WI: The Flight to Verannes never happened?

After the storming of the Bastille and the forced relocation of the royal family to Paris, France became a de facto constitutional monarchy, with the revolutionaries effectively forcing the King to approve their laws.

Eventually, King Luis and Marie Antoinette attempted to escape to Austria, but they were re-captured at the town of Verannes, a short distance from the Austrian border, and taken back to Paris. Eventually, the National Assembly, against Robespierre's objections (though he would later change his mind), decided to try the King for treason and sentence both him and his wife to death by the guillotine.

But what if King Louis and Marie Antoinette did not attempt to escape to Austria? Are they still executed by the revolutionaries even if they didn't try to escape? Would the Reign of Terror still occur? Do the French Revolutionary Wars still occur?
 
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Assuming that Louis doesn't do anything even more stupid and cooperates with the Lafayettists then he probably stays in power and France transitions over to an constitutional monarchy for good.
 
Assuming that Louis doesn't do anything even more stupid and cooperates with the Lafayettists then he probably stays in power and France transitions over to an constitutional monarchy for good.
More likely as soon as an anti-revolutionary army gets close enough to Paris and/or French economy suffers even more, the king is blamed for everything and executed.
 
After the storming of the Bastille and the forced relocation of the royal family to Paris, France became a de facto constitutional monarchy, with the revolutionaries effectively forcing the King, now forced to stay in Versailles, to approve their laws.

Eventually, King Luis and Marie Antoinette attempted to escape to Austria, but they were re-captured at the town of Verannes, a short distance from the Austrian border, and taken back to Paris. Eventually, the National Assembly, against Robespierre's objections (though he would later change his mind), decided to try the King for treason and sentence both him and his wife to death by the guillotine.

But what if King Louis and Marie Antoinette did not attempt to escape to Austria? Are they still executed by the revolutionaries even if they didn't try to escape? Would the Reign of Terror still occur? Do the French Revolutionary Wars still occur?
Most likely yes. The French Revolutionary Wars by the way had started well before the flight to Varennes and the Royal family was de facto imprisoned in the Tuileries were they were under constant surveillance. In the best case they would be exiled after the process to Louis XVI but that is pretty easy to arrange also after their failed escape.
The only reason for which Louis XVI and Marie Antoniette tried to escape was because they were virtually prisoners deprived of their freedom and they felt to be in danger and to not be in a safe place (remember who both Louis and Marie Antoinette wanted see the victory of the enemies of France and they hoped to see the armies of Austria and their allies arriving in Paris for freeing them)
 
More likely as soon as an anti-revolutionary army gets close enough to Paris and/or French economy suffers even more, the king is blamed for everything and executed.

Before Varennes the Lafayettists were in control and they remained a powerful force even after Varennes. Without a Varennes level event they should hold on to power and moderate the excesses of the Revolution and completely avoid calamities such as the Reign of Terror and the Execution of Louis. The Lafayettists were strong supporters of maintaining the monarchy and so long as Louis is not seen as helping the invaders then the Lafayettists can continue to maintain the monarchy. Without the chaos of early Jacobin rule I think that the Lafayettists can repel a foreign invasion (they include a number of competent generals) but I don't think that they will attempt a full-blown counter invasion. A lot though depends on Louis cooperating since Lafayette can put only put down so many fires
 
More likely as soon as an anti-revolutionary army gets close enough to Paris and/or French economy suffers even more, the king is blamed for everything and executed.

I think the French government could repel them and Britain may even support France once constitutional monarchy looks stable. The bigger challenge is that Louis XVI is a Charles X type figure who will sooner or later oppose the shackles imposed upon him.

But with a more stable constitutional monarchy for a while, and without the huge public anger caused by the smoking gun of the flight, I think replacing the King in the style of the Glorious Revolution or the July Revolution is more likely.
 
Assuming that Louis doesn't do anything even more stupid and cooperates with the Lafayettists then he probably stays in power and France transitions over to an constitutional monarchy for good.
I think the French government could repel them and Britain may even support France once constitutional monarchy looks stable. The bigger challenge is that Louis XVI is a Charles X type figure who will sooner or later oppose the shackles imposed upon him.

But with a more stable constitutional monarchy for a while, and without the huge public anger caused by the smoking gun of the flight, I think replacing the King in the style of the Glorious Revolution or the July Revolution is more likely.

If you want a more stable French Constitutional Monarchy you need a successful escape of Louis XVI, Marie Antoniette and their children. As Provence and Artois with his sons had already emigrated try to guess who would be the replacement King to install on the throne in place of the traitor Louis XVI who escaping from the country renounced to his crown?
 

raharris1973

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If you want a more stable French Constitutional Monarchy you need a successful escape of Louis XVI, Marie Antoniette and their children. As Provence and Artois with his sons had already emigrated try to guess who would be the replacement King to install on the throne in place of the traitor Louis XVI who escaping from the country renounced to his crown?

Louis Egalité de Orleans?
 
Louis Egalité de Orleans?
Exactly... Louis Philippe, Duke of Orléans better know as Philippe Égalité...
Give him the constitutional crown and will you have as King a supporter of the revolution, whose destiny would be strictly tied to that of revolutionary France
 
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