WI the gothic wars go smoother for the italians?

In OTL, the byzantine invasion of italy wreaked havoc on the populace, devastating the former jewel of the west. what if this war goes smoother for the denizens of italy, either ending faster or completely prevented? let's say that the ostrogothic leadership fractures for some reason and the byzantines swoop in, conquering italy with minimal resistance by the internally divided ostrogoths, and then lose the province when the arabs or lombards or bulgars become a larger problem. how would italian history be affected by a larger population and better infrastructure? would they be able to reject german and french influence, maybe even reversing the situation altogether?
 
The Lombards would still come down and wreck havoc shortly after. A smoother Gothic War wouldn’t change Italy’s fate.
Would the lombards even risk a migration into a wealthy & developed province? I'm treating the byzantine loss of italy as a given because of various other circumstances, but the arrival of the lombards isn't guaranteed (and also not guarantee to be similar at all to OTL)
 
An alternative could be to have Khosrau choke on a pear or something and the Persians have a civil war. The Romans could then send in more troops and win the war quicker.

Or go the alternate route and avoid Justinian. A different Roman ruler only takes bits of Gothic Italy like Sicily and leaves them as a client state.
 
Would the lombards even risk a migration into a wealthy & developed province? I'm treating the byzantine loss of italy as a given because of various other circumstances, but the arrival of the lombards isn't guaranteed (and also not guarantee to be similar at all to OTL)

Lombards didn’t act upon intelligence that Italy would be vulnerable, they just came hoping to settle down, and they made it because the Empire was stretched too thin to properly defend Italy, which would still be valid even with a shorter Gothic war.
 
Justinian was anything if too stingy with Belisarius. He gave him a small force that dwindled as Belisarius had to garrison more cities and town. The campaign in Italy was horribly mismanaged. There was no unified command structure with Narses and Belisarius arguing with each other. This led to the sack of Milan and many opportunities being missed. It should have been an easy war. Justinian should have prolonged the Eternal peace with Khosrau for as long as possible. He should not have provoked Khosrau in Armenia as well. Justinian should have sent a proper force as well. Once proper resources were put in the otl campaign Italy folded quickly. Justinian smashed the Visigoths in Southern Hispania with a small expeditionary force. What truly doomed the conquests was the plague. Had the plague ship sunk or been delayed by some more decades then the East would not have lost a third of its population. It’s economy and manpower pool would have been intact. Italy swiftly reconquered would have been another manpower and tax base. The original guy put in charge of Italy alienated everyone by charging backtaxes dating to the fall of the West. With this manpower the Visigoths are just waiting to be conquered. They might ally with the Franks so to deal with Frankish raids a defensive strategy should be adopted. Once Hispania is pacified another generation of Emperors could retake Gaul when the current Frankish king dies and the kingdom is split with the various princes and nobles fighting with each other. All this is contingent on Persia being quiet like they were in the 4th and fifth century, so maybe have the Hephthaltes and internal revolts keep Khosrau occupied. If Justinian gets this done he would be seen as one of the best emperors ever. What would really be the cherry on top was him and Theodora having a male heir that Justinian could groom to manage the empire and affairs of state.
 
Justinian was anything if too stingy with Belisarius. He gave him a small force that dwindled as Belisarius had to garrison more cities and town.

I once read a historical novel (so it doesn't have to be exact), which stated that Belisarius had 30k men to defeat the Vandals and demanded 60k men to defeat Ostrogoth Italy, whereas Narses warned form the beginning "that's not enough, you need 100,000 at least".
 
I once read a historical novel (so it doesn't have to be exact), which stated that Belisarius had 30k men to defeat the Vandals and demanded 60k men to defeat Ostrogoth Italy, whereas Narses warned form the beginning "that's not enough, you need 100,000 at least".
That’s not true at all. The total strength of the ERE during Justinian’s day was 300,000 men. That was spread out garrisoning forts, Manning outposts, dissuading invasions, etc. Maurice after the plague had 100000 men on paper and he managed to beat back the Persians and smash the Avars. This was also when he was bankrupt which is a testament to the quality of Roman troops. Justinians gave Belisarius an expeditionary force of a couple thousand men. That dwindled as he had to man new forts and defend cities. Had Justinians kept the peace with Persia and sent and actual army then the Goths would have fallen easily.
 
From what I read, a large part of the reason the Gothic war stalled was the plague of Justinian. The plague was devastating to the Empire and to war-torn Italy. From what I’ve read, death rates were at 40-50% for the plague. This, plus the climactic changes of the 6th-7th centuries, devastated the Empire at a time when it was already stretched over several fronts. I’m not denying that the war had a great effect as well, I mean, twenty years of back and forth devastation isn’t something to scoff at. But I’d like to throw the natural factors in too, because I feel like it gets left out too often.

Now to the scenario. I remember there was an offensive into Dalmatia that was defeated (under a guy named Mundus?). Perhaps if they are more successful there, and Justinian less ambitious, you could see Dalmatia and peninsular Italy ceded to the Romans, with a Gothic buffer state around/north of the Po. In this way, Italy avoids 20 years of devastation by war (but not by plague, I don’t think that can be avoided), and at least has a first line of defense against the Lombards, if they come...
 
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