WI: The Early Death of Theodoric the Great and the Destruction of the Ostrogoths

Philip

Donor
In 478, Emperor Zeno attempted to orchestrate a battle between the two factions of Ostrogoths. He promised to provide the support of the Imperial army to Theodoric the Amal (soon to be the Great) against Theodoric Strabo.
He failed, and the rift within the Ostrogoths was temporarily healed.

What if Zeno had succeeded? Suppose the two Theodorics did not see their common interest lay in unity. The Gothic armies are devistated after fighting each other, and the Imperial army mops up the remnants.

What happens next?

There is now a power vacuum in Moesia and Pannonia. Who fills it? The Gepids perhaps? Do the Slavs come further west sooner?

What happens in Italy? Without the Ostrogoths, what does Zeno do about Odoacer?
 
I don't think Zeno intentions was to wipe out the Ostrogoths, but rather to curb the threat they presented to the Empire. By provoking a civil war and picking a winner Zeno puts himself in a position to leverage control over the winner.

I can't see Zeno wanting another barbarian tribe to come into Pannonia, Theodoric was as close to a trained barbarian as Zeno was going to get, seeing as how he grew up in Constantinople. Theodoric would probably serve as an ally of the Byzantines, defending the Pannonian frontier against other tribes.

With regards to Odacer- maybe Theodoric still invades but with direct Imperial assistance (ie troops, funding)- making Theodoric the ruler of an actual client-kingdom over which the Byzantines exercise some control?
 
I've a lot of doubts on the likelihood that Theodoric the Great accepts a life as a client king of the ERE

He was willing to kow-tow to Constantinople during his reign, officially acting as the Emperor's viceroy and allowing Roman citizens in Italy to live under their own laws (thus creating a two-tier system separating the Germanic tribesman and Roman citizenry). Theodoric as a client-king of Italy would probably still be bound to the Emperor as foederati, which in this context might actually mean something, meaning that the Goths may be called on to fight with the Roman army in other conflicts.

The interesting thing is what this would mean when the Visigothic throne is vacated and Theodoric becomes the Regent for his grandson, the child-king of the Visigoths. The Visigoths did not recognize Roman authority, and Theodoric would suddenly have a larger base to work from.

Looking at this now, I don't know if Zeno would get involved in an Italian project with Theodoric. It made sense in OTL because Theodoric was strong enough to pose a threat to Constantinople. IATL Theodoric won't be strong enough to threaten Constantinople, and so wouldn't be a priority to get out of the Balkans. If Odacer is raising the level of nuisance, Theodoric might be involved in an Italian project, but it could be a Constantinople project, Justinian's war a generation early, with Gothic troops as a part of the Roman expedition to reconquer Italy. Maybe the Goths get land out of the deal, getting Verona and some Po bottomlands, while Constantinople rules the rest of the penisula.
 
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