WI the French finished the Panama Canal

Presuming the French did finish the canal and decided to keep it in their hands for the next few decades, would the US have eventually tried to seize it by force, or would they simply offer consistently higher offers until the French acceded?
 
If the WW1 happens as it does OTL, perhaps the French sell it in order to guarantee American intervention and/or war materials
 
Presuming the French did finish the canal and decided to keep it in their hands for the next few decades, would the US have eventually tried to seize it by force, or would they simply offer consistently higher offers until the French acceded?
Given that the French canal was a sea-level one, which would have been... interesting to build, to say the least. Given that it was undercapitalized, and that the disease régime was worse than anyone expected (partly due to strange habits of some mosquitoes), the OTL canal is simply not feasible.

IF, if I say, the French government decided it was a matter of national pride, took over the private company that was building the canal (Note: private company), and ordered a complete revamping/redesign of the whole project, then, maybe, you could get a French canal built.

But completing the canal requires such a major PoD that we can't possibly discuss much what happens afterwards without knowing HOW the canal managed to get done in the first place.

The only way I can see the canal getting done is if the French government/people decide it's a matter of national honour and/or pride. In which case prying it out of their hands will be like prying Algeria out.

IMO
 
I agree that it would've been a daunting task that requires a POD in the mid 19th century if not earlier, but wouldn't the project have begun paying off its expenses upon opening to international maritime traffic?
 
I think the US would invoke the *Roosevelt Corollary and, at the first opportunity convenient for them, snatch up the canal.
 
And how, exactly, would the United States "snatch up" the canal from the French?
At this time Panama is still part of Columbia, US does as OTL and supports a Panamanian revolution and the canal is now in a different country that demands their sovreign territory back, if France refuses the US helps Panama take it

In any case Panama cannot run a canal on their own and will need to make an agreement with the US to run it, that just happens to give the USA de facto ownership of the Canal
 
And how, exactly, would the United States "snatch up" the canal from the French?


France: hello america.. yeah.. these germans just invaded and are kicking are tails..

America: ok.. we want the canal..

France: No

America: good luck.. maybe we could make a deal with the pointy hat fella's next door..

France: ermmm.. ok
 
In my TL, the French (2nd Empire) do complete the Panama Canal. The United States seizes it along with the rest of France's New World possessions during the Great War (1907-1910).
 
At this time Panama is still part of Columbia, US does as OTL and supports a Panamanian revolution and the canal is now in a different country that demands their sovreign territory back, if France refuses the US helps Panama take it

In any case Panama cannot run a canal on their own and will need to make an agreement with the US to run it, that just happens to give the USA de facto ownership of the Canal
Is there any reason why France wouldn't be willing to lay the hurt on Panamanian rebels to protect its massive investment?

France: hello america.. yeah.. these germans just invaded and are kicking are tails..

America: ok.. we want the canal..

France: No

America: good luck.. maybe we could make a deal with the pointy hat fella's next door..

France: ermmm.. ok
Construction of the Panama canal started a decade after the Franco-Prussian war.
 
Is there any reason why France wouldn't be willing to lay the hurt on Panamanian rebels to protect its massive investment?

It should be pointed out that they weren't even "Panamanian" rebels at first. There was a general civil war in Colombia, and the defeated party (don't remember which) had lost everything but Panama when Roosevelt intervened. The only reason they were still clinging on Panama was because Colombia didn't have a navy to speak of at the time, BTW (Darien is notably hard to travel through). So Roosevelt basically imposed a separatist policy on the rebels that wasn't originally among their aims only to have a free hand in building the Canal.

Assuming the civil war happened on schedule (and that's a pretty big assumption whose feasability we should check before), France would support materially whatever side is more willing to help its interests since the beginning, and so the situation of one party controlling all of Colombia while the other clings on a Panamanian redoubt would be unlikely.

Construction of the Panama canal started a decade after the Franco-Prussian war.

He's talking about WW1. I'd definitely see Roosevelt being enough of a jackass to ask for that in exchange for arms and supplies, but I have my doubts with Woodrow "I might be neutral but I hate the Germans already" Wilson.
 
Could it? As far as French possessions, I can't think of many others that the French wouldn't prize as much or defend fiercely.

It's not like France doesn't have an existing presence in the Caribbean. It controls French Guiana and Guadelope and Martinique. All of which would probably prosper significantly in the event of a French Panama canal. I could imagine the French maintaining significant military and naval strength in the region to defend the Canal, and investing heavily in Colombia as a client state.

The United States is far enough away from the Canal that the distances between the US and Panama, and France and Panama are almost comparable. America has no hope whatsoever of a land invasion, you'd have to march through Mexico and five Central American countries.

The only way to do it is a naval, or naval/marine operation. And frankly, France in 1899 is not Spain in 1899. Their navy, if I'm not mistaken, would kick American's ass, potentially as late as 1910 or later. Even after the US has naval superiority, you'd still need a lot of gumption.

I suspect that a French Panama canal might well butterfly the Spanish American war. The French would probably support Spain. Would America get Puerto Rico? Dunno. Cuba? Well, we didn't get it OTL.
 
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