WI: The Chongzhen Emperor escapes?

This. Overall, I would humbly however perhaps say, one half of the Southern Ming forces are bandits and mercenaries, the other half are loyal but factionalist; for the former, there are the four regional guardian generals except Huang- for the latter, one need just look at the utter mess of the rival courts. I wouldn’t perhaps say they thought of themselves as invincible considering there were some seesaw defections from side to side, but many certainly thought it was the better choice, and I believe as time went on all those overall defections produced a material as well as psychological domino-effect.

Even then though, Zheng’s attack on Nanjing failed due to a bunch of factors, some related to loyalty, some not. In my humble opinion, people followed the Qing because they felt the new dynasty brought back stability, played by the dynastical-ideological rules- with some major exceptions, obviously- and because it won. Knock out one of the legs of the chair, they can fix it- the pigtail order rebellions were defeated, and people thought the Qing really held the mandate by the time Zheng’s besieging Nanjing. Knock out two, and the Qing are struggling a bit more- if they are defeated in the wake of the pigtail rebellions, people will reconsider who’s really supposed to be emperor. Here, three legs are knocked out- there’s a unified Southern Ming government in Nanjing, the Qing have been defeated, preferably in the wake of the pigtail order’s unrest, which is enough to upend all the effort they’ve made so far to play by the dynastical-ideological rules. The only leg left now is Manchu military ability, and in my humble opinion, that doesn’t really look like enough to take down this Southern Ming.
I think it’s worthwhile to note that while Gao Jie was a scumbag,he did genuinely try to fight the Manchus,refusing numerous attempts by the Manchus to have him switch sides and died due to being betrayed by a turncoat.
 
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Interesting-reading this, he sounds like someone who could develop his thought into a kind of dialectical or historical approach(i.e. that pure morality is understood as a product of the conflict or relationship between individual understanding of morality and traditional understanding of morality) or a development by which individuals rediscover their understanding of pure morality only for it to over time ossify as it shifts from a discovery to tradition, necessitating eventually a fresh re-evaluation of moral understanding.

Well, it’ll be a bit difficult for him to personally develop his ideas, since he ended up committing suicide in prison in 1602, however, considering the times there’s definitely a lot of potential for someone to be inspired and develop these ideas further into, as you said, a dialectical or historical approach of morality. Of the two possible developments suggested, the first of pure morality as a product of the conflict or relationship between individual and traditional understandings of morality, is very interesting but perhaps a little bit too iconoclastic to be tolerated by the scholar-officials; however, the second of individuals rediscovering their understanding of pure morality only for it to ossify over time as it shifts from discovery to ‘tradition’, necessitating eventually a fresh re-evaluation of moral understanding, feels a bit more in line with his thought (as far as I understand him, if anyone feels I’m wrong please correct me), reconcilable with most other Confucian thought, not to mention also being open to reforms within that.

I think it’s worthwhile to note that while Gao Jie was a scumbag,he did genuinely try to fight the Manchus,refusing numerous attempts by the Manchus to have him switch sides and died due to being betrayed by a turncoat.

Darn it, true. Even though he attacked Huang and kind of brought on Xu Dingguo’s wrath on himself, his untrustworthiness was internal, not external like that of the two Liu, and the man really did stay to the end (and as you mentioned, Xu’s dastardly betrayal a few days after, which darns Xu anyways).
 
That would be a fascinating research project.

If I ever do write a vignette, may I incorporate and try and further develop the ideas you so well suggested? Of course I’d give you full credit for such wonderful ideas; though I fully understand if you wish not.
 
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