Not the case at all, I'd say it's the opposite, the further back you go, the higher the advantage the Germans have. Why do I think this? The answer is simple: the Franco-Prussian war. A Prussia which had not fully unified Germany absolutely destroyed the French army with their modernized forces. Germany is loads more powerful than Prussia ever was, so we can only imagine how dominating the German would be in this war. IOTL, the French were absolutely demolished at the beginning of World War I and marched straight into German artilllery and machine guns with their marching bands and in good formation. France suffered the highest casualty rates at the beginning of the war during any other time. It wasn't until lots of British help and France realizing that this wasn't the Napoleonic Era that they were barely able to withstand the initial German offensive, halting it at the First Battle of the Marne. As the war dragged on longer, France gradually modernized its army until it was actually pretty good. However, at the beginning of the war they were stuck in the past, and their rifles were heavily outclassed by the very elaborate German rifles. France gets crushed this early on in the war to put it simply, as nothing changes for them to react the same way that they did IOTL, thinking its the Napoleonic Era and marching their men off to German artillery and Machine Guns to die in droves. Simply put, France's army is stuck in the past and only survived IOTL through major British support and realization that this wasn't the Napoleonic Era anymore.
Much agree, combined with an on par or possibly better navy this simply becomes the franco Prussian war 2.0
one caveat though, at what point in the crisis does this flair up. are the Germans smart enough to offer something in piety to the British to buy their neutrality? the British would be concerned about Gibraltar. between the first ( which would be radically more in the German favor ) and the second crisis where the advantage still exists but it is by far not as great if not close to break even in that things will need to go quick to come out a victor.
one needs to separate London and Paris a little. Wilhelm was on the right track of standing for Moroccan independence, while France, Spain and the British were doing more of the imperialistic pact. not saying the Germans were clean in the matter either. however, if Wilhelm was smart enough to give the British something ( like a colony that the Germans really didn't need anyways) it might buy them some breathing room to knock France off.
IF it becomes a war in 05 then the Germans win against France and England while a winner on the sea will simply take some colonies and go back to being imperialists. If Russia attacks, then Russia gets a change of government since they don't even like the war they are in currently let alone another one, however it would galvanize the nation if the Germans were the aggressors and attacked first. however in 05 I am finding it hard to think the Russians are going to do anything.
bottom line morocco is simply a pretext for ground war between Germany and France, if the Germans are quick than the Italians jump in for spoils, and while the British Grumble there is little they will be able to do about it. so not quite World War 1 and the much quicker too. I would assume that this would butterfly away a real world war 1 of the scale that we had in 1914.
1911 is a much different situation with complications to boot, and would get ugly quickly.