WI the Dogger Bank incident resulted in the British Empire entering the Russo-Japanese war?

The Second Pacific Squadron was an attempt by the Russians to reinforce their struggling Pacific Fleet against the Japanese by bringing part of the Baltic Fleet all the way around the old world to reach the battlefield and help their comrades. It was an absolute farce from start (where they failed to safely leave port) to finish (where they bungled their first attempt to surrender by using unclear signals) where almost everything that could have gone wrong did; I strongly recommend looking up their antics if you want some dark humour.

Their most serious incident was the Dogger Bank incident. While they were out on the North Sea, one of their ships claimed it had spotted a fleet of Japanese torpedo boats. Even though the Japanese Navy was physically incapable of reaching the North Sea, let alone in time to intercept the Second Pacific Squadron, AND the Japanese didn't even have enough torpedo boats to make a "fleet". This was not the first time they had an obviously false torpedo boat alarm, and it wouldn't be the last. The "Japanese torpedo boats" were actually a British fishing fleet. The Russians opened fire and, thanks to some atrocious gunnery and friendly fire, were fought to a draw by the slow, unarmed fishing boats that didn't attempt to fight back.

Needless to say, the British were not happy at their fishing fleet being attacked, especially once the tabloids went to town on it. The Times reported that "It is almost inconceivable that any men calling themselves seamen, however frightened they might be, could spend twenty minutes bombarding a fleet of fishing boats without discovering the nature of their target." It was made doubly awkward by the fact that Britain and Japan were allies (but, because this was a war of Japanese aggression, the alliance's terms didn't activate so Britain didn't enter the war).

The British prepared their navy for war, putting on alert a fleet 4 times the size of the entire Russian Navy. They also shadowed the cursed squadron with cruisers as they sailed around Western Europe.

After Russia agreed to an investigation into the incident, Britain opted not to declare war on Russia and instead signed an agreement to let the Hague sort it out, which they did.

So, what if this absolute disaster was even worse, and the British listened to the tabloids instead of using diplomacy to de-escalate? Does Germany smell blood in the water? How does France react to losing the Triple Entente? How badly does the Russian Navy get its arse handed to it? Finally, how would this affect the eventual peace?
 
France would be keeping very, very quiet while the Royal Navy hunted down and destroyed the Russian Navy wherever it may be.
Which might actually work out better for the Russians.

The shame of the fleet's destruction OTL was partly from it being the Japanese who crushed them like bugs, racial theories of the time being what they were. A bunch of non-Europeans should not have beaten a European force, certainly not in a technology-heavy field like naval warfare.

The Royal Navy doing the Russian Navy in would at least fit into the prevailing beliefs. Britannia rules the waves was more than just a line from a popular song. It might also have given second thoughts to the Kaiser concerning building a fleet to challenge Britain.
 
It is my understanding that Japan was almost broke toward the end of the war. Would Britain now be open to loans to Japan to keep on fighting as an additional way to punish Russia>
 

ahmedali

Banned
Britain will join Japan against Russia and the result will end like OTL

Except for huge reparations to Japan, the Japanese took all of Sakhalin

This alone will have huge effects on Japan that may prevent them from turning crazy and extremist

Russia will revolt like OTL but stronger

With the Kaiser having a bruise on his face, he will bow down or abdicate (he will abdicate because he won't compromise his beliefs)

Russia will lose parts of Central Asia in order to bring it under the influence of Britain

(Bukhara, Kokand, Khiva, and push the Iranian and Afghan borders, for example)

Poland, parts of the Caucasus and Bessarabia could lose due to the more powerful flames of the 1905 revolution.

(Kaiser will want a buffer state, the Sultan will recover his losses, and the King of Romania wants to recover what is considered legitimate Romanian land)

The positive benefit is that Russia will turn into a real constitutional monarchy, and Japan will not turn to extremism

(May lead to avoiding the annexation of Korea and leaving it as a puppet state)

Germany will benefit that Britain will not stand with France in the crisis of Morocco, and this may mean greater German colonial gains

The negative is that Roosevelt does not win the Nobel Prize
 
France is not going to join war. Its defense pact was against Germany not Britain. Germany would watch too aside. Not sure how its politics would change.

Revolution would be even bigger since people would are even angrier when tsar has allowed Russia going war against superpower. Probably there is real constitution which effectively enforces tsar giving power to Duma. Or monarchy might even fall totally.

This probably would has intresting effects on WW1 if still occurs same way as in OTL. Britain might be bit unwillingful supply Russia so it is going to fall even more rapidly.
 

TDM

Kicked
GB is not going to risk the long term repercussions for foreign policy that would come from sinking that miserable excuse for a fleet, over 2 dead and 6 injured.

It's not about could they do it or the immediate outcome of the Japanese - Russian war of 1905 being bad for them if they did, it's that it would change relations significantly between two great powers and that would have big ramifications that even a victorious GB might not want.

Sad to say while everyone was not impressed by Russia's absolute cack-handedness here and their ineptness did lead to lose of innocent life, this wasn't then and isn't now the only incident were some navy killed civilians by accident. (Even if it was one of the most ridiculous examples)! We tend not to sink entire fleets with the resultant much larger death tolls over these incidents.
 
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The RN had put the Channel Fleet on alert and it was ready to sail, the Med fleet was also at Gibraltar and was waiting on orders to sail North. The diplomatic measures stopped it and I think that the UK wouldn't have gone to war over this.

BUT, if the RN had a cruiser shadowing the Russian fleet and they spotted it at night and went "AMFG ITS THE JAPANESE!!!" and opened up on her and got lucky before the Cruiser managed to disengage, and either badly shot her up or managed to sink her then the next morning the 2nd Pacific Squadron would find its path blocked by the Channel Fleet with its guns pointed at them.
 
We've had a few threads on this subject and the consensus, which I generally agree with, is that the UK really didn't want a war with Russia, the country was too-useful a potential ally if certain conflicts of interests could be settled. After all the Angle-Japanese alliance was intended to protect British interests in the Far East, specifically India.

It would take an awful lot more damage that happened historically to precipitate an actual war; everyone from Fisher downwards wanted matters settled peacefully..
Sana someone (e.g. a bunch of time travellers with a stolen submarine) deliberately meddling you'd need to exacerbate the situation rather severely, perhaps with an RN vessel sunk (or at least damaged) by Russian forces. Assuming the Russians could manage this....

So if we assume a British warship is damaged significantly and the losses of the trawlers are worse the pressure for some sort of action might be irresistible, despite the efforts of Balfour and Fisher (maybe Beresford, who disliked Fisher, gets involved). If something else happened to exacerbate matters perhaps negotiation might be replaced by war.
One suitable incident is somewhat plausible; historically Count Benckendorff (the Russian ambassador) was heckled when he walked to the Foreign Office on the Saturday morning to answer the summons ro explain matters. [Ah the days when ambassadors walked the streets without bodyguards...] Let's say someone attacks him. It could be an outraged Briton hurling a brick, or one of the Russian émigrés with a taste for political violence.

The British press (remember this is the period of Horatio Bottomly) jump in with both feed and demand war against Russia. The Russians are equally outraged by the murder of their ambassador and unwilling to negotiate.
 

ahmedali

Banned
There goes the Russo-French alliance and hence the Triple Entente.

There is a perfect hole for France

It is the Russian-French alliance against Germany, so the Russians cannot activate it against Japan


Concord will still exist if Wilhelm II is still hostile to all, but may gain colonies in the first crisis of Morocco
 

ahmedali

Banned
France is not going to join war. Its defense pact was against Germany not Britain. Germany would watch too aside. Not sure how its politics would change.

Revolution would be even bigger since people would are even angrier when tsar has allowed Russia going war against superpower. Probably there is real constitution which effectively enforces tsar giving power to Duma. Or monarchy might even fall totally.

This probably would has intresting effects on WW1 if still occurs same way as in OTL. Britain might be bit unwillingful supply Russia so it is going to fall even more rapidly.

The monarchy was more stable in 1905 than in 1917

So Russia will turn into a real constitutional monarchy, but the Tsar may be forced to abdicate
 
There goes the Russo-French alliance and hence the Triple Entente.

Franco-Russian Entente is not going anywhere. These were too important for each others.

Rahterly Britain and Germany might be able to find deal over naval issues.

The monarchy was more stable in 1905 than in 1917

So Russia will turn into a real constitutional monarchy, but the Tsar may be forced to abdicate

Nicholas II probably ratherly would abdicate than be just ceremonial head of state.

That is going to be intresting. Alexei was only just one year old. So that means quiet long regency.
 

ahmedali

Banned
Franco-Russian Entente is not going anywhere. These were too important for each others.

Rahterly Britain and Germany might be able to find deal over naval issues.



Nicholas II probably ratherly would abdicate than be just ceremonial head of state.

That is going to be intresting. Alexei was only just one year old. So that means quiet long regency.
The regent will be Grand Duke Michael, brother of Nicholas, or Grand Duke Nicholas Nikolaevich (because Michael will not want to rule)

Since the Regency does not have a good history in Russia (Ivan the Terrible, Ivan VI, especially Ivan VI)

The regent will decide to depose Alexei and take the throne himself for stability

(So we may see Nicholas III or Michael II)
 
There is a perfect hole for France

It is the Russian-French alliance against Germany, so the Russians cannot activate it against Japan


Concord will still exist if Wilhelm II is still hostile to all, but may gain colonies in the first crisis of Morocco
Assuming there is a Russia to ally with.
 

ahmedali

Banned
Assuming there is a Russia to ally with.
Germany still threatens Russia and did not cut ties with France when they did not intervene


I see the same thing happening except for the addition of a new member of the Entente, the Kingdom of Poland (which might succeed at independence in 1905 thanks to a more powerful revolution).
 
Germany still threatens Russia and did not cut ties with France when they did not intervene


I see the same thing happening except for the addition of a new member of the Entente, the Kingdom of Poland (which might succeed at independence in 1905 thanks to a more powerful revolution).
If Poland is independent, as fairly massive historical deviation, it's not tonight join a Franco-Russian Entente unless it is a Russian vassal.

If Russia suffers a larger and more humiliating defeat to the Angle-Japanese forces the shift in Russian politics will be greater than historical. A new Tsar and a functional Duma at the very least.
 
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