WI: The English Armada succeeds?

Couldn't matters get even worse for Spain in the southern Netherlands? If the Atlantic fleet is destroyed, how would the army be supplied?


Um the Spanish road, that's,how. Spain rarely used the direct sea route after Henry VIII boroke with Rome. They would land troops and supplies in Genoa and march them up via Milan and Lorraine to the Spanish Netherlands.
 
Um the Spanish road, that's,how. Spain rarely used the direct sea route after Henry VIII boroke with Rome. They would land troops and supplies in Genoa and march them up via Milan and Lorraine to the Spanish Netherlands.
Agreed, certainly if you consider the OTL situation of the Spanish troops at that time, which was already rather bad (lack of payment for example. Still I would say that the results of a (more, if not entirely) succesful English Armada would mean some advantages for the Netherlands. At best it would mean an even worse fincancial status for Spain and a larger focus on England. This would lead to a more advantages situation for the Netherlands, but noting dramatic. Still, if the Dutch manage to gain Ostend, Bruges and Antwerp after the war, that would mean a major change for the Dutch Republic, even if it is just a relatively small area landwise.
 
But was that the case in the 1590s? I know it was later on.

No. The Caribbean at this point was mostly worthless. The Spanish had killed most of the natives and removed most of the gold and apart from cattle gone wild and some agriculture thier value was purely strategic.
 

JJohnson

Banned
Ok, I have thought about it and I think that the most likely situation for the Netherlands will be the capture of Den Bosch and other minor places in that area. They will probably be able to prevent the fall of various towns in the early 1600's, as Spain will have less money to accomplish such a thing. With a bit of luck the Dutch can prevent the fall of OStend. So the Dutch are in a better position, which makes that in a later stage of the war (possibly after a similar truce as OTL), so the Dutch are able to focus on the south of the Netherlands (and not Twente as OTL), so they are able to capture Sluis, Bruges, Damme, connect to Ostend (or recapture it, but I like the idea of Ostend never falling) in Flanders, Antwerp in Brabant and Venlo, Maastricht and other parts of Gelders Overkwartier (like Roermond) and Overmaas (control of the river Meusse).

Assuming England or France gains control of Dunkirk, this would limit sea access of the Southern Netherlands to Nieuwpoort.

Interesting 'butterfly' that I hadn't considered here. If the Dutch do better here in the revolt, would the Southern Netherlands have simply been a part of the Netherlands from the start? And with that, no Belgium, and an overall larger Netherlands? That would be an interesting exercise for that country as to the evolution of its linguistic and religious situation - which side gains prestige and gains power within the country over time. Cool stuff!
 
Interesting 'butterfly' that I hadn't considered here. If the Dutch do better here in the revolt, would the Southern Netherlands have simply been a part of the Netherlands from the start? And with that, no Belgium, and an overall larger Netherlands? That would be an interesting exercise for that country as to the evolution of its linguistic and religious situation - which side gains prestige and gains power within the country over time. Cool stuff!
As I said, I don't think the Dutch will be able to conquer all of the Southern Netherlands. If we assume a Eighty year war that goes a bit better than OTL, than the places I mentioned (Ostend, Bruges and Antwerp) are the most likely candidates to be captured by the Dutch. Since these probably were three of the most important cities in the southern Netherlands, almost closing of the Southern Netherlands from the sea, this alone would mean interesting butterflies, especialy if the fall of Ostend can be avoided (meaning it remains a protestant city). Antwerp is such a good port, it will be used as a port and will develop into an important and rich town, a town that probably will not accept having no influence in the Estate-General (especialy since it will probably gain a large protestant minority if not majority because protestants migrating towards Antwerp). Combine that with a major protestant Ostend, it could mean the end of the generality lands. This means an important change in Dutch internal politics. A change that could mean that the Netherlands will try to recapture more of the Southern Netherlands in later wars to strengthen Brabant and Flanders (and Gelderland), something the republic wasn't interested in OTL.

I don't think thiswill lead to all of the Southern Netherlands ending up Dutch, as I doubt they will be that interested in Hainaut, Namur or Luxemburg besides fortress cities to protect the Netherlands, but I consider it likely that a larger part of the Southern Netherlands ends up Dutch than OTL did.
 

JJohnson

Banned
What would you figure as a timeline for this Netherlands, if you had to guess?

So far, we have:

1588-89: Spanish Armada/English Armada, ending in decisive English victory, dampening Spain's ability to project power

How about having someone other than the Earl of Leicester go in to help the Netherlands, someone who doesn't rankle them, keeps public support, and enables the Dutch revolt to go better.

After this loss of its armada, Spain has to declare bankruptcy again, but can't resupply with gold and silver from the New World. Combine this with the Battle of Gibraltar in 1607, and, through pure luck, the survival of Admiral van Keemskerk, with Prince Maurice not halting the march to Dunkirk (or going elsewhere?), and perhaps the Spanish can be forced into a treaty rather than truce, yielding the Southern Netherlands to the Dutch in their entirety. If Dunkirk's not eliminated, you still get the Dutch East Indies Company, a bigger Dutch navy, and a fully united Netherlands. That being the case, it's possible Dutch (the language) will trickle down south at the expense of Walloon.
 
How about having someone other than the Earl of Leicester go in to help the Netherlands, someone who doesn't rankle them, keeps public support, and enables the Dutch revolt to go better.
Actualy Leicester's incompetence made the Dutch provinces band together again and pull together and basicly beat the Spanish back again. So, I would let him stay.


After this loss of its armada, Spain has to declare bankruptcy again, but can't resupply with gold and silver from the New World. Combine this with the Battle of Gibraltar in 1607, and, through pure luck, the survival of Admiral van Keemskerk, with Prince Maurice not halting the march to Dunkirk (or going elsewhere?), and perhaps the Spanish can be forced into a treaty rather than truce, yielding the Southern Netherlands to the Dutch in their entirety.
No, the Spanish would not accept that. They would not make peace with a protestant nation. Besides that the Spanish position in the Netherlands was still way too strong to be beaten back so easily, even with a deteriorating financial situation. Don;t forget, Spain went backrupt OTL too and the Netherlands wasn't able to defeat the Spanish. Besides that the Dutch financial situation wasn't that great either. That only happened during the 12 year truce, when the Dutch basicly went colonizing around the world and trading around Europe (which was way more profitable than the early colonisation attempts).




What would you figure as a timeline for this Netherlands, if you had to guess?

So far, we have:

1588-89: Spanish Armada/English Armada, ending in decisive English victory, dampening Spain's ability to project power

If I would make a guess, this would happen:

The Netherlands is in a slightly better position than OTL and manages to conquer Den Bosch and Venlo in 1598. Besides that, they manage to supply Ostend (ok, I will admit that it is unlikely, but I can see it happen), the seige continues, but Maurice manages some relieve for the city and the town can be supplied from the sea. Because of the worse financial situation Spinola is not able to attack Twente and the achterhoek in 1605, meaning it remains Dutch. Stil both sides cannot gain an advantage and like OTL a truce is created, since the Spainsh refuse to make peace.

Differences between OTL and ATL:
Ostend remains Dutch (and protestant)
Various towns in the east remain Dutch
Den Bosch and Venlo are Dutch

When the truce end the Dutch can focus solely on the south, instead of OTL, when the Netherlands had to focus on the east too. This means that the Dutch republic manages to increase their territory and conquers Antwerp and Bruges (and some area around it). France will still be able to conquer Dunkirk and Artois. At the end of the war the southern Netherlands will be smaller, but none of the Walloon areas will be Dutch. There was hardly any support for the Dutch revolt in those areas (and there never realy had been any, except some parts of French Flanders). I also don't think the Dutch are able to conquer all of the Dutch speaking areas, Brussels is simply too far away. So you get a Spanish Netherlands that is smaller and barely has a coastal access (just Nieuwpoort), so making it less interesting for, well anyone besides France and the Netherlands.

Since the Netherlands now controls Ostend, a major Flemish city (and protestant, thus important) and Antwerp (a major port thus important), it probably want to extend its borders in future wars to protect those cities. Because of this, I believe the Dutch Republic will want to get more territory of the Southern Netherlands in future wars, somehow. I could easily see some fortified cities, like Nieuwpoort or Ghent ending up Dutch to protect Ostend and Antwerp from possible French agression.

The Walloon areas, no. They aren't important enough for the Dutch. They are Catholic, speak a different language and are strategivcally less important. I could see a line of barriere cities in Wallonia though. Towns in which the Dutch republic pays for the defenses, although they remain officialy outside of the republic's control.

I know you like the idea of a united Netherlands, including the Walloons (I do too, it would be very interesting in the 17th-18th century), but I simply don't think it can happen. Mind you, this Netherlands, which includes Ostend, Bruges and Antwerp and a relatively large part of the Flemish coast will be a stronger naval power than it was OTL. Antwerp would be a major boon for the Dutch and Ostend is far from worthless. I could see both developing rather well. And a Dutch Antwerp is probably good news for the province of Zeeland too (Ships for Antwerp must go through Zeeland after all). Only Amsterdam is probably worse off (although it will still be incredibly wealthy, like OTL).

Other interesting ideas will be Dutch internal politics, which will probably differ a lot from OTL. I am uncertain if you are interested in my speculation though, if you don't know anything about internal Dutch politics from the 17th century.
 

JJohnson

Banned
Would you have a map of what you see as a possible Netherlands in your scenario?

As for the eventual version of the Netherlands, outside the Dutch revolt, do you see a point later when the Netherlands could claim the south? Perhaps after the Napoleonic Wars?
 
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Would you have a map of what you see as a possible Netherlands in your scenario?
I am a terrible map maker, but this is roughly my idea.

As for the eventual version of the Netherlands, outside the Dutch revolt, do you see a point later when the Netherlands could claim the south? Perhaps after the Napoleonic Wars?

Could they? Yes, just like OTL. Since larger partsof the south has been Dutch for longer, they probably would be more succesful in keeping it (especialy considering that a change towards catholicism is likely to happen).
Mind you, I believe that Napoleon would certainly be butterflied away with a 16th century POD. Still I could see the Dutch gaining it somehow. They don't want France to have it, unless the Franco-Dutch relationship is radicaly different (certainly possible in my opinion, but it is not shared among this board). Without the coastline the Southern Netherlands 9especialy the western part) is less atractive to Spain, Austria or whoever ends up with it. So that leaves either the Netherlands or independence for it. I could easily see the Dutch trying to get it somehow, especialy in the age of nationalism.

Nederlanden_1596-1598.PNG
 
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