Of course, but I need my explanations. Those are some crucial events in the war. They ended the war of OTL. And while from the logic of TTL it seems silly to write about them, we percieve things through our OTL prisms. So I feel your TL would be improved by some talk of how the KK army did not lose and KK diplomacy did not blunder.
WI: The First World War ended in 1919
- Thread starter giobastia
- Start date
Of course, but I need my explanations. Those are some crucial events in the war. They ended the war of OTL. And while from the logic of TTL it seems silly to write about them, we percieve things through our OTL prisms. So I feel your TL would be improved by some talk of how the KK army did not lose and KK diplomacy did not blunder.
KK, you mean Austro-Hungarian forces? Well, they could have resisted political disintegration if Emperor Karl launched his proclaim for authonomy before Wilson's demand for independence of Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia. In this timeline it's possible, beacause you don't have the exchange of missives between Germany and US (in October) about armistice, so you don't have the Wilson's demand for independence. This could give Emperor Karl more time to make his promises.
Militarily, in OTL, A-H resistence was broken in the Balkans and, one month after, in Italy. In this timeline you don't have the collapse of the Balkan front and A-H troops in Italy have all their time for a retreat from Piave to Isonzo, to a more short and defendable line. In OTL, general Diaz, persuaded by Entente's allies, launched his Vittorio Veneto offensive only after the advance of the Eastern Army in the Balkans. And he was very reluctant: he was planning for a campaign in Spring 1919 and only the Balkan's offensive induced him to accelerate his timing. The Balkan's breakthrought is fundamental also from a political point of view, because it accelerated the process of ethnical disintegration of A-H army. The Romanians considered the Entente's Eastern army as a liberation force, while the Hungarians in Italy felt their homeland menaced by the southern Entente's advance. They began to spread mutinies in order to come back home and defend their Nation. Czech and Yugoslav nationalism was an old issue (since 1915), but their national independent governments were established only after Wilson's promises... which did not occur in this timeline.
In my alternative TL, the absence of the Wilson's missive and of the Balkan's offensive let the A-H Empire in the struggle for another year.
Militarily, in OTL, A-H resistence was broken in the Balkans and, one month after, in Italy. In this timeline you don't have the collapse of the Balkan front and A-H troops in Italy have all their time for a retreat from Piave to Isonzo, to a more short and defendable line. In OTL, general Diaz, persuaded by Entente's allies, launched his Vittorio Veneto offensive only after the advance of the Eastern Army in the Balkans. And he was very reluctant: he was planning for a campaign in Spring 1919 and only the Balkan's offensive induced him to accelerate his timing. The Balkan's breakthrought is fundamental also from a political point of view, because it accelerated the process of ethnical disintegration of A-H army. The Romanians considered the Entente's Eastern army as a liberation force, while the Hungarians in Italy felt their homeland menaced by the southern Entente's advance. They began to spread mutinies in order to come back home and defend their Nation. Czech and Yugoslav nationalism was an old issue (since 1915), but their national independent governments were established only after Wilson's promises... which did not occur in this timeline.
In my alternative TL, the absence of the Wilson's missive and of the Balkan's offensive let the A-H Empire in the struggle for another year.
Yup. Shorter and simpler.
And what you have just written was what was needed for my total satisfaction. So... Bravo!
Firstly, I'll add to the others welcomes. 
Secondly, can you change the size of your font for the T/L posts? I imagine you are using a separate font for the same reason I do, to make your T/L posts stand out from your replies, but you can achieve that while still maintaining readability simply with the differing font. Times New Roman stands out distinctly from the Verdana that is the Board default.
Now, finally, to my comments:
While an interesting attempt, the ALT ignores a most serious reality, namely Germany's condition in late 1918. The German people were, quite literally, slowly starving to death, were very close to raising the Red Flag of revolt, and had no way to survive another winter. The German Army had shot its last bolt in the failed Spring 1918 offensive, had been driven out of its prepared defenses along most of the Western Front, and was on its heels. Nothing that occurred in the Balkans was going to alter these basic truths.
Others have pointed out the significant, individually nearly insurmountable difficulties with the elements of your scenarios regarding the Western Front and the HSF, combined they create a situation that is unrecoverable short of Irving the ASB paying a visit.
If Germany had not sought terms in October of 1918, it would have been occupied in large part by February 1919, and totally under Entente control and military governance by April 1919 at the latest (with January-Early February a distinct possibility), even with the impact of the Spanish Flu taken into account. No matter how well the German & A/H forces in the Balkans are doing if Berlin and Vienna are under British, French & U.S. control, the war is over (similar to what happened in 1945, when the Heer forces in Italy had no choice but to surrender once Berlin was taken by the Red Army and the entirety of Germany was occupied by Allied troops).
It is unfortunate, since you have clearly put significant effort into the ALT, but the basic, unchangeable realities of 1918 make it an ASBish event.
Secondly, can you change the size of your font for the T/L posts? I imagine you are using a separate font for the same reason I do, to make your T/L posts stand out from your replies, but you can achieve that while still maintaining readability simply with the differing font. Times New Roman stands out distinctly from the Verdana that is the Board default.
Now, finally
, to my comments:While an interesting attempt, the ALT ignores a most serious reality, namely Germany's condition in late 1918. The German people were, quite literally, slowly starving to death, were very close to raising the Red Flag of revolt, and had no way to survive another winter. The German Army had shot its last bolt in the failed Spring 1918 offensive, had been driven out of its prepared defenses along most of the Western Front, and was on its heels. Nothing that occurred in the Balkans was going to alter these basic truths.
Others have pointed out the significant, individually nearly insurmountable difficulties with the elements of your scenarios regarding the Western Front and the HSF, combined they create a situation that is unrecoverable short of Irving the ASB paying a visit.
If Germany had not sought terms in October of 1918, it would have been occupied in large part by February 1919, and totally under Entente control and military governance by April 1919 at the latest (with January-Early February a distinct possibility), even with the impact of the Spanish Flu taken into account. No matter how well the German & A/H forces in the Balkans are doing if Berlin and Vienna are under British, French & U.S. control, the war is over (similar to what happened in 1945, when the Heer forces in Italy had no choice but to surrender once Berlin was taken by the Red Army and the entirety of Germany was occupied by Allied troops).
It is unfortunate, since you have clearly put significant effort into the ALT, but the basic, unchangeable realities of 1918 make it an ASBish event.
Wyragen-TXRG4P
Banned
RN blockade legend, same as the Dolchstoßlegende, really.
The POD should be an early version of Brest-Litovsk, when Germany decides that more territories can be seized in the east once the west is secured.
Not only could the forces of the eastern front be freed earlier but would be larger due to the Central Powers having less territories in the east to occupy.
That would make possible an earlier and stronger spring offensive.
That would make things a lot easier.
That´s called Blitzkrieg and hadn´t been put to the test yet, it was hardly even on the drawing board. It is even faster than allied progress into Germany in WW2, more than 25 years later!
A very large number of troops would be necessary to occupy Germany and perhapse Austria, especially when facing bolchevik agitation and war further east.
Military victories would delay the revolution, as the post-war regimes called it but it would occure nonetheless. Germany may face an all-out civil war bewfore february 1919.
The POD should be an early version of Brest-Litovsk, when Germany decides that more territories can be seized in the east once the west is secured.
Not only could the forces of the eastern front be freed earlier but would be larger due to the Central Powers having less territories in the east to occupy.
That would make possible an earlier and stronger spring offensive.
That would make things a lot easier.
That´s called Blitzkrieg and hadn´t been put to the test yet, it was hardly even on the drawing board. It is even faster than allied progress into Germany in WW2, more than 25 years later!
A very large number of troops would be necessary to occupy Germany and perhapse Austria, especially when facing bolchevik agitation and war further east.
Military victories would delay the revolution, as the post-war regimes called it but it would occure nonetheless. Germany may face an all-out civil war bewfore february 1919.
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Wyragen, yes the POD could also be put in 1917, but in this case the TL change completely. If you don't have Russia at war, then you don't have a Central Asian front, nor other interesting aspects of this AH. And I think that with all troops on Western Front, Germans could win the Spring Offensive. Too many people consider Kaisershlacht as a sort of Ludendorff's version of Ardenne 1944. But it isn't: he had real opportunities to win the war. More divisions and a better planning could make the difference.
@CalBear: an earlier end of war in May could be possible. But the Entente's troops, in May, could never reach Berlin. Their far Eastern target was Rhineland, Saar and Ruhr. If you can launch the offensive in the Western Front in February (in this ATL) you can reach Koln in May.
Second: why HSF sortie is ASBish event? In this TL revolution didn't breakout in Germany, so you don't have any Red Flag over battleships. Revolution broke out after the establishment of Max von Baden's government and when rumors about an imminent armistice were spreading in October. Before October 1918, in Germany, there were many strikes in factories and some mutiny, always brutally repressed. If you eliminate the Baden's Armistice Offer factor, the scenario could change.
Second: why HSF sortie is ASBish event? In this TL revolution didn't breakout in Germany, so you don't have any Red Flag over battleships. Revolution broke out after the establishment of Max von Baden's government and when rumors about an imminent armistice were spreading in October. Before October 1918, in Germany, there were many strikes in factories and some mutiny, always brutally repressed. If you eliminate the Baden's Armistice Offer factor, the scenario could change.
Revolution didn't break out IOTL Germany either, but the HSF still suffered a significant mutiny and nothing will have improved for the Germans in this scenario to prod the HSF enlisted ranks to go onto a suicidal Ride to Glory (we are not talking about the IJN and the Yamato at Okinawa). The HSF is also in such a poor geographic position, and at such a severe qualitative disadvantage by 1918, that it is almost impossible to see them make as far south as the Thames (even getting out of the Baltic approaches would be close to a miracle) especially with the surprisingly good weather conditions that prevailed at the time (the end of October and early November are described as being rather mild and sunny after some rainy weather earlier in the month of October and some rain at the end of the 1st week of November). The entire HSF sortie was a pipe dream, one that had virtually no chance of actually happening and even less chance of achieving anything. This also brings the question of why a massive, utterly decisive, defeat of the HSF, something that would likely replace Trafalgar in British legend, would make the Entente, especially Wilson (who, being the banker, main supplier of material, and source of almost all fresh troops, was in a fairly strong position) decide to go with a new requirement for ending the war, a requirement that was so rare that it was considered revolutionary when FDR sprang it on the world 25 years later. A crushing defeat of the HSF, even assuming it went as well as you posit, seems unlikely to encourage Germany to fight on.
The situation for the Entente in October, was far different than that in May. In May the Western Front was still dominated by German troops in strong fortifications, by October those forces had been largely dislodged from those same fortifications and were exposed to Entente attack in the open or in hasty defenses. German & A/H forces were low on ammunition and heavy guns, had very poor mobility, and were faced by a much better equipped enemy force that was receiving thousands of fresh reinforcements weekly and a veritable Horn O' Plenty in the way of supplies. There was quite literally nothing between the Entente and Berlin except increasingly disorganized and demoralized units. The myth of a strong German Army, ready to fight on except for the civilian betrayal, is exactly that, a myth. The German Army was crushed by the failed Spring Offensive, was in no condition to fight a war of maneuver, and would have been slaughtered had it not been saved by the cease fire.
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The POD should be an early version of Brest-Litovsk, when Germany decides that more territories can be seized in the east once the west is secured.
Not only could the forces of the eastern front be freed earlier but would be larger due to the Central Powers having less territories in the east to occupy.
That would make possible an earlier and stronger spring offensive.
That would make things a lot easier.
That´s called Blitzkrieg and hadn´t been put to the test yet, it was hardly even on the drawing board. It is even faster than allied progress into Germany in WW2, more than 25 years later!
A very large number of troops would be necessary to occupy Germany and perhapse Austria, especially when facing bolchevik agitation and war further east.
Military victories would delay the revolution, as the post-war regimes called it but it would occure nonetheless. Germany may face an all-out civil war bewfore february 1919.
Just a quick aside regarding food intake. 1,600 calories a day for an Adult doing any level of physical work (and even in the cities, most work was brutally physical) IS starvation level. 2,000 calories for adults doing heavy farm labor IS starvation level. The city dweller doing manual labor required a minimum of 2,400 calories a day (2,000 is acceptable in today's far more sedentary world) and farm workers need at least 500 calories more per day. Simply put the average healthy Adult in Berlin would have been losing 1-2 pounds per week, much of it muscle. Six months of that (and the number of calories would have dwindled as the Entente forces advanced) and you get walking skeletons.
Russia rearming with the whites with an aim of consolidating the old russian empire. The White russians only used allied backing to beat the reds. They use further allied aid to rebuild. But red or white, I do not see any Russian government looking at territory loss without trying to get it back in the future. This is where I see the Russians and the Germans formally allying and maybe even bringing in the Japanese as a cobeligerent againt the British empire.
Germans unite, rise again. Ally with the Russians for conquest. Target the British and French empires.
What will Spain and Italy do? Will Italy turn to a nationalistic state like Germany and Russia, will it ally with Britain and France or will it turn to a strict neutral?
Spanish civil war still occurs between nationalists and loyalists, communist party is more like a liberal democracy party. Nationalists still win.
British, French, and Americans burry heads in sand as Russians and Germans consolidate internal power and prepare for next.
Now that tank and aerial warfare is in the open, what effect will that have on the Germans and Russians? Will they go more for naval actions to knock the British out? I still see the French constructing their defences and keeping their tanks in the North. Perhaps the Germans and Russians just make better tanks?
Wyragen-TXRG4P
Banned
I think you are about right about AH. Had AH been weak really Germany would have taken over Austria and made the rest into satellite states before WW1 or soon after instead of turning this thing into an allie.
Ah alrighty then, good that you have clear ideas for the timeline. Yes, you understare right about the spring offensive. What I was thinking about is a scenario where the spring offensive is stronger and earlier but not enough to win the war, mererly to delay any internal revolution so the fighting can last longer into 1919.
Ha, starvation doesn´t take 6 months! What takes time is regaining decent physical strenght once starvation is over. In the war, the winter of 1916-1917 was worst and Germany did get through that one. Hamburg and Berlin is not the same thing.
Had the blockade famine legend been true, WW1 would have been over by 1916 at the very latest(wich opens for a reasonably interesting TL), simple as that.
Ah alrighty then, good that you have clear ideas for the timeline. Yes, you understare right about the spring offensive.
What I was thinking about is a scenario where the spring offensive is stronger and earlier but not enough to win the war, mererly to delay any internal revolution so the fighting can last longer into 1919.Ha, starvation doesn´t take 6 months! What takes time is regaining decent physical strenght once starvation is over. In the war, the winter of 1916-1917 was worst and Germany did get through that one. Hamburg and Berlin is not the same thing.
Had the blockade famine legend been true, WW1 would have been over by 1916 at the very latest(wich opens for a reasonably interesting TL), simple as that.
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