WI: The Fourth Crusade sets sail

What if the participants in the Fourth Crusade were able to pay the Venetians for their services? Would they have succeeded in their mission? Would Byzantium have lasted longer?
 
Probably about as successful as the 5th Crusade (Capture a couple of ports and minor cities but unable to really push into Egypt). Byzantium will probably stagger on for a while longer.
 
What if the participants in the Fourth Crusade were able to pay the Venetians for their services?
It would require multiple PoDs. A good part of their incapacity to pay was directly related to their relativly few numbers, as while the crusade was still "popular" the european situation (Imperial-Pontifical wars and troubles, Anglo-French conflicts, etc.) severed part of traditional recruitement.

Would they have succeeded in their mission?
Most probably not. Too few, too badly organized (It was a nobiliar crusade, as the first, but it was clearly more divided), and only a partial strategical view of Egypt.

Would Byzantium have lasted longer?
Hard to say. My guess is it would have continued to decline, but slowly and balkanic focused earlier (maybe butterflying Serbian Empire, by exemple).
 
Well in the Fifth Crusade at one point the Crusaders were offered Jeruselum by the Ayyubids. Perhaps if the fourth had been similarly successful and more cooler heads prevailed.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
Would they have succeeded in their mission?

Their goal was to conquer Egypt and use it as a springboard to take Jerusalem. I think they could have taken Alexandria, but the rest would have been much more difficult.

Would Byzantium have lasted longer?

Most definitely yes. The sack of 1204 was the biggest blow to Byzantium. Before that, it might not have been as strong as it was earlier, but was still doing pretty well.
 
If they sail for Egypt, it means there are more of them and they managed to pay the Venetians.

Assuming no catastrophic storm, they should be able to take Damietta and Alexandria. After that, it's really a question of how much the Ayyubids lost trying to defend their coastal cities. Assuming the Ayyubids over-committed, the Crusaders have a shot to take Cairo. It will be bloody however, and severely sap their strength, meaning they will most likely be unable to effectively control the rest of Egypt, whether its under a central authority or split up ala byzantine successor states.

The continued fighting is likely to destroy the Egyptian economy (especially in lower Egypt) for at least a generation. In the long run, the inability of the Crusaders to co-opt the local Christians, the dwindling number of adventurers and their over-reliance on Venetian-payed mercenaries will probably be their downfall.

Regarding the byzantines, there are so many potential butterflies it could honestly go any number of ways. What is almost certain though is that this benefits them immensely, as the entire Raison d'être of their state and economy is not destroyed in a moment of weakness.
 
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