WI The Day After Tomorrow happened?

[Birmo]

I remember watching T.D.A.T while on tour in Melbourne for Weapons of Choice. I love a big dumb movie as much as the next guy. But I came out wondering, what if I actually happened. As best I recall the new ice seemed to strike most heavily at the northern hemispere, leaving the south largely unaffected; hence the irony of American refugees in Mexico and all points south.

So, if it happened. How would you see global politics playing out with most of the population above the equator snap frozen?

 

[docdoom7]

I too like the end of the world type movies (and books, obviously!). When I had more free time I used to write whole novels just for myself about the subject (I was, and still am, quite the nerd!).

To me, the most interesting thing is what would happen AFTER the event. I appreciate large scale destruction as much as the next guy but the aftermath is where the true story lies to me. In all the disaster movies they usually end with the hero reunited with his/her family, looking on to a rosy future of cooperation where man is united .... yeah right

First, we are now in a global society, so we instantly have a complete and total collapse of the world economy (especially since so many economic powerhouses are under ice!). Did the ice get to the middle east? if so, oil is going to become a problem. I'd imagine tons of wars sparking up allll over the place as the displaced population form the north moves south and southern hemisphere countries go to war with each other over basic resources. Massive famine and disease the world over, the grain belt of the U.S. is now good for nothing except snowmobiling. I'd assume a lot of the US and other militaries survived... they'd be the most well equiped to get out. So perhaps the U.S. and northern hemisphere countires would quite simply take over new land for themselves.

I dunno, just some ideas. All I know is it wouldn't be a pleasant place to live. Just looking at what 9/11 did to the world economy and also the problems faced by victims of Hurricane Katrina... and Katrina was WITH a fully functioning (insert slam on the gov'ment here!) government behind it. Definetly not a pretty picture if the northern hemisphere gets frozen. I'd say the basics would be worldwide economic collapse, worldwide famine, worldwide disease... with the politics surfacing more after that second wave of death caused by all that.

Always fun to think about the end of human life I just got "Earth Abides", "Lucifers Hammer" and "Weapons of Choice" from Amazon.com on Saturday.. two ends of the world and one time travel book should keep me busy for a few days

edit: wait, you're the author of WoC right? I actually finished it earlier today, time travel usually isn't my thing but I really enjoyed that book. Looking forward to the second!

 

[sbegin]

I'm with you on this, I would love to know more about what happened at the end of Deep Impact, after the asteroid hit the earth!
One thing I didn't agree with the Day after movie: the US was sitting at the border of Mexico, waiting to be invited in. I don't see that. They'll go in. Period.
Oh well, I guess here in Canada, we're screwed!

 

[docdoom7]

I'm with you on this, I would love to know more about what happened at the end of Deep Impact, after the asteroid hit the earth!
One thing I didn't agree with the Day after movie: the US was sitting at the border of Mexico, waiting to be invited in. I don't see that. They'll go in. Period.
Oh well, I guess here in Canada, we're screwed!

Yeah Deep Impact wouldn't be as bad since you could reclaim the land hit by the wave... but you're still talking the loss of the Eastern Seaboard (and maybe parts of Europe, Africa and South America. That wave must have gone out in all directions!). There'd be a lot of jobs rebuilding thats for sure!

I agree with the U.S. being too "nice" in Day... I'd also see them and other Northern Hemisphere countries being like "sorry...we're movin in" and just taking land.

Look on the bright side, in Canada you must get good practice for the next ice age every winter

 

[kinda]

Would the south hemisphere remain unfrozen?

It would all depend on how the weather patterns shifted, and I don't know enough climatology to make an informed guess. It's possible the Sahara would bloom. The Panama Canal would definitely be left high and dry.

If we assume that the equatorial areas are suddenly going to be a lot nicer, we'll have an interesting situation in the Middle East. All these Muslim nations will suddenly have the most valuable real estate on Earth. But Islam is traditionally a desert religion, and they have (in my honest and hopefully non-offensive opinion) a desert philosophy. It would be interesting to see how the Middle East would react to sudden agricultural wealth.

I also predict quixotic plans to melt the ice caps and eco-terrorism in the real sense -- people attacking glaciers and mountains. Dumb as it sounds, I bet any sustained climatological catastrophe would engender resentment among a certain class of people, and someone would almost certainly try to nuke a glacier. In spite of the fact that that's about the dumbest thing ever. As a matter of fact, that's so dumb I'm going to use it for Megatexas.

I also think someone might try to put a mirror in orbit to melt the northern latitudes.

There would also be a permanent moon colony and a big orbital presence. You'd also see people begin to move to homes in lighter-than-air vehicles and into homes under the sea. I think you'll see a lot more blimps -- with current materials technology, a motivated engineer could construct a blimp that would put Goodyear to shame.

 

[Johnestauffer]

I'm already home....

Well, since I live in San Diego, the Day After Tomorrow means more trips across the border. It was interesting that nothing in the movie spoke to the situation in the border cities. Here in SD we would be deluged with refugees.
It would seriously strain the ability of the city to cope.

In a lot of areas you would really have to reinvent the wheel. Look at the financial side. What about someone from Oregon who owned their own business, had substantial investments, etc. What about them? Where would their money be? (What if all their accounts were frozen?)

In looking at the world in general, how much industry would be located in the inhospitable area? Could we produce sufficient food to maintain the remaing population? Wouldn't this excerbate the oil crisis with the need for the larger amounts of energy for heating?

It would be a 'fascinating' time at any rate.

 

[Mark]

Would the south hemisphere remain unfrozen?

It would all depend on how the weather patterns shifted, and I don't know enough climatology to make an informed guess. It's possible the Sahara would bloom. The Panama Canal would definitely be left high and dry.

Accepting the premise of the movie, I sure the climate would be very unsettled for several years. Eventually, based on the last glacial maximum, the tropical rain forests would be greatly reduced in size. The Sahara and various other desert regions (I think including the US Southwest) would have increased rainfall, which would initially cause erosion, but eventually support vegetation.

The Southern Hemisphere would not be as greatly affected, simply because there isn't as much land in the right places. Glaciers forming in Canada can move south into the US. Glaciers forming on Antarctica hit the ocean. South America, Africa, and Australia are too far north for continental glaciers to form (of course, mountain glaciers all over will greatly increase).

One thing in the movie I didn't figure out at all: When NY flooded, where did the water come from? Sea level should be dropping, not rising.

 

[Birmo]

Would the south hemisphere remain unfrozen?

Well, I wouldn't lose a lot of sleep over the science in the movie. But the premise is interesting to play with. I just had a look at the movie's web site and altho it's very difficult to navigate, it seems that as a rough rule of thumb everything above the Tropic of Cancer was snap frozen. So there was no evacutation. Most of North America is gone. Say, Florida, So Cal and some of the hotter southern states were just warm enough to get their peope out. Europe, Russia and China are ex-parrots. Everyone there is now a popsicle. Japan likewise.

Interestingly, significant elements of the US Armed Forces would survive because they are posted to – God help this pun – hot spots. The Middle East, SE Asia, Guam, Hawaii and so.

North East Asia appears to be frozen toast too. Climatically South America, Africa and Mexico are fine and dandy, except for all of the heavily armed gringos knocking at the door. Australia and New Zealand escape largely unscathed, except for greatly increased storm activity in Australia's northern latitudes. Most of India survives.

So, a sticky situation. I'd agree that the geopolitics would very quickly regress to a Hobbesian state, a war of all against all. As a matter of demographic survival I'd lay money on the barrel head that Australian and New Zealand would work out some loose federation deal and offer sanctuary to millions of American refugees, along with surviving elements of the US Armed Forces. I suspect however there would be some ugly selection criteria involved in who got a ticket Downunder.

I can see a huge armed enclave of American refugees taking over large swathes of Mexico. Like all refugees they would be ghettoized, but unlike all refugees they wouldn't be powerless. I guess the international financial system would freeze up completely (har-har), but there are enough National Guard and regular military forces stationed in US South to have their way in Mexico. So money wouldn't save them, but bullets might.

The Middle East, a blood bath. Without the US to back Isreal, expect a war. Probably nuclear.

India would shape up as the new global hyperpower, except she might not be able to feed her masses, which could lead quickly to military adventurism.(Hence the interest of Aust and NZ in securing both US forces and population flows.) The rice fields of South East Asia, would beckon. Indonesia, the Phillipines and Malayasia seem to escape refrigeration, but whether their political systems are robust enough to survive is questionable. Expect civil war in the first two, and a fascist state in Malaysia.

I imagine half a million or so Americans might be resettled into Hawaii, but food resources would be very scarce.

Man, I'm loving this so much I think I might write a new book!

 

[Count Dearborn]

I have heard a theory that an Ice Age wouldn't have big ice sheets, but longer and more devistating winters. In Illinois, in recent winters, we get a few weeks of -40 temps (Farheniet), but by the model set for in the theory mentione, there would be months of such temperatures. Perhaps the Midwest would turn into tundra?

 

[kinda]

A good point has been raised -- if we follow the movie, we aren't following climatology, and vice versa. I think I'll follow the movie on this thread.

In that case, where did the elevated water in Manhattan come from? I guess the idea was that so much melting ice got into the ocean that the levels were temporarily raised, and the superstorms froze them at that point.

You'd probably see the polar bear making a comeback.

Heavily armed gringoes would probably invade Mexico. Come to think of it, there are a lot of border areas where that might happen -- Turkey comes to mind, as does North Africa.

I read recently that the weight of the glaciers depressed the continental plates substantially. So look for earthquakes along the rims plates, like California.

The mediterranean coast of Africa would be one of the nicest places in the world. The extra rainfall and dropping sea levels would make them very nice. The old Gulf basin would probably drain substantially to reveal huge tracts of incredible farmland (and much, much industrial pollution) -- a Netherlands-type confederacy could easily develop there after ten or twenty years. Since the world would be colder (would the world be colder? Where is this heat lost to?), hurricanes might not be as big of a problem.

 

[Birmo]

A good point has been raised -- if we follow the movie, we aren't following climatology, and vice versa. I think I'll follow the movie on this thread.

In that case, where did the elevated water in Manhattan come from?

As I recall, there was a storm surge which prodced a giant wave that looked a lot cooler than that cgi piece of crap in Deep Impact, or Asteroid or whatever it was.

I think you're right about northern Africa becoming a nice place to live. But the societies currently resident there probably wouldn't produce stable civilisation for a looooong time.

 

[Torqumada]

As I recall, there was a storm surge which prodced a giant wave that looked a lot cooler than that cgi piece of crap in Deep Impact, or Asteroid or whatever it was.

I think you're right about northern Africa becoming a nice place to live. But the societies currently resident there probably wouldn't produce stable civilisation for a looooong time.

A storm surge is caused by a decrease in the air pressure, causing the water to rise and fill the space formerly filled by air. For water to to rise that hight, the air pressure would have to drop a great deal, and none of the people in movie reacted to a drop in air pressure: Complaining that their ears were popping, sinus pressure headaches, passing out from a lack of oxygen since a storm surge of that size could only be caused by a large drop in air pressure etc... It wasn't a storm surge. It was just bad Hollywood science.

Torqumada

 

[mattep74]

Yeah Deep Impact wouldn't be as bad since you could reclaim the land hit by the wave... but you're still talking the loss of the Eastern Seaboard (and maybe parts of Europe, Africa and South America. That wave must have gone out in all directions!). There'd be a lot of jobs rebuilding thats for sure!

in the final speach by the president

the wave hit Africa and Europe to. BUT, most of Europe would be shielded by UK, Ireland, Spain and Portugal

 

[mattep74]

if the superstorms happened i would die since the eye would hit Sweden before Sweden was fully evacuated

 

[Fellatio Nelson]

I've got that film on DVD (somewhere, anyway), but I thought it tailed off after the bombs went off.

Also, having the guy from Third Rock in it was rather distracting: kept on expecting him to do something manic.

 

[Max Sinister]

@docdoom: I also like that kind of books and movies - however, I have to say that although I like the theme, I think that all the existing books & movies haven't done as good as they could. I can't say what exactly is missing... you have an idea?

 

[Fellatio Nelson]

Actually, I am thinking of another film there was a thread about. Oh well...

 

[sbegin]

@docdoom: I also like that kind of books and movies - however, I have to say that although I like the theme, I think that all the existing books & movies haven't done as good as they could. I can't say what exactly is missing... you have an idea?

Have you read the two books by James P. Hogan, Cradle of Saturn and Anguished Dawn? Earth being almost hit by a large moon/asteroid, almost total destruction, etc. I thought it was quite well done.
I watch everyone of those disaster movies, even the bad, made for television ones (like the one about the 5 hurricanes hitting Chicago that was on not too long ago), I'm just a sucker for mayhem and destruction, I guess.

 

[Romulus Augustulus]

Uhh...the events depicted in that movie are impossible according to all the laws of physics and atmospheric behavior. Simply not physically possible...that movie is unrealistic as hell.

 

[Straha]

If the superstormes went off I'd die pretty damn fast