What if seven southern states (South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas) seceded in 1860-1 as IOTL, but for whatever reason Lincoln is persuaded to just evacuate federal posts in that territory and let them go. He meets with commissioners sent by the CSA to Washington and eventually some sort of "confedexit"agreement is hammered out.
There will be an argument that the CSA would have attacked the (rest of the) USA anyway, but its not conclusive that this is on the cards, and for the sake of argument lets say this doesn't happen. And you can substitute Seward, Hamlin, or Douglas for Lincoln to make this work.
So by the end of 1861 seven slave states have left the USA peacefully and formed the Confederacy, and are negotiating with Washington over issues such as access to the Mississippi and compensation for federal property within those states. The other six slave states are still in the USA. What happens after that?
I'm posting this because I think this scenario is more likely than the "CSA army curb stomps the USA army" scenarios that we more often get.
There will be an argument that the CSA would have attacked the (rest of the) USA anyway, but its not conclusive that this is on the cards, and for the sake of argument lets say this doesn't happen. And you can substitute Seward, Hamlin, or Douglas for Lincoln to make this work.
So by the end of 1861 seven slave states have left the USA peacefully and formed the Confederacy, and are negotiating with Washington over issues such as access to the Mississippi and compensation for federal property within those states. The other six slave states are still in the USA. What happens after that?
I'm posting this because I think this scenario is more likely than the "CSA army curb stomps the USA army" scenarios that we more often get.