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The result of the general election held on 30 May 1929 was Labour 287 seats, Conservatives 260 seats, Liberals 59 seats, others 9 seats. But the Consrevatives polled 38.1% of the total vote, and Labour 37.1%. (1) Ramsay MacDonald became Prime Minister of a minority Labour government.
However
the reform of rating [local taxation], completed only just before the election, meant that many householders and shopkeepers received their new and increased assessments just before polling day.
Taken from The Conservatives: A History from their Origins to 1965 by Norman Gash et al. London: George Allen & Unwin, 1977.
What if the election was delayed till September or October so that the effect of the rate increases wore off, or if the election was held on the same date but if there were no or smaller increases.
Assuming that compared to the 1929 general election in OTL the swing from Labour to Conservative in Labour won seats in 1929, and from Liberal to Conservative in Liberal won seats was around 1.8%, the result of an alternate general election would be Conservative 309 seats, Labour 252 seats, Liberals 45 seats, and others 9 seats. This would mean a Conservative majority of 3. In practice it would be higher because three pro Conservative independents were elected, but the Speaker was a Conservative MP.
Such a small majority would be vulnerable to losses in by-elections. By 1931 it may have disappeared. In the economic crisis of that year would Baldwin have tried to form a National government with the Liberals and a small section of the Labour Party? Would he call a general election as the head of such a National government? But it might result in Labour winning an overall majority, because they had not been in government since October 1924.
What are people's opinions as to possible developments in British politics?
In the spring of 1929 Baldwin had discussed with Neville Chamberlain and Tom Jones (the Deputy Secretary of the Cabinet) ideas for a drastic change in the cabinet. He wanted to get rid of the older men and "youth was to have its chance". Harold MacMillan was one of the young men he wanted to bring in. (2) He wanted to appoint Churchill to the India Office. "If Austen Chamberlain retired, perhaps his brother Neville could take his place at the Foreign Office, or if not, replace Churchill at the Treasury." Baldwin also conseidered appointing Neville Chamberlain to the Colonial Office. (3)
So a reshuffled cabinet after a Conservative victory in the 1929 general election would have Neville Chamberlain as Chancellor of the Exchequer, Foreign Secretary or Colonial Secretary, and Churchill as Secretary of State for India.
(1) Figures taken from British Electoral Facts 1832-1987, compiled and edited by F.W.S. Craig.
(2) However in OTL 1929 general election MacMillan lost Stockton-on-Tees by 5.1% to Labour.
(3) The information and quotations in this paragraph are taken from Baldwin: A Biography by Keith Middlemas and John Barnes.