WI: The Communists collapse in the USSR after WWII

Would it have been possible for Communism to collapse immediately after WWII in the USSR? And if so, what could be the alternative? A proto-fascist 'democratic' government much like the one today, or a return of the Tsars (because Romanov's successors were emigre at that point) or something else?
 
This thread should've been branded as "Reality Check" rather than a simple WI, because the former will make this question has an actual merit rather than making it sounds like a wishful thinking.

Therefore, I'll go with "Reality Check", because this idea really IS interesting !
 

Jasen777

Donor
Governments don't collapse immediately after won wars. (Unless you are talking about parliamentary control, such as the Churchill government).

Maybe they could have a civil war if Stalin drops dead for no reason right after the war.
 
Something like:

Moscow Falls.

Stalin resolves to stick it out to embolden the Russian people, but instead he dies in a last ditch evacuation attempt as one Otto Skorenzy manages to shoot him dead.

The Soviet Politburo had been pressured into sticking with Stalin--they too are largely captured, killed, or left with only minor figures still alive.

Despite this disaster, the Russian People can not surrender to the German Forces--the Soviet Government may have cracked--but Germany is making a war of race and at this point the Soviet Union gives up all pretensions to communism. The quickly assembled and extremely desperate leadership will strike any deal with any nation to keep their people alive--and this means things like Alexandr Kerensky being summoned, as well as an Emergency Government--a government made of communists, nationalists, reformers and above all else, desperate people out to avoid being put on the chain by the Nazis.

By 1946, the Germany invaders have been crushed. American Nuclear Weapons have stained the strikes over Germany a blood red, and its landscape a coal black.

But what government is left? The Emergency Government was a power-sharing arrangement forced on the Soviet Union in a time of great need and included most of the opposition forces. That said, the Communist Faction is in a very bad position in terms of negotiations--Stalin's victims were legion and perhaps most unforgivably, Stalin's leadership of the war was a disaster.

Thus, in 1946-8, the Communists find themselves marginalized as the new Government agrees to accept American Aid through the Marshall Plan--an arrangement that keeps the Communists down for good, as Russia stumbles with a military dictatorship.
 
Something like:

Moscow Falls.

Stalin resolves to stick it out to embolden the Russian people, but instead he dies in a last ditch evacuation attempt as one Otto Skorenzy manages to shoot him dead.

The Soviet Politburo had been pressured into sticking with Stalin--they too are largely captured, killed, or left with only minor figures still alive.

Despite this disaster, the Russian People can not surrender to the German Forces--the Soviet Government may have cracked--but Germany is making a war of race and at this point the Soviet Union gives up all pretensions to communism. The quickly assembled and extremely desperate leadership will strike any deal with any nation to keep their people alive--and this means things like Alexandr Kerensky being summoned, as well as an Emergency Government--a government made of communists, nationalists, reformers and above all else, desperate people out to avoid being put on the chain by the Nazis.

By 1946, the Germany invaders have been crushed. American Nuclear Weapons have stained the strikes over Germany a blood red, and its landscape a coal black.

But what government is left? The Emergency Government was a power-sharing arrangement forced on the Soviet Union in a time of great need and included most of the opposition forces. That said, the Communist Faction is in a very bad position in terms of negotiations--Stalin's victims were legion and perhaps most unforgivably, Stalin's leadership of the war was a disaster.

Thus, in 1946-8, the Communists find themselves marginalized as the new Government agrees to accept American Aid through the Marshall Plan--an arrangement that keeps the Communists down for good, as Russia stumbles with a military dictatorship.

This.

A regime that takes over after a Nazi conquest of European Russia is most likely going to be a pretty hardline military junta, not a nice touchy feely Glasnost administration.

Putinism without even the pretence of participatory democracy.
 
Soviet was hit very hard by the war and they tried to gain control over Eastern Europe. Imperial overreach is certanly possible.
 
Something like:

Moscow Falls.

Stalin resolves to stick it out to embolden the Russian people, but instead he dies in a last ditch evacuation attempt as one Otto Skorenzy manages to shoot him dead.

The Soviet Politburo had been pressured into sticking with Stalin--they too are largely captured, killed, or left with only minor figures still alive.

Despite this disaster, the Russian People can not surrender to the German Forces--the Soviet Government may have cracked--but Germany is making a war of race and at this point the Soviet Union gives up all pretensions to communism. The quickly assembled and extremely desperate leadership will strike any deal with any nation to keep their people alive--and this means things like Alexandr Kerensky being summoned, as well as an Emergency Government--a government made of communists, nationalists, reformers and above all else, desperate people out to avoid being put on the chain by the Nazis.

By 1946, the Germany invaders have been crushed. American Nuclear Weapons have stained the strikes over Germany a blood red, and its landscape a coal black.

But what government is left? The Emergency Government was a power-sharing arrangement forced on the Soviet Union in a time of great need and included most of the opposition forces. That said, the Communist Faction is in a very bad position in terms of negotiations--Stalin's victims were legion and perhaps most unforgivably, Stalin's leadership of the war was a disaster.

Thus, in 1946-8, the Communists find themselves marginalized as the new Government agrees to accept American Aid through the Marshall Plan--an arrangement that keeps the Communists down for good, as Russia stumbles with a military dictatorship.


This would make an interesting timeline.
 
Something like:

Moscow Falls.

Stalin resolves to stick it out to embolden the Russian people, but instead he dies in a last ditch evacuation attempt as one Otto Skorenzy manages to shoot him dead.
This is an interesting idea and it had been iexplored in Russian AH as "Siberian Republic" (Nazi occupy European Russia and what's left is re-created as "Siberian Republic", but majority of population are refugees from European part of USSR, where Germans are busy cleansing and killing Slavs). However, you're under extreme danger of falling into logical trap of not distinguishing between "communists", "pragmatics" and "democrats". This Emergency Government of yours is likely stuffed with pragmatics (since they managed to hold their own against Nazi) and they are likely to keep command economy (and possibly even external decorum of "socialism") for quite some time. On the flip side, not everyone shouting "democracy" is a capable leader and not a demagogue. Putin's regime (especially in it's early years before cleptocratic tendencies took hold) is actually a good example of "pragmatic" regime, concerned with survival of the country even at expence of some external trappings of democracy.
 
I think the idea needs a bit more fleshing out. I certainly agree with the whole idea of a pragmatic government, and probably one that has given the armed forces considerable power.

The Loss of Moscow, but NOT the loss of the Soviet Union, could have some very interesting effects on the course of the war. While Zhukov himself will be shot for his failure, it is not hard to see another military man--Konev or Vasilliev--rising to the fore.

With what has to be an even worse WW2 for the Soviet Union, the question of politics remains. I'm pretty sure that Stalin's popularity would be minimal, particularly when it is politically expedient to blame him for the disastrous war--how could the Russian people view Stalin if he's purged the armed forces, cut a deal with Germany, and then presided over a defeat of this magnitude?

What this would do for certain is it would knock the Communists out of power; and after 1946 (assume V-E Day is later, owing to German Successes), there is going to be a very grim harvest to reap in terms of political alignments.

I can't help but feel like a Soviet Union /Successor State that is forced into a powersharing agreement and then has to eject factions would not be a state that could afford a Cold War against the West--a Cold War that may well be on the Vistula instead of the Oder.
 
I think the idea needs a bit more fleshing out. I certainly agree with the whole idea of a pragmatic government, and probably one that has given the armed forces considerable power.

The Loss of Moscow, but NOT the loss of the Soviet Union, could have some very interesting effects on the course of the war. While Zhukov himself will be shot for his failure, it is not hard to see another military man--Konev or Vasilliev--rising to the fore.

With what has to be an even worse WW2 for the Soviet Union, the question of politics remains. I'm pretty sure that Stalin's popularity would be minimal, particularly when it is politically expedient to blame him for the disastrous war--how could the Russian people view Stalin if he's purged the armed forces, cut a deal with Germany, and then presided over a defeat of this magnitude?

What this would do for certain is it would knock the Communists out of power; and after 1946 (assume V-E Day is later, owing to German Successes), there is going to be a very grim harvest to reap in terms of political alignments.

I can't help but feel like a Soviet Union /Successor State that is forced into a powersharing agreement and then has to eject factions would not be a state that could afford a Cold War against the West--a Cold War that may well be on the Vistula instead of the Oder.


But instead of the Allies looking from the other bank of the Odr it will be the Rhine.
 
I think the idea needs a bit more fleshing out. I certainly agree with the whole idea of a pragmatic government, and probably one that has given the armed forces considerable power.
Yes, it would be military junta, more or less. Which is natural - war is a natural environment of good militaryman and an something otherworldly for a politico.

The Loss of Moscow, but NOT the loss of the Soviet Union, could have some very interesting effects on the course of the war. While Zhukov himself will be shot for his failure, it is not hard to see another military man--Konev or Vasilliev--rising to the fore.
Vassilevsky, not Vasilliev. Besides, I'm not sure Zhukov would be executed for loss of Moscow. IOTL nobody was executed for the loss of Kiev (although Pavlov did pay the price for Belarussian Military District entering WWII with pants down). However, Zhukov could be shot by the junta for being a difficult person to work with.
I'm pretty sure that Stalin's popularity would be minimal, particularly when it is politically expedient to blame him for the disastrous war--how could the Russian people view Stalin if he's purged the armed forces, cut a deal with Germany, and then presided over a defeat of this magnitude?
Extremely possible. He would be an easy scapegoat to lay blame for all the disasters on.

What this would do for certain is it would knock the Communists out of power; and after 1946 (assume V-E Day is later, owing to German Successes), there is going to be a very grim harvest to reap in terms of political alignments.
I'm not sure about knocking Commies out. To be more precise, you need to be very careful with the definition of "Commie". Was Yeltsin, for example, a "Commie"? How about Yuschenko? Membership was mandatory for any meaningful career, so party included huge number of "pragmatics". And all members of Emergency Government will be CPSU members (everybody who's anybody were at this point). In the same time, communist system (as IOTL) would be credited for beating Nazi back. Remember, there's no such thing as "comparison between realities". People of THAT reality would look at regime which successfully resisted Nazi (something that nobody else could achieve) and it will add credibility to it. I'm sure that immediate and quite radical economic liberalization will follow The Victory, but political system is another beast for next decade or so. People should understand that sky would not fall if Communist crutch is taken out (a lot of them would believe otherwise).

I can't help but feel like a Soviet Union /Successor State that is forced into a powersharing agreement and then has to eject factions would not be a state that could afford a Cold War against the West
Frankly speaking, I don't see Cold War as something feasible. USSR wouldn't get any sphere of influence (beggars can't be choosers) and it would return to more or less status quo ante bellum - huge country heavily damaged by recent war and utterly unloved by smaller neighbours for being so huge.
 
Yes, it would be military junta, more or less. Which is natural - war is a natural environment of good militaryman and an something otherworldly for a politico.

Maybe but reading up on the Russian revolution and it's aftermath, it struck me that the military-men always loses the power struggle. That was also during wartime.
 
reading up on the Russian revolution and it's aftermath, it struck me that the military-men always loses the power struggle. That was also during wartime.
Well, I was assuming effective Soviet resistance to Nazi, as per Blue Max. And this requires rigid and capable military leadership at the helm (I'm not saying that some politicos could not participate, it is hard to distinguish between generals and many successful Soviet ministers of wartime era in their ways of thinking and acting). Power struggle of 1917-1918 vintage would lead to collapse of any meaningful resistance to Germans in winter 1941-1942. And that's IMHO a different scenario.
 
This also happened in the AH novel 'The Big One', wherein a much more ferocious Eastern Front held by both Russians and Americans along the Volga eventually led to a pro-American, non-Communist Russia after the war.
 
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