I have seen claims that Austria was up to 50% Protestant at one point. Now consider this PoD...

When the Reformation began, the Pope was Leo X. He was by all accounts devout and chaste, but also a "Good Time Charlie" who spent vast sums of Church money on luxurious living and artistic patronage. He pushed the sale of indulgences to raise money for these activities, particularly the completion of St. Peter's Cathedral. He died in 1521, aged only 46, of a sudden attack of pneumonia. There seems no particular reason that he could not have lived another 20 years; his predecessor, Julius II, died at 70, and his successor Adrian VI died at 64.

Adrian VI was Pope for less than two years; Clement VII then served until 1534. (Leo and Clement were both Medici scions, BTW.) Adrian and Clement didn't challenge the Protestants; Clement's successor Paul III launched the Counter-Reformation. But they did end Leo's high-spending ways and made the Papacy less blatantly offensive to reform-minded Germans.

So... WI Leo had lived substantially longer? Would the continuation of his practices aggravate Germans enough to lose the whole country to the Reformation?

Let's go further, and add the PoD of "No Habsburg inheritance", i.e. the Habsburgs don't inherit the Kingdom of Spain (and Spanish dominions in Italy). They remain a purely German house, and thus subject to being carried along with the Protestant tide. Some other Habsburg prince, "Maximilian" or "Louis", is Emperor, and decides that the Papacy are nothing but a lot of thieving Dagos; he embraces Lutheranism.

Can he do that and remain Emperor? Easily, IMO. If all Germany breaks with Rome, his breaking with Rome will be applauded. His authority will not be challenged. The question of the succession will come up - and probably be resolved by declaring the title hereditary. If the Habsburgs have not only their traditional "realm" in the southeast, but also the Burgundian lands in the northwest (which they acquired before the Spanish connection), the Habsburg Emperor is by far the greatest prince in Germany, and as defender of the Protestant faith against the Papists, generally popular. The princes of the Empire will be annoyed, but not so much as to rebel openly.

Over time, this could lead to consolidation of Germany in the 1600s or 1700s.
 
What's the "nearest Catholic Archduke?" IF the Habsburgs go you have left... Bavaria. Hrm. Not exactly inspiring.

I think you need a prince who is more pro-reform than Charles V, who even in OTL speculated, during a fight with the Pope, that "perhaps Martin Luther could become a man of worth." The "Protestant" church would likely claim to be a reformed, universal church, perhaps like Anglicianism on steroids.

The question involved the Emperor converting, not the entire dynasty. As history shows, very rarely would a full dynasty convert.
 
So after doing a bit more reading, I've stumbled upon the notion that the Electors at 1518's election were wary of offering the throne to either the King of Spain Charles V or the King of France Francis I as they were both seen as principally foreign to the Empire. A potential compromise that is suspected to have occured was the election of the Prince-Elector of Saxony, Frederick III, but that Frederick refused the offer. More interestingly, although Frederick was a Catholic his whole life he was a strong defender of Luther. Both Luther and Frederick lived in Wittenberg, and it was Frederick who assured Luther's safe passage to Worms and gave him political sanctuary afterward the Diet.

This scenario then requires two changes to the timeline. First, Frederick does not refuse the Imperial throne if/when offered it and secondly, Frederick goes further than just politically supporting Luther and actually converts to Lutheranism.
 
Just out of interest,does the HRe get any taxes or troops from the HRE states at this point in time or is he supposed to defend HRE states with only the resources of his personal demesne?
 
Just out of interest,does the HRe get any taxes or troops from the HRE states at this point in time or is he supposed to defend HRE states with only the resources of his personal demesne?

Depends on the situation. The Emperor can be at war while the empire is at peace. If the threat is the Turks than typically the Estates unite behind the Emperor and send money and troops. If it's against fellow Christians then the decision passes to the Imperial Diet. I think in the 16th century the diet typically supported the Emperor and declared war if telnet enemy was outside, like France or Poland. If the enemy is another imperial state, then the Empire would usually remain neutral.
 
Depends on the situation. The Emperor can be at war while the empire is at peace. If the threat is the Turks than typically the Estates unite behind the Emperor and send money and troops. If it's against fellow Christians then the decision passes to the Imperial Diet. I think in the 16th century the diet typically supported the Emperor and declared war if telnet enemy was outside, like France or Poland. If the enemy is another imperial state, then the Empire would usually remain neutral.
In that case,is it likely that Saxony would get shafted by most of the member states if it's ruler got elected but the Habsburgs react violently?
 
In that case,is it likely that Saxony would get shafted by most of the member states if it's ruler got elected but the Habsburgs react violently?

Possibly. There hadn't been a disputed election sense 1400/1410 so it's hard to predict. If the Diet is neutral then Saxony is screwed; if the Diet rallies to the Emperor then it's harder to predict and turns into a full civil war. The Habsburgs would be able to call on more resources but the Germans would have more troops on hand. Hard to guess whp would win. Probably France.
 
Possibly. There hadn't been a disputed election sense 1400/1410 so it's hard to predict. If the Diet is neutral then Saxony is screwed; if the Diet rallies to the Emperor then it's harder to predict and turns into a full civil war. The Habsburgs would be able to call on more resources but the Germans would have more troops on hand. Hard to guess whp would win. Probably France.
No wonder why people seem reluctant to contest the election against the Habsburgs...
 
No wonder why people seem reluctant to contest the election against the Habsburgs...

Indeed. There was a very small window for blocking the Habsburg dominance of the throne and that was the 1440 election. By the next one in 1486 the Habsburgs controlled the rich Burgundian Netherlands, which meant they could outspend any of the other Princes, making it very difficult to mount a successful campaign against them. And by 1519 there was no realistic chance to block the Habsburgs. The Imperial crown lacked any independent resources, making the Prince with the largest territories the obvious choice to take the throne. The Wettin lands had been divided back in 1485, meaning the Saxon Electorate was weaker than ever. Not a good choice vs the Habsburgs, who ruled Austria, the Netherlands, Southern Italy and Spain.
 
Indeed. There was a very small window for blocking the Habsburg dominance of the throne and that was the 1440 election. By the next one in 1486 the Habsburgs controlled the rich Burgundian Netherlands, which meant they could outspend any of the other Princes, making it very difficult to mount a successful campaign against them. And by 1519 there was no realistic chance to block the Habsburgs. The Imperial crown lacked any independent resources, making the Prince with the largest territories the obvious choice to take the throne. The Wettin lands had been divided back in 1485, meaning the Saxon Electorate was weaker than ever. Not a good choice vs the Habsburgs, who ruled Austria, the Netherlands, Southern Italy and Spain.
Although, with the Italian Wars, the Austrians and Spanish might be a bit preoccupied with their squabbles with France over Italy, and if they (the electors) want an Emperor who won't meddle much in their affairs, a small but powerful enough Saxony might be up for the task. And I can only imagine that the moment the Habsburgs dare go after Saxony is also the moment Francis I returns to Italy.
 
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