WI: The Chinese First Phase Offensive in Korea Fails

If UN forces, by the end of the war, are able to hold all of Korea and are at the Yalu, the peace talks are essential to end the war. China will continue to attack if they feel the US could launch an attack to restablisht he KMT in China.

With a united, "democratic" Korea achieved, the US might agree to a situation where only a token sea/air based in the south (say at Pusan), but there are no permanent troops, certainly nothing near the border. Or, the US might even accept Korea to be like an "Asian Austria" - friendly, but neutral and outside any military alliance, but with an implied protectorate in case of attack.

Stalin would likely accept such a scenario, and would probably convince Mao to accede.

A more interesting question is what happens if the UN holds the line north of the 38th parallel (perhaps even north of Pyongyang), but is unable to push Chinese troops over the Yalu. Most likely, the war ends in another stalement with a continued North Korea state, but one much smaller than we have now. That North Korean state will not have anywhere near the resources the real one has. It will require a lot more subsidies during the Cold War, and may not have enough resources to pursue a nuclear program afterwards.
 

Rebel

Banned
Rebel: "Those Jets" prevented the PVA force from being fried/bombed into meat before they got to engage the US Army. Without "Mig Ally" and hundreds of "Volunteer" Soviet pilots the USAF could have bombed the PVA force night and day, especially at strategic choke points around the Yalu River. Not that Mao would have fully appreciated this, but the Chinese intervention would have amounted to nothing were it not for the cheaper, yet extremely effective Soviet contribution of MiG-15s.

Oh yes, I certainly understand that. But as you said, Mao probably wouldn't.

So, I'm seeing that in general people agree with the idea that the US could do much better in the war. The idea of how much better seems to be the area of conflict. I'd like to say that the US could make it to the yalu and still negotiate an end to the war, but I recognize that others here know far more than me.

So, to postulate a new question, how far north could the US go while still being able to negotiate with the Chinese? Will there be another war, or will the Chinese stay out of things for a couple of decades? Will the Sino-Soviet still happen? And if the US can't negotiate with the Chinese (Say the US is on the Yalu) how will things work out? The Chinese can't keep attacking forever, the Politiburo won't be happy if things turn against them, and Stalin will get irritated if they keep the thing going after North Korea is done.
 
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