WI: The Dutch and/or Brabant Revolution Succeed?

Im
Not sure the brits might get nervous due to trade concerns. The French will also be concerned depending on what happens. But not sure we’d see a coalition lole
Otl
 

HJ Tulp

Donor
Im
Not sure the brits might get nervous due to trade concerns. The French will also be concerned depending on what happens. But not sure we’d see a coalition lole
Otl
Actually France was supporting the Patriottic Revolution in the Netherlands. Its failure to intervene when the Prussians came marching west was a clear sign that the Ancien Regime was breaking apart.

Frederick the Great was pretty much against intervening so if he lives the patriots mightbhaveba chance to get their house in order.
 
The Brabant revolt was a reaction against reforms and modernisation initiated by the Austrian Emperor. In fact it was a reaction more or less the same as the "dutch"revolt more than 200 years ago. The brabant revolt was a conservativevrevolt in order to keep the status quo
 
My first impression would be that The Dutch Republic would be better off than OTL. Many of the Dutch patriots active in the revolts fled to France after the Prussian invasion and returned later with the victorious French troops. But this liberation came with a heavy price tag. And the Republic was further drawn in the struggle against Great Britain. That was not really in the Interest of the Dutch, because colonial defenses proved to be largely inadequate. It showed how overextended the Dutch colonial empire was at that point in time.
I can see the victorious patriots of the ATL trying to implement the same necessary political reforms: That means centralisation of government, an increase of the political influence of groups that were excluded in the period before the 1780's and as a consequence the legal equality of the different religions, the removal of the last economical remnants of feudalism. Also a further liberalization of the written word.
If the New 'trully Liberated and United Dutch Republic' can somehow defend itself against the initially hostile Prussians* (And to be honest, those early Dutch militia didn't have a change against the professionals of the Prussian Army) it's foreign policy will turn more and more towards France, with or without French revolution. The patriots overestimated the militairy strenght of the republic. The dissastrous defeats of the fleet in the war of 1780-1784 were explained by the incompetence and corruption of the stadtholder and the ruling elites, but at the same time it had been the patriots who initially were hawkish and drove the Republic to war with England. Willem V never wanted war. So i think a succesfull Dutch revolt wil have a hostile policy towards Great Britain, and may be easy drawn into a new war, that may again end badly for the Dutch.
A question is if like the French Revolution, the Dutch revolt will radicalize. I don't have the definite answer there, but i believe some crucial elements are missing in the Dutch Republic . In OTL the Batavian Republic never really radicalized, but it must be said that as it was founded at the end of the Terror of the French Revolution, the experience of the patriot refugees in France may have been a lesson for them, which way not to go. The main political issue in the batavian republic was the practical issue of centralisation, not so much ideological issues. That issue of centralisation was responsible for a couple of coups in the batavian republic, but several of them were initiated by the French 'overlords' to get better control. In the ATL there will probably no French occupation, i'm not sure if this makes the Liberated and United Republic more stable or the reverse.

*As stadtholder Willem V was maried to Wilhelmina of Prussia, this is hard to avoid.
 
The Brabant revolt was a reaction against reforms and modernisation initiated by the Austrian Emperor. In fact it was a reaction more or less the same as the "dutch"revolt more than 200 years ago. The brabant revolt was a conservativevrevolt in order to keep the status quo
So essentially you have two revolts - essentially happening next door to one another - where one is fighting to modernize and the other one is fighting not to modernize?
 
I wouldn;t say either revolt was similar to the French revolution. The French revolution was basicly the (rich-upperclass) non-nobility rising up to the nobility. The Dutch Republic on the other hand was no longer ruled by nobility (with the exception of the stadholder, but his position was rather complex). The patriotrevolt was kind of like a middle class revolution agaainst the rich upperclass. And as I understand it the Brabant revolt was basicly an anti-Austrian revolt from people who wanted to keep their autonomy. I don't think either could be as succesful as the French revolution or spread throughout Europe. The social system of the Dutch Republic was unique and so were its internal social problems. Also its influence (and militairy prowess) in the late 18th century was somewhat limited.

What I think would happen if the Dutch Patriots were succesful is simply that when everything calms down in the Netherlands and the stadholder is dealt with (somehow) the rest of Europe will probably accept the simple rule shift away from the stadholder and simply see it as a third stadholderless period. That said, they have to choose their allies a little more carefully than OTL and don't antagonise the British who can simply take over all of the Dutch colonial empire.
 
So essentially you have two revolts - essentially happening next door to one another - where one is fighting to modernize and the other one is fighting not to modernize?
Yes, how ever during the Brabant revolt there where more or less two major factions, the conservatives and the progressives, to use modern terminlogy. The conservatives stived to keep the status quo the progressives strive to a form of state reform and in the end self rule, that is no foreign monarch ruling the Southern Netherlands. This is simplyfied the Brabant revolt, who also occured in al states of the Austrian Netherlnads with exeption of Luxembourgh and there was revolution in the Prince Bishop of Liege.
For the Dutch Republic the revolt was a revolt of the middel class agains the opposing Oliarch families which were State ( Republican) or Orangist ( Royalist) as explained by Pompeus:
I wouldn;t say either revolt was similar to the French revolution. The French revolution was basicly the (rich-upperclass) non-nobility rising up to the nobility. The Dutch Republic on the other hand was no longer ruled by nobility (with the exception of the stadholder, but his position was rather complex). The patriotrevolt was kind of like a middle class revolution agaainst the rich upperclass.
 
What I think would happen if the Dutch Patriots were succesful is simply that when everything calms down in the Netherlands and the stadholder is dealt with (somehow) the rest of Europe will probably accept the simple rule shift away from the stadholder and simply see it as a third stadholderless period. That said, they have to choose their allies a little more carefully than OTL and don't antagonise the British who can simply take over all of the Dutch colonial empire.
Agree with the above. If the Prussians did not intevene the siuation would calm down relative fast.
Things will be more interesting if the Prussian army from Cleve would have to retreat the battle field. Whihc mean a militairy victory for the Patriot movement, giving them more "power" domesticly and international. A military victory is not complete unlikely since an Austrian army was defeated during the Brabant revolt and the revolutionairs of Liege were initially as well succesful.

It will also be intersting how a Patriot Dutch Republic will react to theUnited States of the Netherlands after the initial succes of the Brabant Revolt. In OTL the Dutch Rebublic did not act since it was ruled by Stadholder William V, at that time nothing more than a puppet of Prusia and Austria.
Big chance that Patriot Dutch Republic will jion the confederation with the United Stats of the Nehterlands. That is not interfering with the internal troubles of the Southern Netherlands but close diplomatic and economic cooperation.

In OTL the Batavian Republic was an ally of revolutionair France, mostly beacuase the rulers of the Batavian republic fled to France after the defeat of the Patriot movement.
In a constelation were the Patriot won it is uncertain if the Patriot Republic will side with Republicain France. As Pompeus mentioned the Patriot revolt was very different than the French revolution. The latter turned very grimm, bloody and extremist within a few years.
Due to the nature of the French revolution the Patriot Republic and the United States of the Netherlands will probably not side with Republican France.

A Patriot Republic will certainly try to organise the overseas possessions of the VOC and the WIC and her subsidaries, as the Batavian Republic did. The Patriot Republic will have a few years more to reorganise and bring order than the Batavian Republic and if the Patriot keep a sensible foreign policy and not side with France or atagonise Great Britain in an other way the latter will not drive in the wheels of this colonial reforms.
The defacto bankrupted VOC and WIC will most likely be terminated and their trade networks and markets will be taken over by other smaller trade companies.
 
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I wouldn;t say either revolt was similar to the French revolution. The French revolution was basicly the (rich-upperclass) non-nobility rising up to the nobility. The Dutch Republic on the other hand was no longer ruled by nobility (with the exception of the stadholder, but his position was rather complex). The patriotrevolt was kind of like a middle class revolution agaainst the rich upperclass.
That's not so much different as you say here. There was a phase in the French revolution, where the middle class was the drive. Danton and Robbespiere and many other Montagnards and Girondins were of the middle class.
Besides that it can also be said that the Regents were acting more and more as a new kind of nobility during the 18th century. They were closing their ranks, not really accepting new blood and jobs were seen as privileges of the family. Nepotism was on the rise.
What I think would happen if the Dutch Patriots were succesful is simply that when everything calms down in the Netherlands and the stadholder is dealt with (somehow) the rest of Europe will probably accept the simple rule shift away from the stadholder and simply see it as a third stadholderless period. That said, they have to choose their allies a little more carefully than OTL and don't antagonise the British who can simply take over all of the Dutch colonial empire.
Like i said before, this might be tricky. The patriots were from the begining leaning towards France combined with a heavy sympathy for the American rebels. I don't see a reason why they wouldn't, if their revolt succeeds. They were really overestimating Dutch strength and thought other leadership in the navy would be enough at first. Even in the Batavian republic structural reforms were limited. The only new militairy naval structure built in this period are the Jan Blankens docks in Hellevoetsluis. Further works by him in Den Helder were only finished in 1822.
In a constelation were the Patriot won it is uncertain if the Patriot Republic will side with Republicain France. As Pompeus mentioned the Patriot revolt was very different than the French revolution. The latter turned very grimm, bloody and extremist within a few years.
Due to the nature of the French revolution the Patriot Republic and the United States of the Netherlands will probably not side with Republican France.
The fled Dutch patriots were in the heart of the terror and still sided with France, when returned to Holland, and the new Batavian constitution was heavily influenced by the French one. It might have tempered the revolutionary fervor, but it was certainly not enough to turn them away from the ideals, that were an issue in the Netherlands too, like the equalisation of religions.
It also can't be said so easy the Dutch revolt will not turn more extreme. The first coup in 1798 was by radical elements. Someone like Schimmelpeninck resigned from the Amsterdam city council some months before that, because he felt like the radical elements were taking over. Like i said before, it was the question what the French allowed to happen. The French supported the countercoup a few months later, and that was the end of the radical period.
A Patriot Republic will certainly try to organise the overseas possessions of the VOC and the WIC and her subsidaries, as the Batavian Republic did. The Patriot Republic will have a few years more to reorganise and bring order than the Batavian Republic and if the Patriot keep a sensible foreign policy and not side with France or atagonise Great Britain in an other way the latter will not drive in the wheels of this colonial reforms.
The defacto bankrupted VOC and WIC will most likely be terminated and their trade networks and markets will be taken over by other smaller trade companies.
This i can agree with. If given time colonial government will be strenghtened by reform.
 
OTL the revolts were crushed by the Prussians and/or Austrians, but many of their ideals were the same that the French would carry to conclusion in 1789.

What would've happened if the "Age of Revolutions" had started in the Low Countries instead of Paris*.

*It did, but this is often overlooked because the revolts were ultimately squashed.

@pompejus @Janprimus @HJ Tulp @Osman Aga @VVD0D95 @alexmilman @Jürgen @PBErik

Considering how everyone tried to gang up on France in the early stage, it won't be much more different with the Dutch even without the regicide. Austria still claims the South.
 
Considering how everyone tried to gang up on France in the early stage, it won't be much more different with the Dutch even without the regicide. Austria still claims the South.
I don't know. The big difference is that the Dutch Republic already was a republic. It would just change the people in control. Even if they got rid of the stadholder, they would have had 2 seperate stadholderless periods in the past. This would just be the third one. I think they would only gang up on the Netherlands if they decided to export the revolution (which I doubt they would, at least actively) or if they decide to conquer other parts of Europe (like for example try to annex the Southern Netherlands because of their revolution), in which only Austria and its allies would get involved. That said, That might be enough to crush the entire thing. Prussia alone was enough to crush the patriot OTL and I believe that Prussia was weaker than Austria in the 18th century.
 
they would only gang up on the Netherlands if they decided to export the revolution (which I doubt they would, at least actively) or if they decide to conquer other parts of Europe (like for example try to annex the Southern Netherlands because of their revolution), i

So a Dutch "revolution" would, theoretically, go over "better" than the OTL French one? Since were there any urges to expand their territory at this point? I was always under the impression they [the government] didn't want the Southern Netherlands because it was full of Catholics. It was the Oranges who wanted to "expand", as I understood it.
 
So a Dutch "revolution" would, theoretically, go over "better" than the OTL French one? Since were there any urges to expand their territory at this point? I was always under the impression they [the government] didn't want the Southern Netherlands because it was full of Catholics. It was the Oranges who wanted to "expand", as I understood it.
I agree with @pompejus that a Dutch Revolt will not have the drive to export the revolution like the French. This is a cultural thing. France before the Revolution saw itself already as an example to be copied by others and they were already quite succesfull in this. Nor have the Dutch desires to expand in the obvious direction, South. Not so much for what you say, but because in their minds a takeover of Antwerp, would mean they can't prevent that city of becoming a competitor again. In OTL in 1785 they even paid some million of guilders to Austria to retain the right to blockade Antwerp, even though Antwerp was at that time a mere shadow of it's former glory.

ADDITION: The main task of the Oranges in the early years of the Republic was leading the Army. So it was crucial in those days for their relevance that the country was involved in a landwar. However, the stadtholdership was expanded beyond that role and since around 1750 heritable. That meant that they weren't so depending on the army leadership anymore.
 
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A Patriot Republic might side or supprt the Brabant revolt. It is the end of the 18th century. Religion is not an isue as it was a century ago. Catholic state Brabant woulb be elevated to a province with representation in the state general. An open Antwerp will be not an issue either, since the elite of Amsterdam made her fortune with banking. The Patriots are " enlighted" even the conservatives. The two factions of a Patriot Republic will found them self at ease with the two factions of the United States of the Netherlands, the progressive Vonckist and the conservative Statist, A confederation between the Patriot Republic and the United States of the Netherlands is possible.
The two factions in both Republics will balnca the countries to prefent too radical steps or to 'export' their revolt. Even initially both Republics will find resistance by the Great Powers this will quickly diminish when the revolution in France will occure and derail in its course, and the two Northern neighbors of France will distance them of the increasing extremism in France.
 
A Patriot Republic might side or supprt the Brabant revolt. It is the end of the 18th century. Religion is not an isue as it was a century ago. Catholic state Brabant woulb be elevated to a province with representation in the state general. An open Antwerp will be not an issue either, since the elite of Amsterdam made her fortune with banking. The Patriots are " enlighted" even the conservatives. The two factions of a Patriot Republic will found them self at ease with the two factions of the United States of the Netherlands, the progressive Vonckist and the conservative Statist, A confederation between the Patriot Republic and the United States of the Netherlands is possible.
The two factions in both Republics will balnca the countries to prefent too radical steps or to 'export' their revolt. Even initially both Republics will find resistance by the Great Powers this will quickly diminish when the revolution in France will occure and derail in its course, and the two Northern neighbors of France will distance them of the increasing extremism in France.
That could make for intriguing developments
 
That could make for intriguing developments
No doubt this confedaration will be pushed away by the revolution armies of France. Possible via a more extreme Liege. But both nations will be at the end on the winning side, which might have different results in a post Napoleon eara
 
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