WI the Dogger Bank incident resulted in the British Empire entering the Russo-Japanese war?

[Admiral Jellicoe]

The Channel Fleet had 8 battleships and an attendant cruiser squadron. All battleships were Majestic class. Further battleships would have been available in home waters as well as cruisers. The Mediterranean Fleet was even bigger than the Channel Fleet. It is reasonable to suggest that as fully commissioned ships the crews were of good quality and the gunnery better than that of the Russians - albeit still at the beginning of the Scott/Fisher gunnery revolution.

The Japanese had only four battleships at Tsushima backed up by a squadron of armoured cruisers and further squadron of older cruisers/cost defence ships. The Russians at Tsushima had three squadrons, the third squadron under Nebogatov (one ancient battleship and three coast defence ships) sailed later and would not have been present at Dogger bank. Yet the Japanese still overwhelmed the Russians in spite of the fact that the Russians had three more battleships

Russian ships will not be as badly overloaded with coal at Dogger bank but they will have had considerably less sea experience too. It is difficult to see even a basically handled Channel Fleet doing anything but handing Rozhestvensky his backside.

I would suggest that a victory will mean

Russia pays reparations to UK and may agree to some buffer zone in terms of troop deployments in central asia
Revolution may still occur as per OTL
Early peace with Japan and loss of all Sakhalin plus Korea etc
Japan builds dreadnoughts earlier and more quickly as its not saddled with trying to refit and recommission as many Russian wrecks at great expense.
Entente delayed due to French coolness towards UK and obvious Russian negative sentiments
German naval plans continue as already built into law and the fate of the 2nd Pacific squadron gets used as a further reason why a strong fleet is necessary to stand up to Albion
Germany forces some colonial concessions from a weakened France over Morocco
Turkey still faces a much stronger Black Sea Fleet and given an earlier conclusion to the Far Eastern war still plenty of Russian forces as well as a simmering balkans - adventurism on her part may simply kick off the 1st Balkan war a bit earlier. This is likely to go as well as in OTL
Beresford becomes a national hero - Fisher unable to bar him from the 1st Sea Lord role. Beresford/Fisher feud is therefore much worse. Fisher likely to come off worse this time as he will not have commanded a successful fleet action and Beresford has, coupled with Beresford's connections and widespread allies
Larger early dreadnought programme especially the 08/09 year. Possibly an additional 2-3 ships as lessons from Dogger bank and lack of any entente drive forward need for supremacy coupled with high levels of press fervour

 

[ahmedali]

Russification barely affected Poles in fact. None of my ancestors (all of them lived in Russian Poland) spoken Russian. None.
And in 1914, when Piłsudski wanted to ignite anti-Russian uprising in Kielce he failed, because Poles in Russian Poland, while not loving Russia, found Germany to be worse, true danger to existence of Polish nation, after all Russian Empire has not presecuted simple Polish peasants for being Poles, like Germans did with Drzymała. And when Germans entered Kalisz in 1914, they did this:

Destruction of Kalisz - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Plus they have this in plans:

Polish Border Strip - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

That is what Bismarck said about Poles:

Hit the Poles so hard that they despair of their life; I…

“Hit the Poles so hard that they despair of their life; I have full sympathy with their condition, but if we want to survive, we can only exterminate them; the wolf, too, cannot help having been created by God as he is, but people shoot him for it if they can.” - Otto von Bismarck

quotepark.com

German view of Poland was similar to Israeli view of Palestine and in case of German victory Poles would share fate of 21th century Palestinians.

Exactly, this confirms my point of view

The Russians were incompetent at Russification

While the Germans were frighteningly efficient in making the Poles Germans

That is why the Poles will swallow their hatred of the Russians and ally themselves with them against the Germans

 

[ahmedali]

The Channel Fleet had 8 battleships and an attendant cruiser squadron. All battleships were Majestic class. Further battleships would have been available in home waters as well as cruisers. The Mediterranean Fleet was even bigger than the Channel Fleet. It is reasonable to suggest that as fully commissioned ships the crews were of good quality and the gunnery better than that of the Russians - albeit still at the beginning of the Scott/Fisher gunnery revolution.

The Japanese had only four battleships at Tsushima backed up by a squadron of armoured cruisers and further squadron of older cruisers/cost defence ships. The Russians at Tsushima had three squadrons, the third squadron under Nebogatov (one ancient battleship and three coast defence ships) sailed later and would not have been present at Dogger bank. Yet the Japanese still overwhelmed the Russians in spite of the fact that the Russians had three more battleships

Russian ships will not be as badly overloaded with coal at Dogger bank but they will have had considerably less sea experience too. It is difficult to see even a basically handled Channel Fleet doing anything but handing Rozhestvensky his backside.

I would suggest that a victory will mean

Russia pays reparations to UK and may agree to some buffer zone in terms of troop deployments in central asia
Revolution may still occur as per OTL
Early peace with Japan and loss of all Sakhalin plus Korea etc
Japan builds dreadnoughts earlier and more quickly as its not saddled with trying to refit and recommission as many Russian wrecks at great expense.
Entente delayed due to French coolness towards UK and obvious Russian negative sentiments
German naval plans continue as already built into law and the fate of the 2nd Pacific squadron gets used as a further reason why a strong fleet is necessary to stand up to Albion
Germany forces some colonial concessions from a weakened France over Morocco
Turkey still faces a much stronger Black Sea Fleet and given an earlier conclusion to the Far Eastern war still plenty of Russian forces as well as a simmering balkans - adventurism on her part may simply kick off the 1st Balkan war a bit earlier. This is likely to go as well as in OTL
Beresford becomes a national hero - Fisher unable to bar him from the 1st Sea Lord role. Beresford/Fisher feud is therefore much worse. Fisher likely to come off worse this time as he will not have commanded a successful fleet action and Beresford has, coupled with Beresford's connections and widespread allies
Larger early dreadnought programme especially the 08/09 year. Possibly an additional 2-3 ships as lessons from Dogger bank and lack of any entente drive forward need for supremacy coupled with high levels of press fervour

Regarding the Balkans, I see a quick war in 1905-1906 between the Ottomans and the Balkan countries ending with an Ottoman victory.

Because Russia will be too paralyzed to respond and the Ottomans are still doing well here

And even if we suppose that they will respond to the Duma, he will not submit to the whims of the Tsar

(Because Russia is a real constitutional monarchy here)

Even if the assassination continues as it happened, it is unlikely that Russia will support Serbia because the Duma will not agree

 

[raharris1973]

I think the Ottomans are a genuine wild card here. If Britain enters the war, Abdul Hamid II might see a chance to take revenge against Russia. His people would probably have a better chance of winning this one than in 1877 and nabbing concessions or Caucasian territory might prove stabilizing as well as unifying.

I don't know. I mean it's a revenge opportunity, but Abdul Hamid didn't find the British trustworthy. Also, he could be worried about setting his empire up for revenge at a time of Russia's choosing when the Empire is isolated.

Abdul Hamid II will make a surprise attack on the Balkans to restore it

With the annexation of what was lost in 1877 during the chaos of the Russian revolution with Russia being paralyzed without declaring war

If Abdul Hamid was assassinated in 1905, we will look at a second, early constitutional era

This would be the best scenario for the Ottomans and the Balkans, because without wars between the Balkan countries

Reclaiming the lands of 1877 means war with Bulgaria, Greece, Serbia, Montenegro, and Austria. That's quite an agenda that would have even those with a friendly disposition to the Ottomans going WTF?

For Greece and Serbia its about substantial territories. For Bulgaria it's existential.

 

[ahmedali]

I don't know. I mean it's a revenge opportunity, but Abdul Hamid didn't find the British trustworthy. Also, he could be worried about setting his empire up for revenge at a time of Russia's choosing when the Empire is isolated.




Reclaiming the lands of 1877 means war with Bulgaria, Greece, Serbia, Montenegro, and Austria. That's quite an agenda that would have even those with a friendly disposition to the Ottomans going WTF?

For Greece and Serbia its about substantial territories. For Bulgaria it's existential.

Bulgaria is still legally an Ottoman protectorate

And Ferdinand I has a bad reputation for being an untrustworthy snake so no one will care

Serbia replaced two years ago its pro-Austrian dynasty with an anti-Austrian and Russian ally.

Montenegro will object to Italy, but it is doubtful because Italy does not want to object alone

When half of the princesses of Montenegro are married to the Dukes of Russia and Russia is paralyzed

Greece is militarily weak because the coup of 1909 did not happen yet

So from a scale of one in ten Austria's interest rate will be one because Serbia is hostile

Franz Joseph is hostile to his Bulgarian cousin because he baptized his son Boris in the Orthodox Church instead of the Catholic one.

So, no, they will not care, but they will be happy, because there is no Balkan country that intends to take their lands (especially the Hungarians).

(Bosnia is still legally Ottoman so if Franz Ferdinand arrives early he may return it because he objected to the annexation)

Ardahan and Kars are former Ottoman lands, so they have a real claim to it. As for Azerbaijan, the Sultan may avoid taking it.

So unless they provoke Russia directly, their situation is good

 

[Hugh Third of Five]

BUT, if the RN had a cruiser shadowing the Russian fleet and they spotted it at night and went "AMFG ITS THE JAPANESE!!!" and opened up on her and got lucky before the Cruiser managed to disengage, and either badly shot her up or managed to sink her then the next morning the 2nd Pacific Squadron would find its path blocked by the Channel Fleet with its guns pointed at them.

Would a cruiser disengage in that case rather than return fire?

And the plans of the First World War to perpetrate the ethnic cleansing of about 3 million Poles in the place known as the Polish border strip.

Plus they have this in plans:

I don't think the Polish Border Strip would become an issue in some alternate Russo-Japanese War.