WI : The Erythraean Expedition

[RogueTraderEnthusiast]

So I've been toying with the idea of a Roman East Africa, just because the idea intrigues me.

If we posit a scenario where Justinians renovatio imperii is slightly different. Rather than trying to reunite the whole Empire in one go, the goal is just Carthage and Italy.

To achieve this, he gives Belisarius an army that is larger than he did in OTL. Large enough to take and hold Carthage and rapidly take Italy (EDIT : Why did I say Egypt?!) . - I'm taking the role that this succeeds with very few casualties, thus avoiding the damage of the Gothic Wars. This then leads to the Romano-Gothic fortification of the Alps to provide long-term security for the area. Justinian then sets up the "Office of Restoration" - essentially a military planning and diplomatic bureau whose sole purpose is to expand the Empire westwards. Part of this reason is to make sure Belisarius (who with more reinforcements has conquered Italy much more rapidly), is able to be back in the East in advance of a Persian invasion (without having to resort to tricking them in Ravenna) - which as per OTL there is a victory that leaves the ERE somewhat secure. Italy is pacified and (somewhat) loyal, as is part of Africa.

If we assume Narses (or someone else) is the head of the Office of Restoration, we now have a very popular general in Belisarius. This is where the title of this what if becomes relevant. With all this, Justinian is wary of Belisarius, and decides that with his ability to conquer far afield, and wanting to be rid of a politically dangerous general, that Belisarius is to conquer the lands of the Blemmyes, and bring all of East Africa under Roman rule. (I.e. Push the Frontier South). Belisarius, as IOTL isn't actually looking to rebel, and as such goes ahead with it - taking some Goths, Numidians, and Roman troops.

What sort of Expedition could he put together, drawing on Gothic and Roman manpower that Justinian will provide, and how far could the Erythraean Expedition feasibly go? What resources would they be finding (I'm under the impression that Ivory and Gold are not unlikely finds). What are the consequences of your plan?

 

[RogueTraderEnthusiast]

Bump

I'd like to add, that a justification (economic) is that the Romans thought that Somalia was the main source of Cinnamon (it was not), which leads to the rather amusing situation of planning to invade and take the Somalian city-states, only to find there isn't anything there. It does mean however that these city-states can continue to fund Belisarius whilst he is there, simply because he can skim the trade revenues of any city that submits to him. The fact that the Somalia were about to gouge the Romans of gold for Cinnamon (as importing it was cheap), does provide an economic base for Belisarius. First in tapping into the trade, and then in taking control over it. If the only traders (i.e. city states) are Roman-Somali, then all the money there can support invasions further south.

 

[RogueTraderEnthusiast]

Bumpity-bump? Anyone?

 

[r3ddbar0n]

This is an interesting idea. It's not far fetched, but Justinian would be best to focus on those areas neigh immediately after the start of his reign. It sort of runs into complications because those city states were under defacto control of the Himyar until the Himyarite fell to Aksum in 527. It's not impossible, but sort of unlikely, unless Justinian is trying to become an early equivalent of the Ottoman Empire than can control trade to western Europe. Likely goods would be ivory, slaves, tortoise shells, exotic animal skins. I recall something about an ancient form of rubber that the Egyptians used, but can't explicitly remember the full details of it. Just as a warning though, Justinian is really big on religious and ideological unity, which explicitly does not work in the Indian Ocean context of East Africa and Arabia at the time. Missionaries and the spreading of faith is fine, but the major ideological suppression of paganism that Justinian was fond of will destroy the trading culture that led to the conquest of those areas in the first place. There is a reason that Sufi Islamic traders were able to thrive here and Salafist ones were not, and its because the Indian ocean, by and large is a cross cultural melting pot for the largest civilizations of the ancient world, and widespread religious persecution would not have worked out well if you wanted people to keep trading with you.

 

[RogueTraderEnthusiast]

I see what you're saying - it might be wiser (from an apersonal planning perspective), but I don't think it would fit Justinian, nor many other Emperors to do it straight away - simply because Justinian needs the Empire to be stronger in Europe before expanding into new frontiers. But that is how I read it.

The way I see the public justification is as above - that is where the Cinnamon comes from right? If we conquer it, we can grow more, sell it more cheaply, and have less gold leave the Empire (A permanent economic issue for the Romans). I've already stated the real one. The scale of how much the Empire is being gouged doesn't need to be transparent to see that this could be a benefit.

I think that I'd probably be able to get around that, odd as it sounds because of Belisarius, and the distances involved. He's negotiated and fought his way through Carthage and Italy, defended against Persians and crushed riots. When it comes to handling groups of people of different faiths and ideas, and working with them, I can't think of anyone else at the time. Arian Goths and Vandals, Latin Rite Numidians and Berbers and Greek Rite Romans - whilst those are all Christian, we can't discount how... tempetuous their relationships could be. If Belisarius is able to navigate that, then I think he may have the pragmatism, distance and thus free reign to bring the region under Roman rule, with the Greek Rite being spread. I would have to see if there is a precedent in the Empire, but providing a fiscal incentive to convert (i.e. institute a pagan tax on trade? How drastic would the reaction that be in your opinion?) is something I could see being done.

Belisarius, Exarch of Erythraea/Opone. (There are three really nice places for a capital in the entire region in my opinion. Modern Dijoubti works and can guard the gulf of aden. Berbara is pretty good, but both are very close to the Empire Proper. If Belisarius goes further east and south - then I'd go with Opone (Modern Hafun/Xaafun). Fortify the sand-spit with stone and/or wood, and then you have a natural fortress that even Constantine would envy. Plus, it was already a major trade hub.

I would if he'd rename it, and if so - Belisaropolis, or Justiniapolis

 

[Anawrahta]

I see what you're saying - it might be wiser (from an apersonal planning perspective), but I don't think it would fit Justinian, nor many other Emperors to do it straight away - simply because Justinian needs the Empire to be stronger in Europe before expanding into new frontiers. But that is how I read it.

The way I see the public justification is as above - that is where the Cinnamon comes from right? If we conquer it, we can grow more, sell it more cheaply, and have less gold leave the Empire (A permanent economic issue for the Romans). I've already stated the real one. The scale of how much the Empire is being gouged doesn't need to be transparent to see that this could be a benefit.

I think that I'd probably be able to get around that, odd as it sounds because of Belisarius, and the distances involved. He's negotiated and fought his way through Carthage and Italy, defended against Persians and crushed riots. When it comes to handling groups of people of different faiths and ideas, and working with them, I can't think of anyone else at the time. Arian Goths and Vandals, Latin Rite Numidians and Berbers and Greek Rite Romans - whilst those are all Christian, we can't discount how... tempetuous their relationships could be. If Belisarius is able to navigate that, then I think he may have the pragmatism, distance and thus free reign to bring the region under Roman rule, with the Greek Rite being spread. I would have to see if there is a precedent in the Empire, but providing a fiscal incentive to convert (i.e. institute a pagan tax on trade? How drastic would the reaction that be in your opinion?) is something I could see being done.

Belisarius, Exarch of Erythraea/Opone. (There are three really nice places for a capital in the entire region in my opinion. Modern Dijoubti works and can guard the gulf of aden. Berbara is pretty good, but both are very close to the Empire Proper. If Belisarius goes further east and south - then I'd go with Opone (Modern Hafun/Xaafun). Fortify the sand-spit with stone and/or wood, and then you have a natural fortress that even Constantine would envy. Plus, it was already a major trade hub.

I would if he'd rename it, and if so - Belisaropolis, or Justiniapolis

If the Romans(Byzantines) intend to control the Cinnamon trade, I would expect the romans to set up a trading factory, and then exert pressure on the local producers and merchants to grant favorable privileges to eventually monopolize the Cinnamon trade and production.This would increase Roman presence and a prelude to future conquest. However, Djibouti and Gulf of Aden is extremely far from the Roman base of power in the eastern M. Sea and would overextend communications and supply- a potential fiasco. As a result I would doubt Justinian would risk humiliation and shell resources that could be used to restore the Roman empire in Europe in a bold attempt to get rid of Belisarius. I'm not doubting the abilities of Belisarius and Romans, it's just that a military conquest of E.Africa without significant prior presence of the Roman navy is a bit of stretch.
To make your scenario possible, Anastasius I Dicorus gives incentives for Roman traders to establish themselves in Djibouti, with factories established which allows the romans to gain direct access to a indian ocean trade. At the same time, Anastasius I invests in building up a navy that would allow them project power further down the Red sea into the indian ocean, and could be useful in a war against Sassanid Iran(could attack Sassanid ports and shipping).

 

[Anawrahta]

Then an unfortunate incident at the factories compel the romans to send a puntive expedition that conquers Djibouti and possibly somalia.

 

[EmperorOfTheNorthSea]

Hmm, like people say the Indian ocean is a melting pot for different cultures and religions so Justinian might not do the best job but his successor might be able to clean it up and make it profitable.

Also If the Byzantines get a good Red sea naval presence going then could they directly attack Mecca later on in history if the Arabs start acting a bit too antsy? What would be cool to see if the Byzantine Army could set up a permanent presence at the Kaaba and allow people to pray and all but be unarmed and thoroughly checked and basically hold it all Hostage so if anyone tries to attack then the black stone gets smashed or something.

Might be fun to see the Byzantines do this to essentially boss around the Muslims to do their bidding, although after a couple of years there will probably be something like assassinations or whatnot that get Mecca back in Muslim hands or something.

Also, Byzantine trade factories sound fun. A Byzantium based Hansa-like structure might be cool.

 

[RogueTraderEnthusiast]

@EmperorOfTheNorthSea - what might be an interesting twist, is if we assume Mohammed/Alt-Mohammed isn't affected in Arabia proper (there is a balance I think that might allow this), his flight to Axum may well be a flight INTO the Roman Empire, which could radically change his philosophy.

An Arabian Caliphate that sees itself as the natural ally of Rome would be a powerful force that could take Persia and maybe even Central Asia - before going east to India.

Mecca might be the holy capital of this Empire, but it could well be ruled from Muscat.

Alternatively, Mohammed could well be considered Christian, and merge Caeseropapism with his ideas, and declare himself the new Roman Emperor. (Although how he'd be seen as legitimate I don't know. Marriage perhaps?

 

[EmperorOfTheNorthSea]

what might be an interesting twist, is if we assume Mohammed/Alt-Mohammed isn't affected in Arabia proper (there is a balance I think that might allow this), his flight to Axum may well be a flight INTO the Roman Empire, which could radically change his philosophy.

I think that would probably nerf Islam in the long run by esssentialy turning it into yet another one of the many many many many Christian Heresies at the time. Could be wrong though.

An Arabian Caliphate that sees itself as the natural ally of Rome

Not sure how that would work, although if they did it would mean that ERE gets good trade deals and doesn't have to worry about it's southern borders as much. If you get an eccentric enough Byzantine Emperor they could maybe get the Caliphate recognized as the (Southern?) Roman Empire. Although you would need a Byzantium that is much more religiously tolerant to christian heresies at least.

 

[Isfendil]

I think that would probably nerf Islam in the long run by esssentialy turning it into yet another one of the many many many many Christian Heresies at the time. Could be wrong though.



Not sure how that would work, although if they did it would mean that ERE gets good trade deals and doesn't have to worry about it's southern borders as much. If you get an eccentric enough Byzantine Emperor they could maybe get the Caliphate recognized as the (Southern?) Roman Empire. Although you would need a Byzantium that is much more religiously tolerant to christian heresies at least.

Manichaeism surviving? Hmmmmm?

 

[Anawrahta]

A greater roman naval presence in in the red sea and indian ocean may be extremely useful in a war future war against Sassanid Iran or the Muslim Arabs(assuming no butterflies). This fleet could raid Iranian ports during a war and provinces in E.Africa and Arabia could check Sassanian expansion. Also the Byzantines may develop commercial/political interests in Southern and Southeast asia and further monopolize the Indian ocean trade through trade factories.

 

[DominusNovus]

You'd have the Byzantines trying to supplant their co-religious trading partners in Axum, as the trading power in the region. I am skeptical.

First, you have the logistics of it, which are very unfavorable, sans a canal suitable for troop transports and supply ships.

Second, you have the diplomatic problems of attacking a peaceful state.

Third, you again have the logistics of trying to beat that state at its own game, in its back yard, while you're far from home.

 

[RogueTraderEnthusiast]

You'd have the Byzantines trying to supplant their co-religious trading partners in Axum, as the trading power in the region. I am skeptical.

First, you have the logistics of it, which are very unfavorable, sans a canal suitable for troop transports and supply ships.

Second, you have the diplomatic problems of attacking a peaceful state.

Third, you again have the logistics of trying to beat that state at its own game, in its back yard, while you're far from home.

1) Understandable, whilst it is more difficult that invading Carthage or Italy - that is mainly the point, it is hard to deploy, but nearly as hard to come back. The phrase "honourable exile" probably applies well to the strategy I'm proposing here.

2 & 3) I understand where you're coming from here, I think it is fair to say that leaving Axum as a Roman-aligned state is probably wiser than invading it, which leaves the Blemmyes and Somali city states, which as with all invasions, have the home turf advantage. A thoughtful planner probably would have to provide something to allow passage and support. Perhaps giving Axumite traders a preferential status? Maybe even offering to surrender some gains in OTL Djibouti (if successful) - which gives Axum a strong position still in trade, but the Romans still get to control what they think is the cinnamon producing region of Somalia. Admittedly they might not get that, instead they might discover coffee (whilst this is very early, the history of the discovery of coffee is vague and apocryphal at best).

This has me thinking that besides intimidating a few allies into a more client-state status south of Egypt (and conquering the Blemmyes), that Axum might have to be left alone, instead having Belisarius making trade offers, and if timed just right, to offer to bring Abraham in line, and reunite S.Arabia with Axum. If Abraham has already submitted (cursed timelines just making this more likely), then a trading rights agreement combined with the idea that a Roman Somali coast would provide security and an ally that is more practical against Persians and a rebellious S.Arabia. Defending against the Sassanids must have been a concern for them, since it would only be in 570 that they invaded Yemen. I'd be inclined to think that such an invasion may be stepped up if the Romans aren't having to re-invade Italy - an economic war with the Romans becomes all the more important if they are stronger.

Alternatively, considering that after Kaleb there seems to be about 5/6 Kings in rapid succession, the Romans may find a claimant/usurper who would quite happily become a client state in exchange for being placed on the throne. This could appeal - Roman client state in Axum, and then the King of Axum can legitimise the reconquest of Yemen - which the Romans had been wanting for centuries. Plus, Romans on the Horn are the perfect way for the Roman sphere to counter the Sassanids.

Welp, now that I've had this 1:30 thought dump... umm, Imma sleep!

 

[DominusNovus]

The logistics are still overwhelmingly bad. Also, Axum has Adulis, they don't need Djibouti.