WI The Francis I wins a complete victory at the battle of Pavia

Not familiar enough with the battle to imagine what a "complete victory" means.

Is this the one where he (OTL) said "All is lost save honor"?
 
Not familiar enough with the battle to imagine what a "complete victory" means.

Is this the one where he (OTL) said "All is lost save honor"?


Yes it was one of the most important battles of the 16th century. At this time the Italian wars were in full swing with Francis I fighting a war against Charles Von Habsburg who ruled both Austria and Spain. Initially the frenchw er winning but at Pavia the French king was captured and ended in a complete defeat for French leading to Austria nearly driving France out of Italy. In this tl Francis wins said battle and what are the consequences.
 
He ends up getting much of northern Italy and pieces of Burgundy but nothing more than that. Knowing Charles, he'll just start another war to reclaim it.

Now a more interesting question is if Francois I dies while he was under Spanish captivity (he almost did die)?
 
If Francis wins at Pavia, he gets Milan back for starters.

He was determined on getting Milan anyways. I agree of that and having a free hand in northern Italy. I'm not sure if the Medici and the Popes would be so friendly to Francis if France is holding lands in northern Italy. I can see the two, along with the Venetians, distancing themselves from France.


 

He was determined on getting Milan anyways. I agree of that and having a free hand in northern Italy. I'm not sure if the Medici and the Popes would be so friendly to Francis if France is holding lands in northern Italy. I can see the two, along with the Venetians, distancing themselves from France.



The shifting alliances in the War of the League of Cambrai demonstrate that well, with France on the Pope's doorstep their relations will grow cold.

Incidentally, that's one of the things I'm planning. :eek:
 
The shifting alliances in the War of the League of Cambrai demonstrate that well, with France on the Pope's doorstep their relations will grow cold.

Incidentally, that's one of the things I'm planning. :eek:

That's one of the things I planning on mentioning (in a mere sentence) in my own time-line.

It'll probably make Charles realize he alone can't govern the whole enchilada and starts grooming his son (or one of his relatives) to take up control of Austria (with or without Burgundy).


 
It depends on what you call a complete victory. Does that include the death or capture of Charles V? Or do you just mean the forces of Charles V are routed?

If Francis I wins at Pavia, he probably would keep the Duchy of Milan (on which he had legal rights, being a descendant of Valentine Visconti) but that would probably cause some troubles with the other North Italian States except for Savoy (since it was in dynastic alliance with France at the time : Francis' mother was Louise of Savoy). That won't bring an end to the Italian Wars, which are going to last longer. The problem of Hapsburg encirclement also remains (Charles V being Holy Roman Emperor and King of Spain).

The question of Naples also remains : Francis I has rights on that Kingdom. However, he would have to cross of all Italy, and I'm not sure that would be easy. I think the French would simply drop their claim on Naples.

If Charles V is captured, we could have a situation that is the reverse of OTL, with Charles becoming prisonner of Francis and later becoming free in exchange for his son being held as hostage in the French court (OTL, Francis I's two sons were sent to the Spanish court in exchange for his liberation when Francis was captured at Pavia). Charles would also have to renounce his rights on Burgundy (like Francis I did for Milan OTL). Yet, the reverse situation didn't stop the War between Francis and Charles OTL, so there would probably be another one and an ATL "peace of women".

If Charles V is killed at Pavia, this would probably cause troubles in his Empire and possessions. This could favor Francis I's situation. But, in my eyes, Charles V being killed at Pavia is rather improbable.

On a side note, Francis could win at Pavia if he avoid the strategic mistakes that made him loose : his canon had to stop firing because Francis I ordered a charge and the French canons would have risked killing their own men had they fired.
 
Indeed if the French victory was specular as that of Charles V, i guess the King of France will pushed for more harsh terms. But it seemed from the battle he only wanted to be Duke of Milan; so i agree on the theory about the split of Italy in two.

A basis however sufficien for Francois I, which will have the possibility to have financial support more great to claim the Imperial Crown. And if he become Emperor, he then tried IMO the conquest of Naples and Sicily...

Probably, it will be the golden century of France in the end.
 
Another butterfly would be that Francis' son Francis III of Brittany would likely have lived past eighteen and became King; TTL's Francis II died very young, many attributing that to his three years as prisoner in Madrid.
 
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Depends how devastating the French victory is is.

And Charles wasn't at Pavia, Francis was.
Exactly. If Charles V is there, then it's going to be a radically different Pavia. So I think the safest bet here is to just make historical Pavia a French victory, which means it can never be as total as the Spanish/Imperial victory.
 
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