WI the far right brazilian coup of 1977 succeded?

[Gukpard]

During the brutal 1964-85 military dictatorship in Brazil we had some factions inside the government, the main two being the Sorbonne (right wing authoritarian) and the Hardline (far right militaristic), the first wanted a tactic of "surgical interference", where the government should be ruled by the dictatorship, make their reforms and then democratise (see reforms as rolling back left wing reforms and killing targeted individuals), while the second believed that there was this huge communist conspiracy over the country and so the "communists" (read left wing intelectuals, left wing nationalists, center left politicians, and even right wingers if they oppose the dictatorship like Carlos Lacerda) should be terminated

From 1964 until 1967 the sorbonne led, then the hardline ruled until 1974, finally the sorbonne ruled until the end in 1985, and unsurprisingly we had a coup in 1969 since the dictator Costa e Silva died and his VP was from the Sorbornne, so they couped the guy and implanted a three man junta to prevent his VP from taking power

Well, in 1975 it seemed clear that the dictatorship would eventually end, the people were tired of such a government, the economy was stagnating (mostly due the dictatorship own mismanegement, not only the gas crash), but then in 1976 you had the Videla coup in Argentina, against Isabel Perón, and then the most brutal dictatorship from that era was born. That was a signal to the hardline that there was still time to try to regain power, and so we had a attempted coup in 1977, something very minor that was stopped due the Sorbornne dictator Ernesto Geisel meeting his enemies and then firing them.

The coup failed mostly because it was leaked that Sylvio Frota (the main hardline figure at the time and the would be dictator) had called for a meeting with the Generals, and so Geisel called for a meeting with them earlier, convinced them to not act and them met Sylvio Frota and fired him.

Now, it's quite difficult for such a coup to work, even if he meet the generals before without Geisel knowing, he still has to deal with his american masters and the fact that most of the generals would say "No", so I gonna add one PoD = Brezhnev dies in 1976, and his sucessor declares, in response to Videla's coup, that he will bring socialism and free south america from the USA sponsored dictatorships.

So we got this renewed soviet effort in latim america, and Frota manages to meet the other generals undetected.

Assuming the coup works and the Hardline is back in power, what happens next?

Calling brazilian experts

@ByzantineCaesar @Vinization @Guilherme Loureiro @Monter and @Geon can you comment what would be the US response to this?

 

[Galba Otho Vitelius]

I think getting a really far right regime in a major Latin American country runs into the problem of the American government, which favored right wing Latin American dictatorships but not insane ones. And this was particularly the case during the Carter administration (1977-81). You could do something with a Reagan administration or a reallly right wing Ford administration (but there Kissenger's pragmatism is a problem), but though there were people within the Reagan administration who wanted to back the Argentine junta over the UK over the Falklands, obviously this wasn't done and never really came close to happening.

The Falklands issue points to another problem. That is that insane right wing militaristic regimes have a marked tendency to attack other countries! That is why they don't last, even in a world supportive of authoritarianism and economic inequality in general.

My guess is that you get a parallel to the Argentine regime and the Falklands, with French Guinea in this case playing the role of the Falklands.

 

[Vinization]

A POD in the USSR isn't enough, I think. We need a POD that leads to a larger, stronger and more brutal left-wing guerrilla movement. What if they managed to murder Costa e Silva in the Guararapes airport in 1966? The results could be horrible, especially if João Paulo Burnier's plan to explode multiple bombs in Rio de Janeiro and then blame the opposition for the civilian deaths succeeded. Our opposition leaders both at home and abroad could end up getting straight up murdered instead of suffering rather convenient deaths: to use the Chilean example, we would have more exiles/dissidents dying like Orlando Letelier (killed by a car bomb) rather than like Eduardo Frei Montalva (poisoned).

As it stands, this coup against Geisel would likely have failed, but it could have led to things like a general strike followed by a countercoup. Our pro-redemocratization movement could have grown much stronger and faster than it did thanks to this development, and we could protests as large as the ones mobilized by the Diretas Já! a few years earlier.

EDIT: Having giant demonstrations like these in, say, 1977/1978 rather than in 1984 could've had all sorts of interesting butterflies. MDB would've become a lot stronger.

As would strikes like this one.

 

[Geon]

Well, I can safely say at this time the U.S. wasn't particularly picky about who was in power in Latin America so long as they weren't in bed with the Soviets. As far as U.S. policy is concerned I think we can safely say it will be business as usual. Unfortunately.

 

[Gukpard]

A POD in the USSR isn't enough, I think. We need a POD that leads to a larger, stronger and more brutal left-wing guerrilla movement. What if they managed to murder Costa e Silva in the Guararapes airport in 1966? The results could be horrible, especially if João Paulo Burnier's plan to explode multiple bombs in Rio de Janeiro and then blame the opposition for the civilian deaths succeeded. Our opposition leaders both at home and abroad could end up getting straight up murdered instead of suffering rather convenient deaths: to use the Chilean example, we would have more exiles/dissidents dying like Orlando Letelier (killed by a car bomb) rather than like Eduardo Frei Montalva (poisoned).

As it stands, this coup against Geisel would likely have failed, but it could have led to things like a general strike followed by a countercoup. Our pro-redemocratization movement could have grown much stronger and faster than it did thanks to this development, and we could protests as large as the ones mobilized by the Diretas Já! a few years earlier.

We cannot take a PoD earlier than Geisel ascendency, because then we do not need Sylvio coup, we would just need to continue the hardline rule

 

[Vinization]

We cannot take a PoD earlier than Geisel ascendency, because then we do not need Sylvio coup, we would just need to continue the hardline rule

Well, we need Geisel to seriously screw up then, and I don't know if that's possible. He might've started to open up the country, but he was still a cold blooded murderer.

Just ask Zuzu Angel and João Goulart about that...

Can't we just have Médici deciding that his successor shouldn't be Geisel, but rather someone like Milton Tavares, the already mentioned Frota or vice-president Augusto Rademaker? These guys would probably go apeshit after MDB's crushing victories in the 1974 general elections, probably blaming the opposition's success on assistance from the USSR, Cuba or whatever boogeyman is spawned from their feverish, paranoid minds.

 

[Gukpard]

João Goulart

I'm pretty sure it was proved that João Goulart wasn't murdered, unless my information is faulty...

Well, ok, so we got Rademaker and he screws up, the coup happens and Sylvio is in power, the protests occuor as you predicted, then what? Does he Tianmen all over them?

 

[Vinization]

I'm pretty sure it was proved that João Goulart wasn't murdered, unless my information is faulty...

Well, ok, so we got Rademaker and he screws up, the coup happens and Sylvio is in power, the protests occuor as you predicted, then what? Does he Tianmen all over them?

Jango's death was awfully convenient, and happened just months after Videla's coup in Argentina. Still, I might be wrong. The exile probably ruined his health, after all, and he was in his late fifties.

Rademaker was a hardliner too, but maybe Frota (who would probably be an important member of his cabinet) decides he isn't tough enough for whatever reason (a very bloody false flag attack, perhaps?) and overthrows him. I don't this could generate as many protests as a coup against Geisel would, since I doubt Rademaker would ease the censorship of the press, and there would be SNI, CIE, CENIMAR and CISA agents everywhere. Still, he might be kicked out of power by the more moderate generals if he causes an international incident by massacring demonstrators/strikers or anything similar, especially if Carter is the president of the US.

 

[Gukpard]

Jango's death was awfully convenient, and happened just months after Videla's coup in Argentina. Still, I might be wrong. The exile probably ruined his health, after all, and he was in his late fifties.

Rademaker was a hardliner too, but maybe Frota (who would probably be an important member of his cabinet) decides he isn't tough enough for whatever reason (a very bloody false flag attack, perhaps?) and overthrows him. I don't this could generate as many protests as a coup against Geisel would, since I doubt Rademaker would ease the censorship of the press, and there would be SNI, CIE, CENIMAR and CISA agents everywhere. Still, he might be kicked out of power by the more moderate generals if he causes an international incident by massacring demonstrators/strikers or anything similar, especially if Carter is the president of the US.

Right, so let me phone @Geon

Geon, the new brazilian dictator Sylvio Frota just passed with tanks over people calling for democracy, this is a massive public relations victory for the USSR, how does the USA reacts?

 

[Vinization]

Right, so let me phone @Geon

Geon, the new brazilian dictator Sylvio Frota just passed with tanks over people calling for democracy, this is a massive public relations victory for the USSR, how does the USA reacts?

I'm not the poster in question, but I think Jimmy Carter would scream bloody murder. He wouldn't do anything else though, he was just too weak for that. It's business as usual, unless the moderate generals decide Frota is going too far.

 

[Gukpard]

I'm not the poster in question, but I think Jimmy Carter would scream bloody murder. He wouldn't do anything else though, he was just too weak for that. It's business as usual, unless the moderate generals decide Frota is going too far.

Everyone can comment, time for a Brainstorming!

Assuming he says "Bloody murderer", I'm pretty sure Sylvio would fall, since it means that the USA reproves his rule, it's completely untenable without Washington supporting his actions

What if we have Gerard Ford, or let's say, Barry Goldwater instead?

 

[Vinization]

Everyone can comment, time for a Brainstorming!

Assuming he says "Bloody murderer", I'm pretty sure Sylvio would fall, since it means that the USA reproves his rule, it's completely untenable without Washington supporting his actions

What if we have Gerard Ford, or let's say, Barry Goldwater instead?

Business as usual, especially since Kissinger would remain Secretary of State. That guy aided the Khmer Rouge, Frota is nothing next to them. His main opponents, as I've said and repeated in the posts before, would be the Sorbonne-aligned generals. If they're pushed to the side for long enough and eventually replaced by hardliners, however, they may not be much of a threat.

 

[Geon]

I'm not the poster in question, but I think Jimmy Carter would scream bloody murder. He wouldn't do anything else though, he was just too weak for that. It's business as usual, unless the moderate generals decide Frota is going too far.

I have to agree with @Vinization sadly. TV would be showing the images of the massacre all over the world. President Carter would publicly condemn the act in "the strongest possible terms." And then would go right back to business as usual. As long as you didn't have a rabid Marxist socialist in power in Brazil, from Carter's perspective the attitude would be - the right wing devil you know is better then the communist devil you don't know.

 

[ByzantineCaesar]

Assuming he says "Bloody murderer", I'm pretty sure Sylvio would fall, since it means that the USA reproves his rule

That never bothered Geisel. Carter and him were not in good terms either. The end result was that Geisel terminated military cooperation with the United States and sought other international partners for high tech cooperation, e.g. nuclear cooperation with West Germany, which pissed the US off.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

My guess is that you get a parallel to the Argentine regime and the Falklands, with French Guinea in this case playing the role of the Falklands.

1) Brazil has has territorial claims against French Guinea?
2) Might Brazil actually win its Falklands War equivalent?

 

[Gukpard]

1) Brazil has has territorial claims against French Guinea?
2) Might Brazil actually win its Falklands War equivalent?

That never bothered Geisel. Carter and him were not in good terms either. The end result was that Geisel terminated military cooperation with the United States and sought other international partners for high tech cooperation, e.g. nuclear cooperation with West Germany, which pissed the US off.

Business as usual, especially since Kissinger would remain Secretary of State. That guy aided the Khmer Rouge, Frota is nothing next to them. His main opponents, as I've said and repeated in the posts before, would be the Sorbonne-aligned generals. If they're pushed to the side for long enough and eventually replaced by hardliners, however, they may not be much of a threat.

Could Sylvio Ally with Videla and make a double attack on the Faklands? Did Brazil already possessed two more aircraft carriers?

 

[Vinization]

Could Sylvio Ally with Videla and make a double attack on the Faklands? Did Brazil already possessed two more aircraft carriers?

Fighting a war with Britain, a great power we have no quarrel with, would be straight up insane. Plus, I would be surprised if Frota lasted that long, considering the war happened in 1982. Something like that would definitely doom him.

EDIT: We also had only one carrier, and it was tiny.

 

[Gukpard]

Fighting a war with Britain, a great power we have no quarrel with, would be straight up insane. Plus, I would be surprised if Frota lasted that long, considering the war happened in 1982. Something like that would definitely doom him.

EDIT: We also had only one carrier, and it was tiny.

Right, you have a point

Ah, one thing:

That never bothered Geisel. Carter and him were not in good terms either. The end result was that Geisel terminated military cooperation with the United States and sought other international partners for high tech cooperation, e.g. nuclear cooperation with West Germany, which pissed the US off.

Well, Geisel tried to revive the pragmatic equidistance from WWII and had a large base of support, something Sylvio won't have, isn't that enought to bring him down on your opinion? The USA just making agressive remarks about a hardline unpopular government?

 

[Dan1988]

What if we have Gerard Ford, or let's say, Barry Goldwater instead?

If it was Gerald Ford, I don't know if he would do much unless he won against Carter - and even then, he's still a moderate Republican type that would prefer not to rock the boat too much. After all, we still have Kissinger, the delicate balance of terror, and all that. So much of the renewed emphasis on human rights and free elections and all that would not be there. Goldwater is more difficult to come up with for a reaction to Brazil - basically, my assumption would be Reagan pre-Diretas Já as one potential guide.

 

[Dan1988]

1) Brazil has has territorial claims against French Guinea?

Not so much that as leftover delusions from the Jânio Quadros era, where he thought it would make the map look more beautiful if Brazil took control of French Guiana. Fortunately, cooler heads prevailed on that portfolio, which ultimately lead to Jânio's resignation because he was all around batshit insane. Having said that, if the dictatorship revived that, that would be a scary proposition, since France could just basically curbstomp the Brazilian military, even at full capacity, without much in terms of problems. And the US would probably acquiesce and let France do its thing, despite the whole "backyard" thing and all that jazz.