And? If people elsewhere in the world can't eat that beef, that means that it's all available for Australians (and maybe Kiwis). I believe, in fact, that was the point Rickshaw was trying to make; that Australia was super-self-sufficient in agriculture, so it wouldn't starve if global trade collapsed.
WI: The Cold War goes Hot
- Thread starter Tre' T.
- Start date
Sure, I was using that for an example.
But what about the environmental effects? The psychological effects? The likely refugee problems? The need to repurpose and build up industries and tech that were shipped in or supplied elsewhere?
marathag
Banned
Eisenhower gave pre-delegated Launch Authority to the Joint Chiefs and Commander of SAC, om worries that the Soviets could do a decapitation strike and take out much of the US leadership, preventing an immediate nuclear response
So in theory, any of them could gone full Jack D Ripper and start a strike on the USSR
All of those are basically solvable or...overrated. Refugees, for example, are somewhat controlled by the large water gap between Australia and Indonesia (to say nothing of anywhere else), and, well, there's patrolling with the ADF and sinking boats. Harsh, but given OTL Australia behavior after a nuclear war doing that would probably command virtually universal support from the population. Psychological issues might cause long-term problems, but they're not the kind of thing that will cause society to collapse or anything, they'll "just" mean a probably higher rate of suicide, higher rates of domestic abuse and alcoholism/drug abuse, and somewhat lower overall economic effectiveness. "Repurposing and building up" is well within the competency of a "crisis" government that takes command of the economy, which (looking at OTL Australian performance) is fairly likely to happen.
So, I don't think that any of the problems you list will dramatically undermine Australia. It will certainly be in a bit of a hand to mouth situation for a few decades, but they won't be suffering a general societal collapse or anything of that sort.
marathag
Banned
JFK and McNamara really thought the PALs could stop the military, they had the only keys.
Whoops.
It's not much written about, but there was a purge of sorts after the CMC, but the code 'secret' was missed for a decade
Again, there are two different ideas here. "Australia won't get away free" is not equal to "Australians will envy the dead." I feel as if you and Rickshaw think I'm holding the latter idea and only the latter idea, which I am not.
As I've said before, if I had to pick the country best suited to survive, it'd probably be Australia. I just challenge it'd be brushing off the fallout as if nothing had happened.
Honestly, the more I hear about the Cold War the more I think it's amazing we didn't find out how well Australia would do.
If the war was in the fifties, could the US come out of it ok, without a collapse of law and order? I imagine Europe is still screwed.
The US would be hurt, but probably survive. The Soviets didn't have the capabilities to reliably deliver nuclear weapons as finely tuned as the Americans did at that point, or as numerous.
Remember, that's why Sputnik freaked everyone out. If they could get that into space...
Correct. They might be able to operate from a sufficiently flat and straight section of autobahn, but they can’t operate without a paved surface.
Today Australian beef commands higher prices than it did in 1983. It is in high demand. The home price has been driven up as a consequence. If a war had broke out in 1983, we'd have been fine. We overproduced all primary commodities. We produced most of our secondary needs - we made our own automotive products, we produced most of our own agricultural needs. Australia was once ironically referred to as "the lucky country" and it still is.
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Basically, yes that was the case I was making. Northern hemisphere? They are rooted. Southern hemisphere, they are basically OK.
marathag
Banned
other than a Standard of Living that will be far lower, and will not return for a very long period
threads has the most realistic senario, regression even for survivors, to a middle ages level of living. eating rabbit almost raw, and 4 grade english levels.
marathag
Banned
depends what you call life, doesn't it?
as in just eating enough calories to avoid weight loss if not doing physical exertion?
Living, or just slowly dying? Getting to that whole bit about the living envying the dead?
I think you are making an artificial distinction. Most Australians would revert to a 1940s level of Standard of Living IMO. They wouldn't be dying on the streets from starvation. Their industries would continue and more than likely improve somewhat 'cause there isn't anyone else they can rely on, now is there? North America, Europe, Japan are all stuffed. Anything south of the Equator is going to keep on going.
Non-Strike Australia will revert to the 1940s and then collapse backwards as critical pathways in electrical, high pressure regulation, electronic and pharmaceutical collapse. In addition the dramatic rapid economic contraction combined with full employment is going to cause an instant inflationary pressure which the government will use emergency measures on. In 1960 this will mean mass internments and/or use of summary powers. In 1980 this’ll mean sectoral internments. After 1987 the economy collapses as critical production areas no longer exist to adequately serve core commodity demands (think clothing textiles and footwear, particularly textiles.)
A government of national unity will almost certainly be formed and the Governor General will authorise sweeping emergency powers. Elections are unlikely, unless third parties are effectively banned. This takes what constitutes Australian democracy back to the 1750s.
As the economy further contracts excessively productive industries that remain will be down sized to fill the needs of a population of 10-20 million. Economies of scale that don’t support the high levels of productivity historically seen in 1920 when we were part of the Empires scale.
Not mad max. But for the 95% of Australian survivors who work for a living it will see horrific regression in experienced day to day rule of law, democracy and freedom from government interference. At the standard of living level there will be a continuing series of depression on top of depression until the capital goods stock *capable of being produced* in Australia balances against the commodity needs of 10-20 million.
A government of national unity will almost certainly be formed and the Governor General will authorise sweeping emergency powers. Elections are unlikely, unless third parties are effectively banned. This takes what constitutes Australian democracy back to the 1750s.
As the economy further contracts excessively productive industries that remain will be down sized to fill the needs of a population of 10-20 million. Economies of scale that don’t support the high levels of productivity historically seen in 1920 when we were part of the Empires scale.
Not mad max. But for the 95% of Australian survivors who work for a living it will see horrific regression in experienced day to day rule of law, democracy and freedom from government interference. At the standard of living level there will be a continuing series of depression on top of depression until the capital goods stock *capable of being produced* in Australia balances against the commodity needs of 10-20 million.
As long as we're being specific...
While the possibilities and variables are numerous, consider the following. South America will escape largely intact, its dictatorships rocked but still in place after the bombs fall. Pinochet, Bignone, and Figureoua will comprise the ABC powers and likely come together as a loose bloc with the rest of South America following their lead. Central America, Mexico, and the Caribbean outside of Cuba and Puerto Rico will be largely intact (adios to both). The Bahamas will be bathed in radiation from strikes on Florida and Texas but its infrastructure will be initially intact. More likely than not the region gravitates into the ABC bloc eventually with Mexico becoming a northern Hemisphere power player with many Americans who were able to escape the worst and tourists who happened to be on vacation endong up permanent residents. Perhaps the very irradiated Bahamas absorb refugees from the former US as well.
If New Zealand is hit, it likely stays on the North Island with Wellington getting the brunt. While technologically thats hurts the country, there are enough horses and livestock that the country will survive. More likely than not they scavenge what technology they can and go into a deep isolation save for key partners like Australia. Think Bakufu Japan's foreign policy with a 1920s tech level. If Wellington survives the country will rebound more quickly with a tech base closer to 1945.
Australia loses two to seven sites, each a profound loss but even with Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, Pine Gap, Canberra, and Townsville out the country can rebound. Tech levels will vary from 1800 to 1930s but expect a warm shower to be a luxury in most of the country for two or three decades. While a rapid organization of the hinterland and smaller cities is possible, more likely there is struggle over everything from water to gas. Road gangs may form but the desire of most people to avoid outright anarchy will mean cops becomes a lot more powerful in real-world terms, especially in the larger cities that survive. Life here will be hard and deadly but then in a land where seemingly everything wants to kill you...
Hawaii loses Oahu and maybe Nihau/Kauai as well, but it will survive as a very unique culture clash of Anglos and locals who have to work together to survive. If they don't they almost all perish.
Europe is a graveyard by and large, Switzerland becomes the new Shangri-La but likely isolates itself quickly from the outside. Perhaps surrounding areas with something to offer join in but they will not be forgiving to those who try to intrude on Fortress Alpine, otherwise Iberia, southern France, and parts of Italy fare better than the rest. Which is to say more than 1/4 of the prewar population may survive in the 'lucky' areas. This is a continent where the living may envy the dead, especially in Germany, european Russia, and the southern UK.
Japan is much the same way with Hokkaido, southern Kyushu, and Shikoku faring better than the mainland. Expect a new Bakufu equivalent with a lot of anti-American and anti-Soviet sentiment. They will survive and carry on but at a terrible cost, perhaps with subways repurposed into domiciles in some areas.
Siberia, Canada, and Alaska are no-mans-lands with a few enclaves of civilziation against a backdrop of overwhelming wilderness and seemingly incalculabke devastation. Radiation will linger but few people will be alive to see its effects. At whichever Soviet cities survive expect a government to begin pulling together as soon as they are able, but with very limited success for several years.
China is hard to predict, they may survive largely intact or the Russians may figure to take them out lest they push into Soviet territory. Hard to predict.
India and Pakistan initially survive with few relative casualties but eventually neutralize each other as potential powers due to a war. Pakistan loses but India doesn't win, instead shattering into a dozen states that talk reunification as they scheme to be the last one standing. No one wins but everyone loses.
Israel and the Middle East are simply gone, the only victors are the vultures, fungi, and carrion eaters. Survivors here are few, well-armed, and have no qualms about continuing ancient feuds.
Southern Africa degenerates into racial violence and may crack down or disintegrate. But the RSA has nuclear weapons and delivery systems. Expect civil war in a nation that might otherwise have led recovery efforts worldwide. North Africa is toast, and Nigeria emerges as a power in its own right. Oil becomes key to technology and even more valuable...eventually.
While the possibilities and variables are numerous, consider the following. South America will escape largely intact, its dictatorships rocked but still in place after the bombs fall. Pinochet, Bignone, and Figureoua will comprise the ABC powers and likely come together as a loose bloc with the rest of South America following their lead. Central America, Mexico, and the Caribbean outside of Cuba and Puerto Rico will be largely intact (adios to both). The Bahamas will be bathed in radiation from strikes on Florida and Texas but its infrastructure will be initially intact. More likely than not the region gravitates into the ABC bloc eventually with Mexico becoming a northern Hemisphere power player with many Americans who were able to escape the worst and tourists who happened to be on vacation endong up permanent residents. Perhaps the very irradiated Bahamas absorb refugees from the former US as well.
If New Zealand is hit, it likely stays on the North Island with Wellington getting the brunt. While technologically thats hurts the country, there are enough horses and livestock that the country will survive. More likely than not they scavenge what technology they can and go into a deep isolation save for key partners like Australia. Think Bakufu Japan's foreign policy with a 1920s tech level. If Wellington survives the country will rebound more quickly with a tech base closer to 1945.
Australia loses two to seven sites, each a profound loss but even with Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, Pine Gap, Canberra, and Townsville out the country can rebound. Tech levels will vary from 1800 to 1930s but expect a warm shower to be a luxury in most of the country for two or three decades. While a rapid organization of the hinterland and smaller cities is possible, more likely there is struggle over everything from water to gas. Road gangs may form but the desire of most people to avoid outright anarchy will mean cops becomes a lot more powerful in real-world terms, especially in the larger cities that survive. Life here will be hard and deadly but then in a land where seemingly everything wants to kill you...
Hawaii loses Oahu and maybe Nihau/Kauai as well, but it will survive as a very unique culture clash of Anglos and locals who have to work together to survive. If they don't they almost all perish.
Europe is a graveyard by and large, Switzerland becomes the new Shangri-La but likely isolates itself quickly from the outside. Perhaps surrounding areas with something to offer join in but they will not be forgiving to those who try to intrude on Fortress Alpine, otherwise Iberia, southern France, and parts of Italy fare better than the rest. Which is to say more than 1/4 of the prewar population may survive in the 'lucky' areas. This is a continent where the living may envy the dead, especially in Germany, european Russia, and the southern UK.
Japan is much the same way with Hokkaido, southern Kyushu, and Shikoku faring better than the mainland. Expect a new Bakufu equivalent with a lot of anti-American and anti-Soviet sentiment. They will survive and carry on but at a terrible cost, perhaps with subways repurposed into domiciles in some areas.
Siberia, Canada, and Alaska are no-mans-lands with a few enclaves of civilziation against a backdrop of overwhelming wilderness and seemingly incalculabke devastation. Radiation will linger but few people will be alive to see its effects. At whichever Soviet cities survive expect a government to begin pulling together as soon as they are able, but with very limited success for several years.
China is hard to predict, they may survive largely intact or the Russians may figure to take them out lest they push into Soviet territory. Hard to predict.
India and Pakistan initially survive with few relative casualties but eventually neutralize each other as potential powers due to a war. Pakistan loses but India doesn't win, instead shattering into a dozen states that talk reunification as they scheme to be the last one standing. No one wins but everyone loses.
Israel and the Middle East are simply gone, the only victors are the vultures, fungi, and carrion eaters. Survivors here are few, well-armed, and have no qualms about continuing ancient feuds.
Southern Africa degenerates into racial violence and may crack down or disintegrate. But the RSA has nuclear weapons and delivery systems. Expect civil war in a nation that might otherwise have led recovery efforts worldwide. North Africa is toast, and Nigeria emerges as a power in its own right. Oil becomes key to technology and even more valuable...eventually.