So IRL the Russo-Japanese War saw quite a bit of tension between Russia and England, and during the long voyage of the Black Sea Fleet the Russians attacked English fishermen because they thought they were Japanese destroyers (seriously.)
So what if the incident was worse- and it escalated to war between Russia and England? This almost certainly could spiral out of control- the Franco-Russian allaince was, after all, initially intended as much against Russia as anything else and it's not impossible that France also decides to get involved... at which point Germany and/or Italy could also decide to jump on France and Russia. I can't see this ending well for France- say that the Triple Alliance (with Japan) inflict a decisive defeat (Germans take Paris), and you see a general dismantling of France's colonial empire plus some other changes (say Italy gets Corsica and/or Nice, maybe even Savoy), and Japan takes both Manchuria and Indochina. Germany only takes colonies (Morocco, plus French West or Equatorial Africa) and establishes a Congress Poland client kingdom in the east.
What happens next? Obviously IMO Italy will be heavily courted by the English (to peel her away from the Triple Alliance), and depending on what she has taken from France the latter could probably be brought to terms as well... or it could see Germany and Italy remaining allied to a wary England against a revanchist Franco-Russian alliance (including perhaps also Austria).
So what if the incident was worse- and it escalated to war between Russia and England? This almost certainly could spiral out of control- the Franco-Russian allaince was, after all, initially intended as much against Russia as anything else and it's not impossible that France also decides to get involved... at which point Germany and/or Italy could also decide to jump on France and Russia. I can't see this ending well for France- say that the Triple Alliance (with Japan) inflict a decisive defeat (Germans take Paris), and you see a general dismantling of France's colonial empire plus some other changes (say Italy gets Corsica and/or Nice, maybe even Savoy), and Japan takes both Manchuria and Indochina. Germany only takes colonies (Morocco, plus French West or Equatorial Africa) and establishes a Congress Poland client kingdom in the east.
What happens next? Obviously IMO Italy will be heavily courted by the English (to peel her away from the Triple Alliance), and depending on what she has taken from France the latter could probably be brought to terms as well... or it could see Germany and Italy remaining allied to a wary England against a revanchist Franco-Russian alliance (including perhaps also Austria).