WI the extent of the French Mutiny in 1917 is known to the CP.

Significant sections of the French army suffer a collapse in morale after the failure of the Nivelle Offensive in April into May 1917.

OTL the French were able to conceal this from the Germans and the British were able to take up the slack for most of he year until the French army recovered its morale.

WI German intelligence was able to pick up on the mutiny (from deserters fleeing a firing squad perhaps). Would the Germans launch an offensive ASAP or would they continue to hold the defensive in the West until they were sure Russia was beaten.

Would the Germans abandon their prepared positions and attack? IMO they would try and the French army would pull together quickly and inflict heavy losses. Could this lead to a success for the British offensive in Passchendaele against a German army drained of reserves?
 
The french didn't stop fighting during the "mutiny". And the germans weren't in a better situation.
 
The french didn't stop fighting during the "mutiny". And the germans weren't in a better situation.

Xgentis

Agreed. The French troops were unwilling to attack again after the total mess that was the Nivelle Offensive but Petain's reforms managed to restore the bulk of moral fairly quickly and the French were still definitely winning to fight to defend the country.

It could actually have led to a big boost for the allies if the Germans had learnt and tried a big offensive. Either they go head to head with the British, which would probably reduce allied losses compared to Haig's attack at Passendale. Or they think the French are on their last legs and attack them. This is more defensive terrain I think and few things would boost French determination I suspect than a German attack.

Steve
 
The consistent theme of the Dynamic Duo was defeat Russia first and only then attack France. They have even withdrawn back to the Siegfried Line in accord with this strategy. So now they have some vague intel about French mutinies. Are they going to do a 180? I have trouble envisioning Ludendorff at his manic deciding to suddenly launch an all out offensive in France. And even if he did the more cautious Hindenburg would rein him in.

The most aggressive action that I could possibly see resulting is a medium sized attack meant to take Rheims plus 1-3 small probing attacks dispersed along front. If the main attacks Rheims quickly and easily then it could spur the Dynamic Duo to launch a Paris offensive. Unfortunately I conceive that outcome as extremely unlikely because most of the French units involve in the mutiny were willing to fight defensively. So either the Germans fail completely or they take Rheims but with fairly heavy losses.

Either way the Heer quickly learn that the French are willing to defend but not willing to attack. This means the Dynamic Duo needs less troops to defend against the French sectors of the Front. This frees up more reserves to use against the BEF resulting Haig's offensives doing significantly worse.
 
most french units where willing to defend; although a few refused to go to the front and relieve other units; so its not impossible that the Germans could attack a section of the front suffering from confusion and disorganization and break through to a degree

but i have to say that such a strategy is IMO stupid

ALL of the armies where teetering and having morale problems in 1917 (the British got some nasty blow back from their dominion units after 3rd ypres)... France is the STRONGEST opponent Germany is facing; even with the mutiny
 
The french didn't stop fighting during the "mutiny". And the germans weren't in a better situation.

I don't see the words 'stop fighting' being used by me.

And why put 'mutiny' in quotation marks like that? Are you implying that there was no French Mutiny in 1917? If so then why was there a 'spike' in executions for mutiny in those months of 1917?

Anyway, my point was what would the Germans do if they discovered that there were SIGNIFICANT morale problems in he French army. Would the Germans stick to their 1917 strategy OTL or would they risk an offensive?

IMO they would try an offensive because they were becoming desperate to end the war. After all it was desperation that had forced them to risk US entry into the war by launching unrestricted submarine warfare.

I think that they would probably make a small breakthrough. The French would stop them and the Germans would suffer a drop in morale even greater than OTL. I think that because of the U boat problem the British would still attack in Flanders but with fewer German reserves they MAY break through and take Ostend. I also think that the ludendorf offensive of March 1918 would be subject to significant changes and perhaps even cancelled.
 
most french units where willing to defend; although a few refused to go to the front and relieve other units; so its not impossible that the Germans could attack a section of the front suffering from confusion and disorganization and break through to a degree

but i have to say that such a strategy is IMO stupid

ALL of the armies where teetering and having morale problems in 1917 (the British got some nasty blow back from their dominion units after 3rd ypres)... France is the STRONGEST opponent Germany is facing; even with the mutiny

Have to agree; the French Mutiny in 1917 was, all things considered, quite tame by the normal standards of mutiny. A major German offensive would probably just kill the mutiny entirely, or at least result in the issue being put aside until after the offensive was stopped.

Now, if the Germans were smart and had some good agents/intelligence, they might find some way to stir the mutiny into a real problem for France. Are there any radical French political figures who might be convinced that this is their time to strike? If nothing else, spreading rumors about a massive crackdown on the mutineers/a new Nivelle-esque offensive might work, though once again I'm not sure if that would be within German capabilities.
 
Have to agree; the French Mutiny in 1917 was, all things considered, quite tame by the normal standards of mutiny. A major German offensive would probably just kill the mutiny entirely, or at least result in the issue being put aside until after the offensive was stopped.

Now, if the Germans were smart and had some good agents/intelligence, they might find some way to stir the mutiny into a real problem for France. Are there any radical French political figures who might be convinced that this is their time to strike? If nothing else, spreading rumors about a massive crackdown on the mutineers/a new Nivelle-esque offensive might work, though once again I'm not sure if that would be within German capabilities.



Maybe fire some salvoes of propaganda leaflets into the French trenches. "We won't shoot if you don't" or similar. With any luck this might cause fights between the French Infantry and Artillerymen if the latter did fire. But of coiurse with US intervention the French have it at the back of their minds that they are bound to ultimately win, just so long as they don't collapse, so a defensive attitude, as the mutineers wanted, was a practical option.
 
The Germans knew that mutinies were happening in the French Army after the Nivelle Offensive; but they never had the impression that the French Army had stopped fighting.

Even a proponent of offensive warfare like General von Gallwitz, who had good intelligence about mutinies on the French side, didn't consider an attack; he was too busy fending off French attacks in the Verdun sector.
 
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