The provinces and later Diocese of Africa was one of the wealthiest parts of the Roman Empire, providing much of the food to the European world. This begs the question: what if the barbarians were unable to conquer the region, getting stalled in Spain and Scicily? Would North Africa stand as the last remnant of the western empire like the Byzantines in the east or perhaps simply swear allegiance to Constantinople? Or was the area doomed and would it falter and collapse without the protection of the eternal city? What of language? would Afro-romance survive (perhaps simply as "African")?
WI: The Diocese of Africa Wasn't Conquered By The Germanic Barbarians?
- Thread starter AltoRegnant
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As long as they control North Africa, the Western Empire can endure pretty much indefinitely, and their finances are in significantly better shape-the loss of Africa was a mortal financial and economic blow. So let's say through some means or another, the Vandals don't get a foothold in Africa-either Boniface doesn't invite them (if you believe that theory), or he defeats him, or they just get bogged down in other affairs in Spain in the late 420s.
The empire in this time is dealing with the uneasy triumvirate of Aetius, Flavius Felix, and Boniface-assuming things turn out as per OTL, Aetius will emerge triumphant here, over a western empire in a fair bit better shape without the loss of Africa (though it should be noted for various periods during Aetius's tenure the Vandals in Africa were on fairly decent terms with Aetius). Perhaps here in Spain the Vandals could be of more use as an ally against the Baguadae, Visigoths, and Suevi as Aetius and Asturius try to bring the peninsula back under control. In either case, when Aetius inevitbably bites it the empire may not immediately begin falling to pieces this time.
The empire in this time is dealing with the uneasy triumvirate of Aetius, Flavius Felix, and Boniface-assuming things turn out as per OTL, Aetius will emerge triumphant here, over a western empire in a fair bit better shape without the loss of Africa (though it should be noted for various periods during Aetius's tenure the Vandals in Africa were on fairly decent terms with Aetius). Perhaps here in Spain the Vandals could be of more use as an ally against the Baguadae, Visigoths, and Suevi as Aetius and Asturius try to bring the peninsula back under control. In either case, when Aetius inevitbably bites it the empire may not immediately begin falling to pieces this time.
Do you think Italy would still fall to the Goths and then the Lombards ttl, or would a surviving north Africa be enough support that its more manageable?
Well why would the Goths be in Italy? Theodoric was sent that way by Zeno to both rid himself of a problem and deal with Odoacer. It was very specific circumstances, circumstances that are not going to exist in this timeline where the western empire is still around and doing fairly decently. With the Lombards that was also a result of the destablization in Italy produced by Justinian's campaign of reconquest, and is, in any case, a century+ down the line from our PoD-things are going to be very different.
Obviously alternative scenarios that lead to the Goths and/or Lombards ending up invading Italy can be crafted, but the specific OTL invasions will be butterflied away.
honestly i got it mixed up and thought that the goths were making problems at about the same time. About how much more time do you think this could buy Ravenna?
Well like I said in my original post, I think the Western Empire could survive pretty much indefinitely as long as they hold North Africa. It gives them the resources and finances to maintain their hold on to positions elsewhere in Gaul and campaign in Spain.
TBH I think that Gaul and Spain were pretty much lost causes by this point. The Empire would be better off establishing a new and more defensible frontier along the Alps. (Not that I expect this to actually happen -- ideologically speaking, just giving up on half the Western Empire would be a very heavy blow, even if it made sense strategically.)
With the WRE being able to keep Africa, its manpower, resources and money, it might survive with only Italy and Africa as its core territories. It would lose Gallia & Hispania but might be able to keep Illyricum as well.
If the WRE survives and manages to keep Illyricum as well, the ERE doesn't need to have soo many troops on its western border and can focus more on the east thus butterflying everything as well since there are no Justinian conquests.
If the WRE survives and manages to keep Illyricum as well, the ERE doesn't need to have soo many troops on its western border and can focus more on the east thus butterflying everything as well since there are no Justinian conquests.
As others have already said, africa staying in Roman hands is a major boost to the western empire. More food, more gold, more troops yada yada yada. The empires ability to retaliate is some what better than IOTL. They can turn their attentions to the other threats at hand much earlier. In addition to this with another Germanic group fighting in Hispania the suebi and visigoths will have another opponent that'll keep them busy. It’s not impossible that they could establish some sort of authority over the barbarian held Hispania and southern Gaul.
@Fabius Maximus I don’t think so. Majorian was able to make significant inroads to reconquering these areas. A far better off empire should be able to retake and hold this lands.
@Fabius Maximus I don’t think so. Majorian was able to make significant inroads to reconquering these areas. A far better off empire should be able to retake and hold this lands.
They weren't able to keep control of them in the 410s, when their position was comparatively better. At best, they'd probably be able to make the barbarians accept Roman overlordship. Even then, though, the barbarians would probably start expanding at Roman expense as soon as the Empire's attention was turned elsewhere.
In the short term this seems likely, but given a century to stabilize the core of Italy, Africa, and maybe Illyria, could we see a Justinian style reconquest from the WRE? Not necessarily a glorious reformation of the entire empire, but reconquering parts of coastal Hispania, Provence, etc.
That would require time I still think even with north africa with the huns and bad leadership northern gaul would be lost as well as parts of hispania