WI the Germans won at Stalingrad?
- Thread starter Nikolas Magllara
- Start date
trurle
Banned
Then they would take the plain between Volga and Akhtuba rivers, severely straining Soviet Union transportation to Caucasus region and may be incurring a critical food shortage to the Soviets. It will not end the war, but Soviets will have more problems mounting offensives in future. The area is easier to defend against Soviets - because west banks of Volga/Akhtuba is typically steep cliff while east banks are flat.
Deleted member 1487
If you're responding to me, in the future please quote my comment so I know. My question was what do you mean by 'win'? What does victory mean to you as the OP? We need a scenario of how they win and what that actually means to be able to say what would happen next. If you don't lay out the scenario all we can offer is different interpretations of what that means to each poster.
Deleted member 1487
When do they take it, when it is held? Lay out a scenario for us.
If the Nazi's take Stalingrad and the entire Western Bank of the Volga near by, then they'll have severed the Soviets from the Baku oil fields which represents about 80% of their oil supply. That much oil will keep the Nazi's very warm and mobile during the winter, while the soviets will find they can no longer get their tanks to move against the Nazi war machine. If the Americans don't pull off a miracle, the Soviets might collapse entirely within a year.
If CalBear is to be believed, Stalin purges his best troops for the "crime" of losing "his" city and the USSR collapses shortly afterwards.
trurle
Banned
The oil must be taken first, and even if "taken", Germans will likely get the burning earth and wells clogged with dirt. Finding necessary to move all the heavy equipment several thousands kilometers before installing it under British and Soviet bombs..no, i`d prefer to just block the river and let Russian to smuggle oil by railroad, under German bombs this time. Over-extension cannot be cured by one more tactical victory. Even Stalingrad is too much.
Soviets loosing oil != Germans got oil.
Check out Maikop oil fields and how the Germans got next to no oil from there once they captured those. We also have a small thing of moving the oil in Germany, refine it, and send it back to the frontlines.
Let me answer the OP realistically.
There is really only one possible scenario where Germany wins Stalingrad--Hitler does not change the Case Blue plans before the dash to the Caucasus mountains on July 23, 1942. It is possible that without this change, Stalingrad would have fallen on the march within a week.
With such a POD, the German attack grinds down somewhere just east of Grozny. Baku won't be taken.
Germany will have much better defensive positions and would like do better taking some of the port towns on the east side of the Black Sea.
The USSR, in this event, will not be able to successfully dislodge the Germans from Stalingrad or envelop AGS in the winter of 42-43. AGC and AGN have roughly similar performances ITTL.
After this the PODs get so divergent that it is hard to guess. The Wallies might change strategy fearing that Russia is "collapsing" (though in reality Russia would still have a very strong 43). Pretty much everything hinges upon what the Wallies do:
If the Wallies attack France in 1943, the USSR by the end of the year forces a German withdrawal from Stalingrad, Grozny, and Maikop. Germany will hold onto Kerch and Rostov. They will withdraw from Rhzev due to manpower shortages and the need to deal with the Wallies. The USSR will be spent in this scenerio, now facing manpower shortages (they have not liberated enough land ITTL to make due on manpower losses, plus the loss of fuel hurts agriculture and their ability to conduct mobile warfare.) The Wallies IMHO (I know Wiking disagrees) get their rear ends handed to them in France, because IOTL this almost happened in Italy...twice (in Salerno and then Anzio). In France, Germany will have a strong Luftwaffe presence and many more men. All in all, the end result is probably an armistice in the east that grants Germany all of Ukraine, Belarus, and the Baltic states. The Wallies like continue the war anyway through a blockade and strategic bombing, still demanding France's independence. The result is that Germany gets nuked and the Wallies pretty much control the post-war world.
If the Wallies focus on knocking Italy out of the war, the USSR probably still liberates Stalingrad, Grozny, and Maikop. Germany does not withdraw from Rhzev and the USSR is spent economically and demographically. They do not make a peace, as the Wallies are still "in the fight." However, the USSR plays defense. By the time the Wallies land in France in 44, Germany starts collapsing precipitously. The Wallies and Soviets meet in East Prussia in August 1945. The Wallies end up experiencing hundreds of thousands of more casualties. WW2 is a bloodier affair for the Wallies, depending upon how they maneuver this may increase or decrease the prestige of generals such as Patton, Montgomery, etc.
There is really only one possible scenario where Germany wins Stalingrad--Hitler does not change the Case Blue plans before the dash to the Caucasus mountains on July 23, 1942. It is possible that without this change, Stalingrad would have fallen on the march within a week.
With such a POD, the German attack grinds down somewhere just east of Grozny. Baku won't be taken.
Germany will have much better defensive positions and would like do better taking some of the port towns on the east side of the Black Sea.
The USSR, in this event, will not be able to successfully dislodge the Germans from Stalingrad or envelop AGS in the winter of 42-43. AGC and AGN have roughly similar performances ITTL.
After this the PODs get so divergent that it is hard to guess. The Wallies might change strategy fearing that Russia is "collapsing" (though in reality Russia would still have a very strong 43). Pretty much everything hinges upon what the Wallies do:
If the Wallies attack France in 1943, the USSR by the end of the year forces a German withdrawal from Stalingrad, Grozny, and Maikop. Germany will hold onto Kerch and Rostov. They will withdraw from Rhzev due to manpower shortages and the need to deal with the Wallies. The USSR will be spent in this scenerio, now facing manpower shortages (they have not liberated enough land ITTL to make due on manpower losses, plus the loss of fuel hurts agriculture and their ability to conduct mobile warfare.) The Wallies IMHO (I know Wiking disagrees) get their rear ends handed to them in France, because IOTL this almost happened in Italy...twice (in Salerno and then Anzio). In France, Germany will have a strong Luftwaffe presence and many more men. All in all, the end result is probably an armistice in the east that grants Germany all of Ukraine, Belarus, and the Baltic states. The Wallies like continue the war anyway through a blockade and strategic bombing, still demanding France's independence. The result is that Germany gets nuked and the Wallies pretty much control the post-war world.
If the Wallies focus on knocking Italy out of the war, the USSR probably still liberates Stalingrad, Grozny, and Maikop. Germany does not withdraw from Rhzev and the USSR is spent economically and demographically. They do not make a peace, as the Wallies are still "in the fight." However, the USSR plays defense. By the time the Wallies land in France in 44, Germany starts collapsing precipitously. The Wallies and Soviets meet in East Prussia in August 1945. The Wallies end up experiencing hundreds of thousands of more casualties. WW2 is a bloodier affair for the Wallies, depending upon how they maneuver this may increase or decrease the prestige of generals such as Patton, Montgomery, etc.
What railroad will the oil be smuggled through exactly? The long route through Iran and then the eastern border of the Caspian? If the Nazi's can't reach Baku, then they'll simply bomb it into rubble.
Even if they only get as far as Grozny before winter sets in, Grozny and nearby Maykop to the west represent 10% of Soviet oil by themselves already. Should it be deemed unfeasible to seize Baku, then it will simply be bombed out of existence. With that 90% of the Soviet oil is gone or at least mostly gone. How will the Soviets dislodge the Germans with no oil? Tanks don't just magically move by themselves.
Also a British raid on France to distract the Germans? They'd be smashed on the Atlantic Wall before achieving anything of note, D-Day only worked because they had a long time to both plan and deceive German intelligence, rushing things would lead to disaster. You can't just land an army of the dense fortifications that make up France's coast willy nilly.
If the Germans are well placed enough that they don't get pushed off the Volga in the winter of 42-43, then they can finish mopping up what's left of the Russian forces north of the Caucasus during the Spring offensive of 43.
The key is being able to hold off the Russian counterattacks during winter, which can be done thanks to the natural defenses that the Volga provides, plus the collapsing Russian supply of oil for their machines.
Of course this doesn't mean that the Germans just win the war, but I don't see them just losing it as easily as they did in OTL.
trurle
Banned
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baku_Air_Defence_Army
"Simply" is any other place on Earth besides Baku
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