Didn't 80% of all the Soviet Union's oil come from the Caucasus? The Red Army cannot do much without fuel.
WI: The Germans win the battle of Stalingrad?
- Thread starter SlyDessertFox
- Start date
Mostly Azerbaijan, though other areas were important. That's why I asked how the Germans are going to get to Baku and stop the shipping across the Caspian.
EvenIF the germans get that far, unlikely
And IF the russians dont sabotage the fields, quite unlikely
how are germans going to get that oil to germany?
And IF the russians dont sabotage the fields, quite unlikely
how are germans going to get that oil to germany?
So continuing with this, lets add to it that Stalingrad is taken in aigust or September. Shortly thereafter, Stalin is killed. The soviet goverment collapses. Then what?
So in the best case scenerio for the Germans the Soviet regime collapses and you have a March 1918 style advance, the local nationalities rise up (and the Germans are willing to cooperate in these far regions) and so small enough forces can advance, small enough that they can live off the land, be supplied by air, or 1918 style run a locomotive with soldiers on board to the next town, occupy, load another train and repeat.
Whatever local Soviets still willing could sabatoge Baku, the Allies could try a Dunsterville force 1918 type operation to occupy the place themselves first, enlisting whomever is still willing to fight to, and failing anything else bomb it from the air or sabatoge it themselves 1916 Rommania style.
While a German fall 42 victory in the Soviet Union would help Germany, I suspect its too late to save North Africa from the Allies, the uboat war would still be lost in Summer 43, but the Germans would be able to make daylight (and maybe even nighttime bombing prohibitive) and have enough strength to make the allies think twice about invading Europe. No way Turkey or anybody else joins the Axis though with the USA well in the game.
Invading Persia from Baku would be very difficult to supply for the Germans, not many good roads and what are good are easily blocked, and I think it would be a dead end for them to try.
Maybe the Allies then contain Germany once North Africa is occupied and do Japan first.
The Germans will never be able to hold onto the conquered regions of Russia, let alone think about attacking further into the Middle-East.
Allied strategic bombing campaigns increased tremendously during 1943-1944 makiing short work of Romanian oil supplies, and with Baku in German hands also the oil fields there and at Maikop and Grozny. Soon enough they will have Axis oil production on their knees.
With that, advances further East will grind to halt. Next up armour and mechanized units will have to retreat out of the East before running out feul and becoming sitting ducks for partisans and any type of Russian/Allied threat from the air.
Without that type of heavy support, the Russians(probably under leadership of Molotov or Beria if Stalin dies) can strike back.
Allied strategic bombing campaigns increased tremendously during 1943-1944 makiing short work of Romanian oil supplies, and with Baku in German hands also the oil fields there and at Maikop and Grozny. Soon enough they will have Axis oil production on their knees.
With that, advances further East will grind to halt. Next up armour and mechanized units will have to retreat out of the East before running out feul and becoming sitting ducks for partisans and any type of Russian/Allied threat from the air.
Without that type of heavy support, the Russians(probably under leadership of Molotov or Beria if Stalin dies) can strike back.
I am still waiting for someone to explain what has happened to the 28th, 51st, 57th, 62nd, 64th, 24th, 65th, 66th, 21st, 1st Guards, 5th Tank, 2nd,8th,16th,17th Air Armies. most of which move down from further north during the course of Blue and appear on the extended northern front and are available on 19 November opposed by minor axis allies with limited capability and a few P3 immobilised by patriotic New Soviet Mice
By 18 November OTL the Germans are 250-300 miles short of Baku (and have a mountain range to cross).
The only way the germans have a hope in hell for Blue is if their army is around 250k men and 1,000 tanks and aricraft larger than it was. Its a very silly thing to do and they were lucky to get away with losing only one field army - admittedly a very big one.
By 18 November OTL the Germans are 250-300 miles short of Baku (and have a mountain range to cross).
The only way the germans have a hope in hell for Blue is if their army is around 250k men and 1,000 tanks and aricraft larger than it was. Its a very silly thing to do and they were lucky to get away with losing only one field army - admittedly a very big one.
Absolutely nothing has happened to the above forces, and they're still available to hit the extended German northern Stalingrad front.
In an alternate time line, something (POD? Turkey joins the Axis???, original Case Blue plan followed and the 2nd (?), German tank army is not diverted to Stalingrad, causing a huge traffic jam, etc.) happens to get the Germans to Baku. The Germans find the refineries and wells sabotaged, just like they were at Maikop.
Instead of following an offensive take Stalingrad block-by-block campaign, the Germans follow a "defensive" strategy (block off northern and southern approaches, take the granaires, sit on Mamayev Hill, and starve out the defenders.
On Nov 17th, the above available Russian forces attack, and just as in OTL, Stalingrad is still a German defeat, just not as big as in OTL. The German forces in Baku are also obliterated. Before they go down, they finish the job of sabotaging the refineries.
After "digesting their gains", the Russians cave in what's left of Army Group South and drive to the Dnieper river, at which point their oil reserves are gone and they're forced to stop.
.
It's always been my view that the Germans were damned lucky not to lose the whole army group in the south.
Taking the city in a meatgrinder battle whilst, suffering heavy losses to Soviet counter & trying push deeper into the Caucasus. Wont end well for them.
He also said the POD was an ass-pull and didnt place real focus on it, because the Germans had almost zero chance of making Case Blue work. Not to mention the whole ''bitter peace'' thing with the Soviets...
It's always been my view that the Germans were damned lucky not to lose the whole army group in the south.
Taking the city in a meatgrinder battle whilst, suffering heavy losses to Soviet counter & trying push deeper into the Caucasus. Wont end well for them.
He also said the POD was an ass-pull and didnt place real focus on it, because the Germans had almost zero chance of making Case Blue work. Not to mention the whole ''bitter peace'' thing with the Soviets...
Reaching Baku and Astrakhan is simply impossible in terms of logistics. Just covering half the distance put Army Group A at the absolute limit of it's supply lines. Any attempt to advance further will falter even in the face of weak Soviet resistance, just as happened IOTL.
Taking Stalingrad off the march is also rather unlikely. The Germans tried IOTL, but Soviet resistance on their northern flank forced them to halt their advance.
Taking Stalingrad off the march is also rather unlikely. The Germans tried IOTL, but Soviet resistance on their northern flank forced them to halt their advance.
so, take away 4 PzArmy (about half the combat power) take Mamayev hill and the grain elevator, defeat Rodimstov's counterattack. Stop the Soviets from trying again and again to retake these positions, without taking casualties and solve the fuel problem in supplying 4 PzArmy down to the Baku.
No worries there then
No worries there then
Oh, the German army will certainly take casualties, but probably a lot less than they absorbed in the battle for the tractor factory, etc. Plus this strategy gets the 4 PzArmy out of city fighting, for which it is ill-suited and not trained, and into open country warfare, for which it is world class.
Hm, Turkey enters WW II on the Axis side sometime during the spring-summer of 42, drives up the Black Sea Coast to meet up with General List (and as a result the Red Black Sea fleet is scuttled), and the German-Turkish forces then go through the Caucasians to Baku. After taking Baku, the German-Turkish forces go north and meet up with the 4th PzArmy at Grozny, solving the 4th's fuel problem. The Reds try to sabotage all and do sabotage some of the refining infrastructure at Baku but leave just enough to keep the German Army and Luftwaffe running (barely).
Definitely lots of worries with this scenario but doable. How doable (i.e., what's the betting line on this scenario vs. say a repeat of the Stalingrad debacle in OTL or a complete loss of all Army Group South forces in the inevitable Red winter attack) I have no idea.
Ironically the German units that reached the oil fields had run out of fuel! It is usually said in histories of the Stalingrad battle that Stalingrad could have been taken in Spring or Summer but the units that could have done it were ordered elsewhere. Maybe if they were ableo to capture Stalingrad quickly the Germans would have found a new supply base and been able to supply their allies with some captured Russian equipment. The Volga would then be cut so Russian industry would be in trouble, some Russian units would have supply problems, and Russian prestige in tatters. Stalin would have lost "his" city and the political consequences could have been quite large, there were already large numbers of "Hiwis" serving with the German army in the south. Encouraging Turkey to join the war on the Axis side would have been easier.
Last edited:
Taking Stalingrad off the march is very difficult; certainly greater penetrations can be made into the city, but stuff Soviet resistance along the Don and German logistic problems make completely occupying the city next to impossible.
stalingrad
I'm curious too know what would have happen if army groups A and B had been kept together and given the same task, instead of being split apart and given different tasks. Since they are really only half army groups doing the job of full army groups.
I'm curious too know what would have happen if army groups A and B had been kept together and given the same task, instead of being split apart and given different tasks. Since they are really only half army groups doing the job of full army groups.
The way I see it that would mean one Axis of advance. I am guessing that, in turn means Wehrmach goes directly toward Stalingrad, masking the Caucasus region and hoping to isolate it when they reach Volga. IIRC, Soviet forces in Caucasus are not significant and while they were able to put a defense, they could not seriously threaten the flank of Army Group South (which I presume it would retain the name).
Further developments are open to question, but in all probability it may be too close to call without a more serious study on the topic than what I wrote here. My guess is the Soviets still win, but with greater losses and Germans get to retreat in relatively good order to Don without suffering loss of an entire army. In fact, I am sketching a replay of Battle For Moscow.
Come 1943, Soviets still emerge more experienced and numerically superior to Germans in men and equipment and it all goes more or less as in OTL.
However, this scenario is highly unlikely given Hitler's fascination with oil fields which he made the primary goal of the entire campaign. How to alter this (and frankly, IMHO, it is impossible) is left as an excersise for the reader.
Further developments are open to question, but in all probability it may be too close to call without a more serious study on the topic than what I wrote here. My guess is the Soviets still win, but with greater losses and Germans get to retreat in relatively good order to Don without suffering loss of an entire army. In fact, I am sketching a replay of Battle For Moscow.
Come 1943, Soviets still emerge more experienced and numerically superior to Germans in men and equipment and it all goes more or less as in OTL.
However, this scenario is highly unlikely given Hitler's fascination with oil fields which he made the primary goal of the entire campaign. How to alter this (and frankly, IMHO, it is impossible) is left as an excersise for the reader.