During the brutal 1964-85 military dictatorship in Brazil we had some factions inside the government, the main two being the Sorbonne (right wing authoritarian) and the Hardline (far right militaristic), the first wanted a tactic of "surgical interference", where the government should be ruled by the dictatorship, make their reforms and then democratise (see reforms as rolling back left wing reforms and killing targeted individuals), while the second believed that there was this huge communist conspiracy over the country and so the "communists" (read left wing intelectuals, left wing nationalists, center left politicians, and even right wingers if they oppose the dictatorship like Carlos Lacerda) should be terminated
From 1964 until 1967 the sorbonne led, then the hardline ruled until 1974, finally the sorbonne ruled until the end in 1985, and unsurprisingly we had a coup in 1969 since the dictator Costa e Silva died and his VP was from the Sorbornne, so they couped the guy and implanted a three man junta to prevent his VP from taking power
Well, in 1975 it seemed clear that the dictatorship would eventually end, the people were tired of such a government, the economy was stagnating (mostly due the dictatorship own mismanegement, not only the gas crash), but then in 1976 you had the Videla coup in Argentina, against Isabel Perón, and then the most brutal dictatorship from that era was born. That was a signal to the hardline that there was still time to try to regain power, and so we had a attempted coup in 1977, something very minor that was stopped due the Sorbornne dictator Ernesto Geisel meeting his enemies and then firing them.
The coup failed mostly because it was leaked that Sylvio Frota (the main hardline figure at the time and the would be dictator) had called for a meeting with the Generals, and so Geisel called for a meeting with them earlier, convinced them to not act and them met Sylvio Frota and fired him.
Now, it's quite difficult for such a coup to work, even if he meet the generals before without Geisel knowing, he still has to deal with his american masters and the fact that most of the generals would say "No", so I gonna add one PoD = Brezhnev dies in 1976, and his sucessor declares, in response to Videla's coup, that he will bring socialism and free south america from the USA sponsored dictatorships.
So we got this renewed soviet effort in latim america, and Frota manages to meet the other generals undetected.
Assuming the coup works and the Hardline is back in power, what happens next?
Calling brazilian experts
@ByzantineCaesar @Vinization @Guilherme Loureiro @Monter and @Geon can you comment what would be the US response to this?
From 1964 until 1967 the sorbonne led, then the hardline ruled until 1974, finally the sorbonne ruled until the end in 1985, and unsurprisingly we had a coup in 1969 since the dictator Costa e Silva died and his VP was from the Sorbornne, so they couped the guy and implanted a three man junta to prevent his VP from taking power
Well, in 1975 it seemed clear that the dictatorship would eventually end, the people were tired of such a government, the economy was stagnating (mostly due the dictatorship own mismanegement, not only the gas crash), but then in 1976 you had the Videla coup in Argentina, against Isabel Perón, and then the most brutal dictatorship from that era was born. That was a signal to the hardline that there was still time to try to regain power, and so we had a attempted coup in 1977, something very minor that was stopped due the Sorbornne dictator Ernesto Geisel meeting his enemies and then firing them.
The coup failed mostly because it was leaked that Sylvio Frota (the main hardline figure at the time and the would be dictator) had called for a meeting with the Generals, and so Geisel called for a meeting with them earlier, convinced them to not act and them met Sylvio Frota and fired him.
Now, it's quite difficult for such a coup to work, even if he meet the generals before without Geisel knowing, he still has to deal with his american masters and the fact that most of the generals would say "No", so I gonna add one PoD = Brezhnev dies in 1976, and his sucessor declares, in response to Videla's coup, that he will bring socialism and free south america from the USA sponsored dictatorships.
So we got this renewed soviet effort in latim america, and Frota manages to meet the other generals undetected.
Assuming the coup works and the Hardline is back in power, what happens next?
Calling brazilian experts
@ByzantineCaesar @Vinization @Guilherme Loureiro @Monter and @Geon can you comment what would be the US response to this?