WI The Eruption of Mt Vesuvius destroys Neapolis instead of Pompeii?

SunDeep

Banned
WI, due to meteorological butterflies caused by human action (let's say, during a training session, a Roman legionnaire overshoots his target ITTL, leaving his pilum stuck high in a tree. A few days later, this conductor attracts a lightning strike, starting a local fire which is large enough to have a significant impact on weather patterns a month down the line), the prevailing wind in Campania happens to be blowing toward the west instead of the south east at the time of the eruption of Mt Vesuvius on August 24th & 25th, 79AD? As such, the town of Pompeii is largely spared, and the town of Neapolis (which would IOTL later become the city of Naples) is destroyed and buried by the eruption instead. What happens afterwards?

ATL Vesuvius Eruption.jpg
 

Saphroneth

Banned
Pompeii was, IIRC, destroyed by a pyroclastic flow. Those are governed as much by the geometry of the summit as by the wind direction. (They're a result of momentary interruption of the erupting column, and what happens then is that the column collapses and rolls down the side of the volcano).
It might well be plausible for there to be a pyroclastic flow headed towards Neapolis, but getting there is another matter (pyroclastic flows are flows, and for the most part they act like a liquid and flow downhill. It's entirely possible that a pyroclastic flow might end up in the sea due to topography)
 

SunDeep

Banned
Pompeii was, IIRC, destroyed by a pyroclastic flow. Those are governed as much by the geometry of the summit as by the wind direction. (They're a result of momentary interruption of the erupting column, and what happens then is that the column collapses and rolls down the side of the volcano).
It might well be plausible for there to be a pyroclastic flow headed towards Neapolis, but getting there is another matter (pyroclastic flows are flows, and for the most part they act like a liquid and flow downhill. It's entirely possible that a pyroclastic flow might end up in the sea due to topography)

Even IOTL, the pryoclastic flows were actually concentrated toward the west and north west, with Herculaneum bearing the brunt of these. Of six flows, only the penultimate two reached Pompeii IOTL; and if the crucial influencing factor of wind direction is blowing the other way, it could well escape ITTL. With the wind direction strengthening rather than counteracting the momentum of the prevailing westerly pyroclastic surges ITTL, it could well be possible for a couple of them to strike Neapolis.
 
Even IOTL, the pryoclastic flows were actually concentrated toward the west and north west, with Herculaneum bearing the brunt of these. Of six flows, only the penultimate two reached Pompeii IOTL; and if the crucial influencing factor of wind direction is blowing the other way, it could well escape ITTL. With the wind direction strengthening rather than counteracting the momentum of the prevailing westerly pyroclastic surges ITTL, it could well be possible for a couple of them to strike Neapolis.

If Pliny the Elder still decides to sail his fleet to join Pomponianus at Stabiae, then he stands a better chance of surviving ITTL. Meanwhile, Pliny the Younger at Misenum has a worse time of it TTL. He probably decides to flee the town sooner than he did OTL.

Cheers,
Nigel.
 

SunDeep

Banned
So ITTL, would Pompeii rise to become the biggest city in the Campania region in the place of Naples? If you go far enough down the line, could you even see Italy unified ITTL by the Duchy/Kingdom of Pompeii? Neapolitan culture and science made such a significant contribution IOTL; will Pompeii simply fill the gap as TTL's Napoli, or will TTL simply have to manage without?
 
So ITTL, would Pompeii rise to become the biggest city in the Campania region in the place of Naples? If you go far enough down the line, could you even see Italy unified ITTL by the Duchy/Kingdom of Pompeii? Neapolitan culture and science made such a significant contribution IOTL; will Pompeii simply fill the gap as TTL's Napoli, or will TTL simply have to manage without?

ALL THE DYING BUTTERFLIES!
 

SunDeep

Banned
ALL THE DYING BUTTERFLIES!

Now, come on. I'm well aware that there will be a vast number of butterflies caused by Neapolis' destruction and abandonment (and Pompeii's continuing survival), and these will probably have a profound effect upon the course of history across the entire world. I'm just asking whether those butterflies will be small, leading to relatively subtle changes and a vaguely recognisable world by the time we reach the present day, or massive, leading to a present-day world which has been altered to the extent that it would be virtually unrecognisable?
 
Now, come on. I'm well aware that there will be a vast number of butterflies caused by Neapolis' destruction and abandonment (and Pompeii's continuing survival), and these will probably have a profound effect upon the course of history across the entire world. I'm just asking whether those butterflies will be small, leading to relatively subtle changes and a vaguely recognisable world by the time we reach the present day, or massive, leading to a present-day world which has been altered to the extent that it would be virtually unrecognisable?

Well it depends-Who knows, there could have been a possible ancestor of an ATL future emperor in Pompeii (or emperor slayer) or an ancestor of someone who actually did become emperor later happening to be in Neapolis at the time-we wouldn't know because they probably were not important enough to document that. Alternatively, Vesuvius taking out Neapolis could lead to different actions by Titus in dealing with the aftermath and could in turn butterfly the events that led to his untimely death by sickness-that alone has wide reaching effects on the Roman Empire and the future of Europe.

On a side note, this seems like it would effect the fleet stationed at Misenum.
 
On a side note, this seems like it would effect the fleet stationed at Misenum.

That's the fleet that Pliny the Elder led to try and help people living on the coast near Versuvius.

Pliny the Younger letter to Tacitus said:
He was at Misenum in his capacity as commander of the fleet on the 24th of August [sc. in 79 AD], when between 2 and 3 in the afternoon my mother drew his attention to a cloud of unusual size and appearance. He had had a sunbath, then a cold bath, and was reclining after dinner with his books. He called for his shoes and climbed up to where he could get the best view of the phenomenon. The cloud was rising from a mountain -- at such a distance we couldn't tell which, but afterwards learned that it was Vesuvius. I can best describe its shape by likening it to a pine tree. It rose into the sky on a very long "trunk" from which spread some "branches." I imagine it had been raised by a sudden blast, which then weakened, leaving the cloud unsupported so that its own weight caused it to spread sideways. Some of the cloud was white, in other parts there were dark patches of dirt and ash. The sight of it made the scientist in my uncle determined to see it from closer at hand.

He ordered a boat made ready. He offered me the opportunity of going along, but I preferred to study -- he himself happened to have set me a writing exercise. As he was leaving the house he was brought a letter from Tascius' wife Rectina, who was terrified by the looming danger. Her villa lay at the foot of Vesuvius, and there was no way out except by boat. She begged him to get her away. He changed his plans. The expedition that started out as a quest for knowledge now called for courage. He launched the quadriremes and embarked himself, a source of aid for more people than just Rectina, for that delightful shore was a populous one. He hurried to a place from which others were fleeing, and held his course directly into danger. Was he afraid? It seems not, as he kept up a continuous observation of the various movements and shapes of that evil cloud, dictating what he saw.

Ash was falling onto the ships now, darker and denser the closer they went. Now it was bits of pumice, and rocks that were blackened and burned and shattered by the fire. Now the sea is shoal; debris from the mountain blocks the shore. He paused for a moment wondering whether to turn back as the helmsman urged him. "Fortune helps the brave," he said, "Head for Pomponianus."

At Stabiae, on the other side of the bay formed by the gradually curving shore, Pomponianus had loaded up his ships even before the danger arrived, though it was visible and indeed extremely close, once it intensified. He planned to put out as soon as the contrary wind let up. That very wind carried my uncle right in, and he embraced the frightened man and gave him comfort and courage.

So the fleet was affected by the eruption in OTL, since it sailed close to the volcano. ITTL, it's going to be sailing into the wind, so won't be able to travel so quickly and might actually be safer than OTL. Pomponianus OTOH, will have been able to launch his ships sooner than IOTL.


Cheers,
Nigel.
 
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