WI the Germans won at Stalingrad?

FBKampfer

Banned
It really, really, really depends on the degree of their victory.

The campaigns in 1941 alone essentially resulted in the number of German divisions rated as suited for all operations, offensive operations with rest, and all defensive operations switching places with the numbers rated for limited defensive operations, and unsuited for all operations.

Equipment aside, the German army that marched on Stalingrad in 1942 was a skeleton of the one that marched into Russia in 1941.


But if all of Fall Blau goes as well as the opening month, then Germany might be able to get all of Poland, and independent Baltic states.

If their victory is Pyrrhic in nature, then they'll likely only get a mulligan.


But the second is far more likely than the first. The first is, in fact, bordering on ASB. It would effectively require the German generals to roll almost all six's, and nearly every best action is taken. Every gap is noticed, every time a Soviet formation is about to be encircled the Germans march at double time.



But remember, "Moscow determined that Germany would not win, Stalingrad that they would lose, and Kursk how quickly".
 
The term "win" needs to be quantified. How many troops, tanks and aircraft does each side lose? Do the Russians withdraw or throw more forces at Stalingrad?

I seen German losses being serious enough that even if they hold the city they are too exhausted to push on...
 

PlasmaTorch

Banned
The oil must be taken first, and even if "taken", Germans will likely get the burning earth and wells clogged with dirt. Finding necessary to move all the heavy equipment several thousands kilometers before installing it under British and Soviet bombs..no, i`d prefer to just block the river and let Russian to smuggle oil by railroad, under German bombs this time. Over-extension cannot be cured by one more tactical victory. Even Stalingrad is too much.

Even without the destruction of oil infrastructure, it was always going to be a slow and tedious affair to get oil out of maikop and whatnot. The rail lines in the caucasus were single track and of broad gauge, so that limits your transport volume. The rail lines back in the ukraine were single track, but they had already been converted to standard gauge. And back in romania, they apparently didn't have much surplus capacity at the refinerys!

So yes, the capture of maikop and its oil fields wouldn't yield an immediate boost to germany. It would take time before they are able to fully utilise it.

Let me answer the OP realistically.

There is really only one possible scenario where Germany wins Stalingrad--Hitler does not change the Case Blue plans before the dash to the Caucasus mountains on July 23, 1942. It is possible that without this change, Stalingrad would have fallen on the march within a week.

You think the germans could have taken stalingrad by august of 1942? That seems kindof quick.

With such a POD, the German attack grinds down somewhere just east of Grozny. Baku won't be taken.

Germany will have much better defensive positions and would like do better taking some of the port towns on the east side of the Black Sea.

The USSR, in this event, will not be able to successfully dislodge the Germans from Stalingrad or envelop AGS in the winter of 42-43. AGC and AGN have roughly similar performances ITTL.

Agreed. How far east do you think the germans will move after stalingrad, though? Do you think they'll try to move on to astrakhan?

After this the PODs get so divergent that it is hard to guess. The Wallies might change strategy fearing that Russia is "collapsing" (though in reality Russia would still have a very strong 43). Pretty much everything hinges upon what the Wallies do:

If the Wallies attack France in 1943, the USSR by the end of the year forces a German withdrawal from Stalingrad, Grozny, and Maikop. Germany will hold onto Kerch and Rostov. They will withdraw from Rhzev due to manpower shortages and the need to deal with the Wallies. The USSR will be spent in this scenerio, now facing manpower shortages (they have not liberated enough land ITTL to make due on manpower losses, plus the loss of fuel hurts agriculture and their ability to conduct mobile warfare.) The Wallies IMHO (I know Wiking disagrees) get their rear ends handed to them in France, because IOTL this almost happened in Italy...twice (in Salerno and then Anzio). In France, Germany will have a strong Luftwaffe presence and many more men. All in all, the end result is probably an armistice in the east that grants Germany all of Ukraine, Belarus, and the Baltic states. The Wallies like continue the war anyway through a blockade and strategic bombing, still demanding France's independence. The result is that Germany gets nuked and the Wallies pretty much control the post-war world.

That rests on the assumption that the anglo-americans will be able to secure a solid foothold in france, and the germans will be forced to transfer divisions out of russia to stop them. Thats not a likely prospect given that the luftwaffe was still strong in 1943, and the heer hadn't been bled white yet (not as it was by june of 1944).

Remember that during the OTL normandy campaign, the luftwaffe had almost no presence, and the heer only had one division in all of france that was at kampfwert 1 status! And even then, the germans still managed to put up a nasty fight, which could have been even nastier if their positions weren't unhinged by operation dragoon.

The allys won't be able to land in southern france until they clear the germans and italians out of north africa. If they manage to do that by may of 1943 (same as OTL), then the earliest they can pull off an operation dragoon is maybe july of 1943. But thats strictly an aside, because a landing in northern france would probably fail within the first week, thus making supporting operations pointless.

If the Wallies focus on knocking Italy out of the war, the USSR probably still liberates Stalingrad, Grozny, and Maikop. Germany does not withdraw from Rhzev and the USSR is spent economically and demographically. They do not make a peace, as the Wallies are still "in the fight." However, the USSR plays defense. By the time the Wallies land in France in 44, Germany starts collapsing precipitously. The Wallies and Soviets meet in East Prussia in August 1945. The Wallies end up experiencing hundreds of thousands of more casualties. WW2 is a bloodier affair for the Wallies, depending upon how they maneuver this may increase or decrease the prestige of generals such as Patton, Montgomery, etc.

How would the soviets liberate stalingrad? A successful execution of case blue would put them in a pretty tight spot.
 
You think the germans could have taken stalingrad by august of 1942? That seems kindof quick.

The German army was moving quick enough at that point, if the city was undefended it would have fell in a coup de main like countless Russian cities.

Agreed. How far east do you think the germans will move after stalingrad, though? Do you think they'll try to move on to astrakhan?
They will stop at the Volga and move south IMHO.

That rests on the assumption that the anglo-americans will be able to secure a solid foothold in france, and the germans will be forced to transfer divisions out of russia to stop them. Thats not a likely prospect given that the luftwaffe was still strong in 1943, and the heer hadn't been bled white yet (not as it was by june of 1944).

Wallies have a lot of resources and in Africa and Italy they were able to establish footholds, I see no difference in France.

The allys won't be able to land in southern france until they clear the germans and italians out of north africa.

Which falls in May, if not sooner due to Hitler perhaps being less desperate to hold onto Africa to "save face."

How would the soviets liberate stalingrad? A successful execution of case blue would put them in a pretty tight spot.
The SOviet army was huge in 43. They'd take Stalingrad, Grozny, and Maikop by attrition, probably by attacking through the south and straight towards Rostov. Russia had a years worth of oil reserves and would be able to exploit mobile warfare. The Germans, without reason to leave the Rhzev salient in this event, are attrited more in the center as well. The Germans will have to withdraw from Stalingrad by August 43 in this event.
 

PlasmaTorch

Banned
Wallies have a lot of resources and in Africa and Italy they were able to establish footholds, I see no difference in France.

They have alot of resources and material, yes. But their fighting power was still low in 1943, while the germans retained high fighting power. That equation wouldn't change until mid 1944, when the allys gained more experience and the germans suffered a manpower implosion.

And if you look at an actual tally of the forces involved, theres no real comparison to the forces in italy and those in western europe. When operation avalanch took place on september 1943, the nazis had 15 divisions in italy. They 51 divisions in france, belgium and the netherlands. They had another 13 divisions in norway, too.

Considering how badly the anzio and salerno landings went for the allys, its not a stretch to imagine that an even worse disaster would await them in normandy (if they went that route in 1943). They almost certainly wouldn't be able to secure a foothold, and even if they did, the germans could contain them indefinitely and bleed them white the whole time.

Which falls in May, if not sooner due to Hitler perhaps being less desperate to hold onto Africa to "save face."

Yes. But a landing in southern france can't happen until at least june 1943.

The Soviet army was huge in 43. They'd take Stalingrad, Grozny, and Maikop by attrition, probably by attacking through the south and straight towards Rostov. Russia had a years worth of oil reserves and would be able to exploit mobile warfare. The Germans, without reason to leave the Rhzev salient in this event, are attrited more in the center as well. The Germans will have to withdraw from Stalingrad by August 43 in this event.

Huh? The germans will have to abandon stalingrad almost immediately after they capture it? How do you figure?
 
So Axis takes and defends Stalingrad in 42 and 43.

Germans cut off Caucus oil fields, but do not occupy them.

Where do Germans push next in 43 to 44? Another try at Moscow?
Leningrad?
South to the Caucus oil fields?

Torch and N Africa are cleared by US/UK

Is it feasable for the West to push up through Iran to strengthen the Soviet front.

This would mean no Italy in 43 and might even delay Overlord.

It would mean Wallies conquering the Balkans and perhaps a reduced Soviet involvement in East Europe.

Might improve east-West relations

Germany and Japan hang on 6 mos to one year longer.

In Pac, navy and marines still advance in central Pac to capture Marianas and Wii but southern drive to Phil by army is stalled as troops are fed into southern Soviet union.

Berlin might be first city to be nuked in Aug '45 !!!!
 
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