Anaxagoras
Banned
What if the swing to the Conservatives in January of 1910 had been a bit bigger than it was IOTL and enabled the Tories to garner 336 seats? Does this mean no People's Budget? Does this mean no House of Lords reform?
1) It would definitely mean the end of the People's budget. Its basically what the election was over
2) Reform of the Lords is put off until the future when the Tories once again lose power. How the King reacts would be interesting. George later blamed his inexperience for agreeing to the measures
3) As for WWI, Bonar Law makes it pretty clear in his statements that he and the Tories would back war if needed. That is made before Belgium is invaded and the statement clearly said "fatal to the national honor and security" if we failed to back "France and Russia". So if the Tories are in, the Brits are in the war from the start Belgium or no Belgium
House of Lords reform was coming - it was just a question of when (and how much). But the veto is kept as a going concern for the time being; the more sensible Lords might use the extra time to try and put the genie back in the bottle ("we promise not to block the budget in normal circumstances").
A couple of other questions immediately arise too - how would a majority Tory Government deal with the outbreak of WWI (assuming the Parliament goes full term)? Does this prolong the life of the Liberal Party, since a Tory majority has no need for divisive coalitions, and the Liberals can keep their reforming bona fides intact?