WI the Dogger Bank incident resulted in the British Empire entering the Russo-Japanese war?

ahmedali

Banned
Catsmate said:
If Poland is independent, as fairly massive historical deviation, it's not tonight join a Franco-Russian Entente unless it is a Russian vassal.

If Russia suffers a larger and more humiliating defeat to the Angle-Japanese forces the shift in Russian politics will be greater than historical. A new Tsar and a functional Duma at the very least.
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Poland will probably join the Russian-French alliance

(Germany and Austria have lands to the Poles, which are their legal lands like Bozen, Galicia and Danzing, so regardless of Russia's hatred, Germany and Austria have Polish lands, so they will ally with the Russians and the French)

But the important question is who will be the king of independent Poland
 

Lalli

ahmedali said:
The regent will be Grand Duke Michael, brother of Nicholas, or Grand Duke Nicholas Nikolaevich (because Michael will not want to rule)

Since the Regency does not have a good history in Russia (Ivan the Terrible, Ivan VI, especially Ivan VI)

The regent will decide to depose Alexei and take the throne himself for stability

(So we may see Nicholas III or Michael II)
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True that regency in Russia has not historically worked very well, but even in Russia times in 1905 is different than in 1741. Succession is more stable and there is clear rules on the issue. Like you said, Michael didn't want to be tsar so he wouldn't even try that. And I doubt that Nichlas Nicholayevich too would want shake a boat.

Of course things are still intresting since Alexei has not great health and he will not live old. Probably only just to early 1920's. So Michael would still become tsar.

And in other hand since tsar is only British style ceremonial head of state, there is quiet few of point oust tsar anyway.

ahmedali said:
But the important question is who will be the king of independent Poland
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Could someone French nobility or even member of Bourbon or Órleans be suitable. Or then someone Polish nobility. One option would be descendant of last king of independent Poland-Lithuania.
 

ahmedali

Banned
Lalli said:
True that regency in Russia has not historically worked very well, but even in Russia times in 1905 is different than in 1741. Succession is more stable and there is clear rules on the issue. Like you said, Michael didn't want to be tsar so he wouldn't even try that. And I doubt that Nichlas Nicholayevich too would want shake a boat.

Of course things are still intresting since Alexei has not great health and he will not live old. Probably only just to early 1920's. So Michael would still become tsar.

And in other hand since tsar is only British style ceremonial head of state, there is quiet few of point oust tsar anyway.



Could someone French nobility or even member of Bourbon or Órleans be suitable. Or then someone Polish nobility. One option would be descendant of last king of independent Poland-Lithuania.
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Nicholas Nikolayevich, unlike Mikhail, may take one for the team and take the throne

Or consider the option of Maria Vladimirovna imitating Catherine II

Alexei can live a long life (his cousin, Prince Waldemar of Prussia, nephew of Wilhelm II, lived until the age of 56 with hemophilia)

Bourbon Orleans is a good option but France will have to let them enter the country

A Polish noble whose family will be Radziwiłł or Czartoryski

The descendant of the last kings of Poland and Lithuania will simply be the king of Saxony
 

Lalli

ahmedali said:
Its lineage is extinct

The Witten family is the closest surviving family to rule the Commonwealth

The simple problem is that they are German
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Would then someone member of Italian royal family fine be fine? Yes, italy was allied with Germany but there is quiet few of good options outside of Germany and Austria-Hungary.
 
Catsmate

Catsmate

ahmedali said:
Poland will probably join the Russian-French alliance

(Germany and Austria have lands to the Poles, which are their legal lands like Bozen, Galicia and Danzing, so regardless of Russia's hatred, Germany and Austria have Polish lands, so they will ally with the Russians and the French)

But the important question is who will be the king of independent Poland
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Why? Assuming they've gained independence from the power that has occupied and oppressed them for many years why would they ally with their former oppressor against countries that they have relatively minor grievances against.
 

ahmedali

Banned
Catsmate said:
Why? Assuming they've gained independence from the power that has occupied and oppressed them for many years why would they ally with their former oppressor against countries that they have relatively minor grievances against.
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There is such a thing as political realism

Britain allied itself with its archenemy, France, against Germany

Austria allied itself with Germany, destroying its hegemony in Germany

It is not impossible to ally with Russia and France
 

ahmedali

Banned
Lalli said:
Would then someone member of Italian royal family fine be fine? Yes, italy was allied with Germany but there is quiet few of good options outside of Germany and Austria-Hungary.
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Savoy is a good choice

But the Poles will want someone who is notable and has ties to Europe


Bourbon, Habsburg, Saxe-Coburg-Gotha (Bulgarian, Belgian and Portuguese branch), Wu Witten-Wittlsbach and Hohenzollern-Sigmargen doing the job
 

Lalli

ahmedali said:
There is such a thing as political realism

Britain allied itself with its archenemy, France, against Germany

Austria allied itself with Germany, destroying its hegemony in Germany

It is not impossible to ally with Russia and France
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I just can't see Poland being willingful to ally with Russia since it has treated Poles pretty badly quiet long time. At least Poland wouldn't trust to Russia.
 

ahmedali

Banned
Lalli said:
I just can't see Poland being willingful to ally with Russia since it has treated Poles pretty badly quiet long time. At least Poland wouldn't trust to Russia.
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The Germans treated the Poles as harshly as the Russians and the Austrians were the least harsh

Posen and Danzing and their ethnic lands and Galicia would be much more important than Vilnius or any bitterness towards the Russians.

So I see the Poles making a deal with the devil (the Russians) against the other devil (the Germans).

Neutrality is not an option (the Poles would very much like to join the Entente and a potential Polish king I doubt would try to imitate Constantine I)
 
Catsmate

Catsmate

ahmedali said:
There is such a thing as political realism

Britain allied itself with its archenemy, France, against Germany

Austria allied itself with Germany, destroying its hegemony in Germany

It is not impossible to ally with Russia and France
Click to expand...
It is, however, unlikely in the extreme in the Real World.
A Poland that has obtained independence after a massive political change in Tsarist Russian is vastly more likely to see Germany as a possible ally.
 
Catsmate

Catsmate

ahmedali said:
The Germans treated the Poles as harshly as the Russians and the Austrians were the least harsh

Posen and Danzing and their ethnic lands and Galicia would be much more important than Vilnius or any bitterness towards the Russians.

So I see the Poles making a deal with the devil (the Russians) against the other devil (the Germans).

Neutrality is not an option (the Poles would very much like to join the Entente and a potential Polish king I doubt would try to imitate Constantine I)
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This is quite simply untrue.
 

ahmedali

Banned
Catsmate said:
This is quite simply untrue.
Click to expand...

Attempts to displace and assimilate the Poles during the Bismarck era and transfer them to the Rhineland

Plans for the Polish border strip in ww1 that intended to commit ethnic cleansing against the Poles and settling the Germans there

Do Germans seem "nice" to Poles?

Only the Austrians are noticeably less ruthless
 

ahmedali

Banned
Catsmate said:
It is, however, unlikely in the extreme in the Real World.

A Poland that has obtained independence after a massive political change in Tsarist Russian is vastly more likely to see Germany as a possible ally.
Click to expand...

The prospects of a Polish-German alliance would not be much greater than a Roman-Austrian alliance

(Bozen and Danzing and Galicia for the Poles is Transylvania for the Romanians, especially Bozen and Galicia is a majority Polish and Taoi Krakow is owned by Austria and is an important place for the possible Polish monarchy as a historical place of coronation and burial)

Unless you make German victories in 1914 against France more, I can't see the Poles joining the Central Powers.
 
Catsmate

Catsmate

ahmedali said:
The prospects of a Polish-German alliance would not be much greater than a Roman-Austrian alliance

(Bozen and Danzing and Galicia for the Poles is Transylvania for the Romanians, especially Bozen and Galicia is a majority Polish and Taoi Krakow is owned by Austria and is an important place for the possible Polish monarchy as a historical place of coronation and burial)

Unless you make German victories in 1914 against France more, I can't see the Poles joining the Central Powers.
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???
Most likely Poland would remain independent but aligned towards Germany out of the entirety logical concern of Russian revanchism.
 
Catsmate

Catsmate

ahmedali said:
Attempts to displace and assimilate the Poles during the Bismarck era and transfer them to the Rhineland

Plans for the Polish border strip in ww1 that intended to commit ethnic cleansing against the Poles and settling the Germans there

Do Germans seem "nice" to Poles?

Only the Austrians are noticeably less ruthless
Click to expand...
:rolleyes:
You claimed "The Germans treated the Poles as harshly as the Russians". I assume you will be supporting this with actual facts and evidence? You could start by covering forceful Russification, suppression of the Polish language (and it's proscription the forced used of the Cyrillic alphabet), culture, the arts, the status of the Russian Orthodox religion, and other Russian practices, governance and the Council of State,
 

ahmedali

Banned
Catsmate said:
:rolleyes:
You claimed "The Germans treated the Poles as harshly as the Russians". I assume you will be supporting this with actual facts and evidence? You could start by covering forceful Russification, suppression of the Polish language (and it's proscription the forced used of the Cyrillic alphabet), culture, the arts, the status of the Russian Orthodox religion, and other Russian practices, governance and the Council of State,
Click to expand...

Germanisation of Poles during the Partitions - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org en.m.wikipedia.org
 
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