WI the Danube becomes German (Magyars defeated)

What if the Danube basin (conquered by Charlemagne) stays ruled by Germans rather then Magyars, and then subsequently germanises rather then magyarises (similar to Germany east of the Oder).
What would the results be? Mega-Austria? German domination of the Balkans?
 

Delvestius

Banned
The Carpathian basin would be inhabited by Eastern Germanic speakers and would probably exert dominance over Eastern Europe to the border of the Byzantines, kind of like how Super-Hungary did OTL. They may even become dominate in OTL Southern Germany, while the Saxony would form to the north.
 

Deleted member 1487

What if the Danube basin (conquered by Charlemagne) stays ruled by Germans rather then Magyars, and then subsequently germanises rather then magyarises (similar to Germany east of the Oder).
What would the results be? Mega-Austria? German domination of the Balkans?
Yeah, mega-Austria, perhaps including Bavaria at some point and domination of Bohemia and Moravia. With many more Germans the 15th century boom that Hungary experienced would be that much greater due to Austria being involved and Bohemia falling under its sway. The Germanic influence in the Balkans would be massive and dominating until the Turks show up; things get interesting when they do, as Hungary fought the Turks by themselves until they couldn't and joined Austria, but here the Austrians would be sucked in earlier, so perhaps the Turks never make it to the gates of Vienna?
HRE includes Hungary here then:
Europe_mediterranean_1190_cropped.jpg



The Carpathian basin would be inhabited by Eastern Germanic speakers and would probably exert dominance over Eastern Europe to the border of the Byzantines, kind of like how Super-Hungary did OTL. They may even become dominate in OTL Southern Germany, while the Saxony would form to the north.
Depends on when exactly. Butterflies from this would be huge.
 
Yeah, mega-Austria, perhaps including Bavaria at some point and domination of Bohemia and Moravia. With many more Germans the 15th century boom that Hungary experienced would be that much greater due to Austria being involved and Bohemia falling under its sway. The Germanic influence in the Balkans would be massive and dominating until the Turks show up; things get interesting when they do, as Hungary fought the Turks by themselves until they couldn't and joined Austria, but here the Austrians would be sucked in earlier, so perhaps the Turks never make it to the gates of Vienna?
HRE includes Hungary here then:
Europe_mediterranean_1190_cropped.jpg




Depends on when exactly. Butterflies from this would be huge.

You do not understand the concept of butterflies, my friend.
The Turks would no longer exist (in Europe) for this scenario to occur.
Even if they did, it was just the luck of the shittiest Byzantine dynasty (the Angeloi) popping up and giving them a chance to grow. Pretty much, no Seljuk, no Seljuk Rum, no Ottomans.

Back on the topic of the German Danube, they would dominant the Balkans, forcing most of the Slavs in the region to Germanise, but probably with the Germans controlling that much territory, they would most likely be semi-divided and the HRE would not come into existence (well it wouldn't be the same for sure). You could see a pan-German league of alliances but that's the best scenario I can see. Also in this time period Austria was just a part of Bavaria (only the Habsburgs made it a big deal), so it would be more over a Bayern/East Franciawank that an Austriawank.
 
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Delvestius

Banned
You could see a pan-German league of alliances but that's the best scenario I can see.

The Eastern Germans here were Aryan Christians early on. This wouldn't make them candidates for allaince, and if they were powerful enough to hold off the Magyars in the first place then I can't imagine any Catholic power would be able to conquer them. Most likely we would see the rise of an independent Aryan church, unless a ruler converts to Catholicism or Orthodoxy later on.
 
What if the Danube basin (conquered by Charlemagne) stays ruled by Germans rather then Magyars, and then subsequently germanises rather then magyarises (similar to Germany east of the Oder).
What would the results be? Mega-Austria? German domination of the Balkans?

Well frankly I'd argue that if the Magyars defeated the most likely scenario is that the Germans just get swept out by another tribe (Pechenegs? Cumans?) coming from the steppes at some point. Hungary is decent enough land for a Horde I suppose, and the Germans probably don't have enough people to protect the entirety of the area from a horde.

But assume that Germany germanizes the region (by which you probably mean the urban areas). Can't imagine that the HRE wouldn't create a 'Duchy of Ungarn' to govern the land, though I doubt he'd give the whole of Hungary to one Duke. Despite that the new Duchies would probably be rather unstable, having to control native revolts and everything - which would probably aid in the creation of a powerful warrior class, maybe made up of minor nobles' sons seeking their fortune.

The presence of Germanic dukedoms in Hungary would have large consequences for the HRE and Europe as a whole, starting with the possibility of these dukedoms intervening in the Saxon/Slav/Wendish revolts of the 10th/11th centuries, which OTL brought Bohemia to prominence. Encouragement of German settlement in Hungary would also draw migrants away from other Eastern European territories, e.g. Poland or the Baltics; or alternatively would have drawn more people away from Western Germany. The slow process of Germanization could also have meant that Croatia never gets absorbed into Hungary, and Hungary doesn't pose such a threat to Bulgaria/Byzantium, which would change the strategic calculus of both those empires.

Basically a Germanized Hungary would generate so many butterflies that predicting what would happen in the 12th Century would be problematic enough, never mind the 15th Century where posters start talking about strong Austria and no Ottoman domination.
 
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Well frankly I'd argue that if the Magyars defeated the most likely scenario is that the Germans just get swept out by another tribe (Pechenegs? Cumans?) coming from the steppes at some point. Hungary is decent enough land for a Horde I suppose, and the Germans probably don't have enough people to protect the entirety of the area from a horde.

Sounds reasonable, but then the Magyars were the last of such tribes entering the Pannonioan bassin and weren't defeated by other coming later. Probably that stems from them establishing a stable Kingdom - but then it implies that the Germans could do the same. at lest theoretically.

But assume that Germany germanizes the region (by which you probably mean the urban areas). Can't imagine that the HRE wouldn't create a 'Duchy of Ungarn' to govern the land, though I doubt he'd give the whole of Hungary to one Duke. Despite that the new Duchies would probably be rather unstable, having to control native revolts and everything - which would probably aid in the creation of a powerful warrior class, maybe made up of minor nobles' sons seeking their fortune.

I'm not sure whether there are many Urban areas left after Hunnic and Magyar rule and given that large parts of the basin never were under Roman rule. My guess is that Germanization works as in the East: local (Magyar, but also earlier people) rulers call for German settlers, German nobles come to carve out their estate, the upper echelons are made up of Germans or heavily intermarry with Germans, and then once urbanization really comes back there'll also be German cities.

The major problem here is that if Germany had had a larger population surplus IOTL to full Hungary or other places in the Esat, it likely would have done so. Where do the people come from?

Basically a Germanized Hungary would generate so many butterflies that predicting what would happen in the 12th Century would be problematic enough, not to mention the 15th Century where posters start talking about strong Austria and no Ottoman domination.

Absolutely.
 

Deleted member 1487

The major problem here is that if Germany had had a larger population surplus IOTL to full Hungary or other places in the Esat, it likely would have done so. Where do the people come from?

This is the crux of the problem. Unless the Franks leave behind a lot of people after crushing the Avars, I don't see the area really having a Germanic character, less so even than Bohemia, which fit the description of having a German urban area and wasn't really Germanized.

It should be noted too that the Magyars were pretty well beaten up when they marched into the Basin, but were able to sweep aside resistance and establish a state, because the Frank pretty much devastated the area when it was ruled by the Avars and left a wasteland dotted here and there with survivors. Had they settled their own people there and colonized it well by the time the Magyars show up there shouldn't be room for them to successfully invade, as they really weren't capable of a stand up fight after fighting on the Steppe for a while and were looking for a safe refuge, which the area historically turned out to be. Populated with Franks and Austro-Bavarians it would have been too much to overcome for the Magyars and probably remained Germanic; what happens though when the Golden Horde shows up and devastates the area again in the 13th century?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hunga...n#Carpathian_Basin_on_the_eve_of_the_Conquest
 
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