WI: The Continental System Worked

What if Napoléon's Continental System actually worked and forced Britain to surrender? Let's assume that Russia never tried to back out and thus no Russian campaign so that the French Empire lasts longer. What happens to Britain then? Does Napoléon still try to occupy the island for a short time just to say he can? He still probably can't annex it, but he didn't want to anyway, could he divided it into different kingdoms?
 
What if Napoléon's Continental System actually worked and forced Britain to surrender? Let's assume that Russia never tried to back out and thus no Russian campaign so that the French Empire lasts longer. What happens to Britain then? Does Napoléon still try to occupy the island for a short time just to say he can? He still probably can't annex it, but he didn't want to anyway, could he divided it into different kingdoms?

The problem with the Continental System is that it needs to be extended to the Americas and Asia, you may at the time get away without Africa but ideally you would want North Africa in on it too. In addition of course it hurt France almost as much as it hurt Britain. As it was though there were far more goods that the British had a near monopoly of than the rest of the Europeans combined.

Basically assuming Russia plays along then the French Empire might last a bit longer but the problem will increasingly be that Napoleon is bored. He is going to want to invade someone. His only options are powers with narrow enough sea lane access that the British have more difficulty getting to them than the French...who does that leave?
 
It did damage British trade, especially early on when Spain took part in it. Trade with the Americas could only do so much to replace European trade - traveling thousands of miles for goods instead of hundreds is a huge added expense, and many European goods weren't available in the New World anyway. In the end British traders resorted to a good deal of smuggling.

Napoleon's best chance is to not invade Spain (which would also mean keeping the system going in the Spanish American colonies) and instead stick to the original plan of taking out Portugal. His next best chance is to keep his army in 1812 in Poland and draw the Russians out to a fight.

Victory in that scenario wouldn't cause Britain to literally surrender and be occupied, but it could make it more willing to come to terms in a peace treaty generally favorable to France.
 
The problem with the Continental System is that it needs to be extended to the Americas and Asia, you may at the time get away without Africa but ideally you would want North Africa in on it too. In addition of course it hurt France almost as much as it hurt Britain. As it was though there were far more goods that the British had a near monopoly of than the rest of the Europeans combined.

Basically assuming Russia plays along then the French Empire might last a bit longer but the problem will increasingly be that Napoleon is bored. He is going to want to invade someone. His only options are powers with narrow enough sea lane access that the British have more difficulty getting to them than the French...who does that leave?

The Peninsular War, Napoléon still needs to stabilizes Spain and deal with Portugal, and Iberia does not get anywhere near as cold as Russia. Once Iberia is stabilized the British Asian trade is drastically hurt as they now sail around the Cape of Good Hope. In America we have the War of 1812 still happening, and with Napoléon still a threat Britain is going to be more concerned about Europe which means less resistance for the US. Which just leaves the African Colonies.

Anyway consider this a two POD question, no Russian Campaign and a more effective Continental System, the main question is if Britain did surrendered due to exhaustion could Napoléon divided the country?
 
continental system was one of Nap's biggest blunders. I doubt it has much of a chance of working. it was too detrimental to those adhering to it.

But if it does, Nap isn't going to be stupid enough to invade the islands just to show he could do it.

but you have to define success. no way in hell is Europe going to put up with it forever. once Britain is forced to the peace table, Nap has to relax the CS, or rebellion erupts. and then Britain goes for another round.

I'm not a subscriber to the notion that Nap invaded because he enjoyed it. he invaded (or, just as often, created conditions forcing other countries to invade him) because he was attempting to enact/maintain French hegemony. his aim was European domination, which required war and/or was not conducive to peace, and his preferred method of diplomacy involved military means, but he didn't fight just to fight.
 
c

but you have to define success. no way in hell is Europe going to put up with it forever. once Britain is forced to the peace table, Nap has to relax the CS, or rebellion erupts. and then Britain goes for another round.

Yeah, I would assume that a condition of any peace deal with Britain would be dropping the system.
 
The Peninsular War, Napoléon still needs to stabilizes Spain and deal with Portugal, and Iberia does not get anywhere near as cold as Russia. Once Iberia is stabilized the British Asian trade is drastically hurt as they now sail around the Cape of Good Hope. In America we have the War of 1812 still happening, and with Napoléon still a threat Britain is going to be more concerned about Europe which means less resistance for the US. Which just leaves the African Colonies.

Anyway consider this a two POD question, no Russian Campaign and a more effective Continental System, the main question is if Britain did surrendered due to exhaustion could Napoléon divided the country?

Have fun in Portugal. My point is that Napoleon needs a target he can get to more easily than the British can. Iberia is not it, Italy is not it, the Balkans are not it.

I will take it you mean something like Cape Finisterre rather than the Cape of Good Hope. The thing being the British did do precisely that. The Continental System leaked because no one could stop British ships getting into harbours even in the ports of compliant countries let alone interdict British convoys at sea.

However even assuming some brilliant world shattering success against the Lines of Torres Vedras and Gibraltar both Britain is not going to surrender. They may find revenues drop sufficiently that they need to come to terms but that is a long way short of surrender.

The concise answer to the question can Napoleon break Great Britain and Ireland up into separate kingdoms is no. The longer answer includes the point that Napoleon's army is stuck the wrong side of the water for a very long time. The British could easily hold America off with the troops they could spare from the Peninsula Campaign (it was attacking that needed more troops it generally does) and their fleets still control the oceans of the World. Just bilateral trade with India pays an awful lot of salaries.

The best Napoleon can hope for is a repeat of something like the Peace of Amiens while both sides take stock as pointed out by Unprincipled Peter above and he does not even agree with me that Nappy is just bellicose megalomaniac with a passion for collecting countries, okay maybe I am being a bit harsh, the point there is a lot of pressure on the man requiring him to be seen to do something politically. A peace would do, a war that promised peace would do, an effort at slow strangulation where the other side were not the ones getting strangled is less effective and upsets people.
 
the line of Torres Vedras wasn't established til after Nap screwed the pooch in Spain. Continue with the original plan as stated (see below), and taking over Portugal is a piece of cake. Britain had pretty much written it off until Spanish forces dealth France a bloody nose. Then they woke up and realized they had opportunity to open up a realistic front. That's when they offered assistance to Portugal.

that said, my opinion is that the Portuguese invasion was mere step one in a preplanned invasion of Spain. Spain rightfully saw the danger and didn't want to invade Portugal because it would mean allowing French forces into Spain (they had the same fear in War of Oranges several years earlier), but it became a choice of invade Portugal or be invaded by France. Spain was already doomed at the time of Nap's decision to put an end to Portugal. Godoy knew it, but went for the off chance that maybe Nap would carry through on giving him a kingdom. He originally offered Portugal a defense pact, but then decided to gamble on a fantasy.
 

tenthring

Banned
What was Nappy's goal? Can you imagine an end-state besides God-King that would make him happy?

Look, this was debatable in the mid-180Xs. Maybe he was just doing what he needed to do to preserve France/The Revolution. But increasingly it became obvious that this wasn't about exporting the revolution, it was about Napoleon/French glory and power. At a certain point his executing German dissenters, brutalizing Spain, and then of course letting his men freeze to death in Russia made it obvious what this was about. I'd say by the time of Spain it was no longer a debate, Napoleon had to be stopped.

The Continental system was just a way for a man that couldn't win a naval battle to try and impose his will on Britain. Besides Napoleon, who benefitted from it? Nobody. Certainly not the people of Europe. The continental system didn't work because it was in one man's interest and against the interest of every other person in the world.
 
The Continental system was just a way for a man that couldn't win a naval battle to try and impose his will on Britain. Besides Napoleon, who benefitted from it? Nobody. Certainly not the people of Europe. The continental system didn't work because it was in one man's interest and against the interest of every other person in the world.

In fairness, this can be said of pretty much any economic embargo - they are designed to punish enemy governments by striking at their people.

There were however some in France who benefitted from the Continental System. It stimulated domestic manufacturing, as it now became difficult to obtain British goods. One big problem was that the dependent states of the empire weren't allowed to follow all the same laws as those in France itself, which increased resentment against his authority.
 
Last edited:
a sane embargo hurts the target country more than those imposing the embargo. It's arguable whether that was the case with the continental system, or at least whether the difference in hurt was worth it. the CS was a prime driver behind Nap's ultimate demise: Russia had enough of the CS and dropped out, prompting Nap's ill fated adventure. It wasn't all bad. in addition to fostering some domestic industries, I'm sure those connected to the smuggling industry made a lot of money.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
You know, I actually have to wonder - how much gunpowder was Europe producing? (The British have India, after all, or at any rate can prevent other powers getting India).

It'd be funny if gunpowder smuggling through the Continental System was what had OTL kept the armies of France going!
 
You know, I actually have to wonder - how much gunpowder was Europe producing? (The British have India, after all, or at any rate can prevent other powers getting India).

It'd be funny if gunpowder smuggling through the Continental System was what had OTL kept the armies of France going!


I understand that its boots and greatcoats were largely British made <g>.
 
Does anyone know what Napoléon had wanted to with a surrendered Britain? Because regardless of what we think of him or the Continental System I think we could all agree that would be the first set of terms he would send to them first whether or not he could do it.
 
Does anyone know what Napoléon had wanted to with a surrendered Britain? Because regardless of what we think of him or the Continental System I think we could all agree that would be the first set of terms he would send to them first whether or not he could do it.

Stop blockading Europe's coasts, recognize his conquests.
 
Stop blockading Europe's coasts, recognize his conquests.

Agreed, but given Britain's track record of not really obeying treaty terms, (not that the French had a much better record) that Napoléon would want to do something to keep their spirit crushed. Also I'm assuming returning colonial possessions are a given.
 
Agreed, but given Britain's track record of not really obeying treaty terms, (not that the French had a much better record) that Napoléon would want to do something to keep their spirit crushed. Also I'm assuming returning colonial possessions are a given.

The problem is that the Continental System is for reasons discussed above and others, not a spirit crusher. Napoleon can hope to bring the British to the table, he cannot push his luck there though as the British hold more cards.
 
Top