WI the Germans take Baku?

[NapoleonXIV]

WI the Germans had bypassed Stalingrad and occupied the Baku oil fields? How much would this have changed their position in the war?

 

[CanadianGoose]

Occupy and use? Not too real. Their successes in restoring oil production in North Caucasus were pretty dysmal OTL. Occupy and destroy? This could mean huge (although not fatal) troubles for the USSR and potentially extend the war another year or so. Soviet participation in war was so important for the Allies, that eventually they will supply Red Army as much gasoline as Russians needed, but where frontline will be at this point? Ural does not seem absolutely impossible, although not terribly real too.

 

[Mote]

If they bypass Stalingrad, don't they leave their left flank vulnerable to a Soviet counterattack? As a result, such a bypass would arguably shorten the war in favor of the Allies.

 

[Keenir]

WI the Germans had bypassed Stalingrad and occupied the Baku oil fields? How much would this have changed their position in the war?

Turkey would beat the crap out of them -- and Iran would help.

post-War, they'd collectively scare the pants off of Stalin.

 

[Kvasir]

If the Nazis go South of the [SIZE=-1]Caucasus wouldn't the Georgians, Armenians and Azeri peoples declare independence? Wouldn't these Pro-German states aid the Nazis? And I'm sure Turkey and Persia would want to remain uncommitted to any war. Once Germany looses Stalingrad the war will turn against Germany. The question, I think, is would the Russian loss of Baku and the South Caucasus convince Hitler to take a different strategy?

Personally I don't think the Nazis could win this wat, but prolong the war yes.
[/SIZE]

 

[Amerigo Vespucci]

Repost from another Baku thread.

Capture is possible, but extracting any meaningful oil or natural gas would require a complete collapse of the Soviet Union. If Germany captures Baku, say, after a successful Operation Edelweiss, they're actually in a worse position than in OTL. The Germans are still facing Soviet and British forces in Persia and the southern Caucuses, as well as Soviet forces further east.

An advance along the Caucuses will require Germany not make a serious effort to capture Stalingrad. After all, there are only so many men in the Southern Front, and even if we imagine large reinforcements, the numbers make it virtually impossible to capture both Stalingrad and Baku. So let's go with your idea and say they go for Baku while maintaining a strong north flank in order to prevent a counter-attack out of the Stalingrad area.

The distances involved are immense and will greatly strain the Germans' logistics. Baku is about 1,024 km (637 miles) from Stalingrad. That distance is even longer when you consider the fact that the route will cross at least two mountain ranges and be routed through several mountain passes. The Germans may have locally superior numbers in comparison to the Soviets, but the Soviets have the advantage of terrain. The Soviets will have plenty of changes to imitate the Spartans against the Persians. But let's say the Germans fight their way through the passes, slogging it out against the Soviets, using airborne forces to leapfrog the passes, eventually culminating in a surprise assault on Baku itself sometime in February 1943.

Only if the Soviets in charge are complete morons will the Germans capture the oil facilities intact. After all, the Germans have been attacking in the same direction for months now, and their target has been obvious for nearly half a year. The oil fields near Maikop, 750 miles to the northwest, were not captured intact, despite the Germans advancing far more quickly than our imagined Baku operation. Even a mediocre Soviet commander will have long since arranged for the dismantling or destruction of anything possibly useful to the Germans. Transport is easy across the Caspian Sea, and the facilities at Astrakhan, to the north, are not so far away as to be impossible to move to, especially with water transport available.

If, by some miracle, the Germans do capture the facilities intact or in any shape short of completely destroyed, so what? The oil wells are over 2,000 miles away from the German border. Oil can't just be taken out of the ground and thrown into a tank -- it has to be refined, transported, and used at the location where it is needed. Baku, while it had some refineries, transshipped most of its raw crude to refineries located elsewhere. And that shipment won't be nearly as easy for the Germans as it was for the Soviets.

The fighting leading up to the capture of Baku will have wrecked every available rail line of any use to the Germans. Water transport (which was the main route to refineries at Astrakhan) is useless for the Germans. Every barrel of crude extracted will have to be loaded onto a truck and driven west, through air attack, partisan attack, and all the lovely distractions that a war can provide. Meanwhile, the German Army will be forced to main a strong force in Baku, at the far, far end of the German line. They'll have to defend a thousand-mile flank from potential Soviet counter-attack.

And that counter-attack is coming. By 1943, the Soviets have recovered from the relocation of industry and are quickly building the world's largest tank army. Without the struggles of Stalingrad, they'll be able to launch a massive counter-attack in the spring of 1943. That counter-attack will be aimed squarely at the point where there's the most to gain -- the flank of the Caucuses front. Using the area around Stalingrad as a base, Soviet forces will be able to drive to the Black Sea, in effect cutting off every German in the Caucuses. It will be a disaster of epic proportions for Germany. We're talking a million men cut off from supply or worse.

Germany simply doesn't have enough men to adequately defend the flank of an attack on Baku. In OTL, they were forced to use Romanian and Bulgarian forces to defend the flanks of their attack on Stalingrad, and look where that got them. Much the same would happen if Germany went for Baku. They cannot take Baku without taking Stalingrad, and if they try for Stalingrad, they will not have enough men to drive to Baku.

The loss of Baku will, of course hurt the Soviet POL supply, but by 1943, quite a bit of oil was already coming from the Volga-Ural oil fields. In the event of the loss of Baku, production can be scaled up, but that will take time. To make up the temporary shortfall, lend-lease supplies from the United States can easily make up the shortfall. In OTL, the U.S. supplied hundred-octane aviation fuel to the Soviet Union because Soviet refineries lacked the capacity to produce the higher-grade distillate. The same can happen for lower grades of fuel if damage to the Azerbaijani oil fields hurts production.

 

[Grey Wolf]

Were there any trans-Caucasian oil pipelines in those days to the Black Sea shore ?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[Karlos]

Maybe the germans would have done better if they had gone for a Moscow second round in spring '42. The soviets would sent everything they had to defend their capital, so the germans would have a great battle, closer to their lines, before the soviets would get too powerfull (as they were in next winter). Baku was too far, it gave the soviets time, that is all they needed.

 

[Amerigo Vespucci]

Were there any trans-Caucasian oil pipelines in those days to the Black Sea shore ?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

I haven't run across any, but I haven't looked very hard. There was the Grozny-Tuapse oil pipeline, which connected the Grozny/Maikop oil field to the Black Sea, but that's a far shorter distance and over a lot easier terrain. There's the BTP pipeline, but that was built in 2005. Pipelines are pretty easy to sabotage and disrupt, especially via a strategic bombing campaign. Hit the pump stations, and you've got a nice big fire and knock out the flow until the pump can be repaired.

 

[Chengar Qordath]

Turkey would beat the crap out of them -- and Iran would help.

post-War, they'd collectively scare the pants off of Stalin.

Wasn't Iran kind of invaded and occupied by the Soviets and British at this time? Of course, that just makes it easier for the Allies to bring pressure on them from the south. As for Turkey, given that they stayed neutral until the war was almost completely over, I'm uncertain that they would throw in with the Allies when the Axis is at just about it's strongest point (mid 1942).

 

[Grey Wolf]

I've been thinking about this one and one question comes up - why would the Germans need to get Baku's oil back to Germany ???

Surely, if they succeed in taking Baku they also secure the N Caucasus, and probably manage to move on Astrakhan. Then they could do what the Soviets did with the oil, ship it across the sea and use it at the other end. Astrakhan could then become the major fuel hub for the German armies IN RUSSIA which would solve one Hell of a lot of fuel problems !

Even without Astrakhan, would it be possible to use the oil nearer to source in such a way ?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

If the Germans got into the Caucasus, they would almost certainly split off Germany, Armenia, and Azerbaijan into friendly client states, so they'd be in a pretty secure position to resume oil production.

I think your argument below makes a lot of sense, and this is also good news for the Japanese, I would think.

I've been thinking about this one and one question comes up - why would the Germans need to get Baku's oil back to Germany ???

Surely, if they succeed in taking Baku they also secure the N Caucasus, and probably manage to move on Astrakhan. Then they could do what the Soviets did with the oil, ship it across the sea and use it at the other end. Astrakhan could then become the major fuel hub for the German armies IN RUSSIA which would solve one Hell of a lot of fuel problems !

Even without Astrakhan, would it be possible to use the oil nearer to source in such a way ?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

If the Germans got into the Caucasus, they would almost certainly split off Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan into friendly client states, so they'd be in a pretty secure position to resume oil production.

I think your argument below makes a lot of sense, and this is also good news for the Japanese, I would think.

I'm interested in why it is good news for the Japanese ?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[Geordie]

I've been thinking about this one and one question comes up - why would the Germans need to get Baku's oil back to Germany ???

Surely, if they succeed in taking Baku they also secure the N Caucasus, and probably manage to move on Astrakhan. Then they could do what the Soviets did with the oil, ship it across the sea and use it at the other end. Astrakhan could then become the major fuel hub for the German armies IN RUSSIA which would solve one Hell of a lot of fuel problems !

Even without Astrakhan, would it be possible to use the oil nearer to source in such a way ?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

I think that the issue with this would be one of refinement. The Soviets would almost certainly obliterate the refineries before leaving any area, whether it be Baku or Astrakhan. The Germns then have a huge crude oil supply, but can they utilise it?

This isn't a rhetorical question, i don't know where the nearest refineries would be, or how quickly a destroyed refinery can be rebuilt. Any one how does know....


Geordie

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

I'm interested in why it is good news for the Japanese ?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

I guess that didn't make a lot of sense. I was thinking in terms of WWI probably - it was 4 am.

Although I guess if the Germans are all the way in Baku the Japanese must be on their way through Siberia!

 

[Grey Wolf]

OK, I did a load of research and there's quite a lot to say ! I'll attach a zipfile (if it will) with a webpage in; for copyright purposes click View Source to see the original site... From this webpage :-

Mr. McLeen, a Sovietologist with the British Foreign Office, observed that British and French Air Forces would be able to cause substantial damage both to the oil wells and refineries in Baku and the northern Caucasus, as well as to the system of pumps and oil pipelines between Baku and Batum (Georgia).
According to a report submitted on February 22, 1940, by General Gamelen to French Prime Minister Daladye, since Baku provided 75% of all oil requirements of the USSR, he believed the Soviets would fall into crisis if those sources were lost. "Dependence on oil supplies from the Caucasus is the fundamental weakness of Russian economy. The Armed Forces were totally dependent on this source also for their motorized agriculture. More than 90% of oil extraction and 80% of refinement was located in the Caucasus (primarily Baku).
But by late July 1942, Hitler's quest for Baku seemed well on its way to achieving his goal. The Germans had already captured the city of Rostov and severed the oil pipeline from the Caucasus
(doesn't say from which of the 3 source fields though)

Fortunately, Hitler's strategy of fighting on two fronts-Stalingrad (Volgograd) and the Caucasus-spread his resources too thin and proved disastrous. Field Marshal Erich von Manstein supposedly begged Hitler to transfer the German forces in the Caucasus to his command in order to help the embattled Sixth Army at Stalingrad, but the Dictator's mind was set, "Unless we get Baku's oil, the war is lost." He then proceeded to rant on about the central importance that oil had assumed in warfare and how much fuel a single aircraft or a tank needed. "If I can no longer get you the oil for your operation," he purportedly told the Field Marshal, "you will be unable to do anything."

Manstein tried to argue about the immediate strategic issue-the survival of the Sixth Army but Hitler would not listen. Instead, he focused on how the German armies would meet up in the Middle East and then march through Iran and Iraq as an assembled force finally convening in India, where they would seal their final victory over England

Another problem inseparably tied to fuel production was its transportation. By the summer of 1942, the enemy had blocked the main railways through which oil and its derivative products were transported. Thus, alternate means of transport had to be found via the Caspian and Volga water way. When the Germans also succeeding in blocking this route, transportation was routed through Central Asia.

But the front couldn't wait. Aircraft, armored carriers, trucks, and tanks all needed fuel. Then the naval experts of the Baku oil-tanker fleet performed an incredible feat. For the first time in the world's history, they began towing a floating railway of oil tankers (wagons) from Baku to Krasnovodsk (Turkmenistan) as well as several thousands tons of oil reservoirs from Makhachkala (Dagestan) to Krasnovodsk.

The fleets were extremely overloaded. For example, the amount of oil transport in July 1941 exceeded 10 million barrels of crude oil and fuel. This amount was beyond the technical capabilities of the tanker fleet in Baku. But the demands from Moscow did not take into account the physical limitations. It was then that Baku naval experts hit upon the idea of attaching whole tanks and cisterns to each other by steel ropes and lowering them into the sea by cranes and towing them by steam tugs. This had never been done before in any place in the world and it enabled them to tow up to 35 cisterns together or 3 huge oil tanks (5 ton capacity) with a single tugboat.

Because of the crisis, the State Defense Committee decided to transfer the main forces of oil-workers and oil enterprises of Baku to the regions of Volga, Ural Mountains, Kazakhstan and Central Asia for the enforcement of the oil extraction there. In October, 1942, more than ten thousand oil workers left for these eastern parts.

All the nine drilling offices, oil-expedition and oil-construction trusts as well as various other enterprises with their staffs were transferred to an area near Kuybishev, (Russia Federation in Tartarstan near the Ural Mountains north of Kazakhstan). This city soon came to be known as "the Second Baku" as highly qualified specialists and masters in oil industry were sent there along with more than 5,000 workers as well as half of the equipment
As a result, five new oil and gas fields were discovered and huge oil refinery construction projects were undertaken, including the first pipe line between Kuybishev and Buturslan was built that same year. The pipeline rendered a tremendous service to defense factories saving them the trouble of importing coal and mazut (black oil) from remote places.

A number of large modern oil refineries were also built in Kuybishev. But the most significant assistance that Bakuis gave was in extracting oil from the Devonian Strata in Kuybishev for the first time (June 9, 1944). This historical event marked the beginning of industrial development unprecedented in its volume. It made it possible to restore oil extraction to pre-war levels and Russia became the largest oil industry power in the entire world
Beginning in late 1943 when the front line was gradually withdrawing, the intensification of drilling work in Baku was reestablished. However, the sealing off of a number of wells turned out to be a tragedy. Many of them were impossible to restore. Eventually, the oil extracting had considerably been reduced by the end of the war: in 1945 only 11.5 million tons of oil was extracted

(the webpage in the zip includes the source URL)

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

Try again for attachment

Manage Attachment page wouldn't load, so lets try here

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[Zyzzyva]

WI the Germans had bypassed Stalingrad and occupied the Baku oil fields? How much would this have changed their position in the war?

Gremano-American detente 20 year later is ruined by the actions of Xavier March...

 

[Foreign Shadow]

Judging by what I've read on this thread, ignoring Stalingrad and destroying the Baku Oil Fields would probably be a brilliant strategic move on Hitler's part. It may not win him the war, but it would give him some breathing space. Perhaps destroy the Baku Oil Fields, then concentrate his forces for another go at Moscow?