WI The Central Powers won the First World War?

Alpha Trion

In my humble opinion, there are two basic ways Germany could have handled Austria-Hungary in TTL.

1) Germany could let Austria-Hungary crumble in a civil war and absorb both Austria and Bohemia into the Reich. Germany could then build an economic/military alliance with Hungary. Assuming that the regime in Hungary is able to remain in power (and considering the various minorities in Hungary that is no guarantee), then Germany should be able to form some sort of economic union/military alliance with Hungary and Bulgaria. A downside of this plan for Germany whether or not Hungary would be as loyal a client state as the Hapsburgs were in OTL.

2) Germany could maintain the Hapsburgs’ regime in Austria-Hungary. While it is true Germany might have to defeat the Hungarians in the event of a civil war, the prospect of having a single loyal client state would be worth the military investment. Keep in mind that in TTL, Germany is already going to have to deal with a lot of new regimes (Poland, Ukraine, Finland, and Lithuania) in the remnants of the Russian Empire. In terms of meeting German foreign policy goals, the Hapsburgs would most likely be the reliable regime in Europe.
 

Mikestone8

PhoenicianLegacy said:
While not collapsing completely, Austria-Hungary will survive albeit both sides of the dual monarchy divorcing and going their own paths and keeping their traditional lands instead of dividing further.
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That would leave a really weirdly shaped Austria - a bit like some of the zanier Congressional districts that I've seen.

But whatever they might say after the third drink, what exactly is in it for the Magyars? If they secede, geography almost guarantees that Galicia will follow - which leaves the rump Austria majority-German, and likely to be absorbed into the Reich. So instead of Austria, Hungary is now paired with a jumbo-sized Germany - a far more unequal partnership than with Austria. What's the point?
 
Vingilótë

Vingilótë

Mikestone8 said:
That would leave a really weirdly shaped Austria - a bit like some of the zanier Congressional districts that I've seen.

But whatever they might say after the third drink, what exactly is in it for the Magyars? If they secede, geography almost guarantees that Galicia will follow - which leaves the rump Austria majority-German, and likely to be absorbed into the Reich. So instead of Austria, Hungary is now paired with a jumbo-sized Germany - a far more unequal partnership than with Austria. What's the point?
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In this case, even more formal independence, and full sovereignty. The full question is whether all of this is worth it (seeing as to how the Hungarians had most of what constituted independence under the Dual Monarchy, and all of the protection), and furthermore, whether Hungary will or will not simply opt to 'go its own way,' by attempting to wriggle away from Germany.
 

Mikestone8

Zmflavius said:
In this case, even more formal independence, and full sovereignty. The full question is whether all of this is worth it (seeing as to how the Hungarians had most of what constituted independence under the Dual Monarchy, and all of the protection), and furthermore, whether Hungary will or will not simply opt to 'go its own way,' by attempting to wriggle away from Germany.
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It will be taking a frightful risk if it does.

If the Magyars defy Germany, what is to stop the Germans (who, remember, have won the Great War and pretty much dominate Continental Europe) from seeking reconciliation with Serbs, Croats and Rumanians at Hungary's expense, ie something like Trianon but imposed by Germany instead of by the Allies?

After all, none of those peoples has any direct quarrel with Germany - only with A/H. All things considered, my guess is that the Germans would prefer to keep A/H in being, but if the Magyars just stubbornly insist on seceding from it, why should the Germans object to Hungary's minorities seceding in their turn?
 
machine3589

machine3589

PhoenicianLegacy said:
Not necessarily for reference, but rather to get ideas from.
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ALL of the ideas mentioned in that thread have, in one way or another, been discussed on the X number of threads we have had here on the subject of a CP victory in WWI.

Besides, if you say "use this as reference" makes it look like you think things mentioned there are more valid than everything said here.
 

PhoenicianLegacy

Banned
Another idea I have is that maybe during the interwar years, Germany and Japan could made an agreement to divide China under each's own influence.

Germany probably would've wanted to avoid another war so soon, and maybe it would've attempted to strengthen ties with Japan, especially since they both hated Russia.
 

NothingNow

Banned
PhoenicianLegacy said:
Another idea I have is that maybe during the interwar years, Germany and Japan could made an agreement to divide China under each's own influence.
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Germany has no real interest in China though, outside of it's role as a market, and in regards to their concessions, including the Bund, and Tsingtao. As long as they can do business in China, and do it cheaply, they honestly couldn't give a fuck who ran the place.

As it is, they'd have to pay to get back Tsingtao and what became the South Pacific Mandate anyway.

Unless GB never entered the war, in which case, Germany and Japan have just spent the last few years having a jolly old time in the pacific collecting colonies and driving the Russians up the Trans-Siberian.
 

PhoenicianLegacy

Banned
NothingNow said:
Germany has no real interest in China though, outside of it's role as a market, and in regards to their concessions, including the Bund, and Tsingtao. As long as they can do business in China, and do it cheaply, they honestly couldn't give a fuck who ran the place.

As it is, they'd have to pay to get back Tsingtao and what became the South Pacific Mandate anyway.

Unless GB never entered the war, in which case, Germany and Japan have just spent the last few years having a jolly old time in the pacific collecting colonies and driving the Russians up the Trans-Siberian.
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Germany still had several ports in China that it fought to protect during the war in which they lost to Japan in the end. They obviously had some interest.
 
Vingilótë

Vingilótë

PhoenicianLegacy said:
Germany still had several ports in China that it fought to protect during the war in which they lost to Japan in the end. They obviously had some interest.
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(Those were Tsingtao, and the Jiaozhou bay concession, which NothingNow mentioned)

I think that the only response Germany would get wrt Micronesia would be a straight 'piss off' from the world's third biggest naval power. I doubt Germany would care; the islands are basically worthless to Germany (even if, IIRC, they were one of the few German colonies to turn a profit), but valuable enough to Japan that she would probably refuse to let go of them. Maybe Germany could demand compensation.

Tsingtao and Jiaozhou Bay is another question entirely; Japan would like to have them, but they're not the be all and end all of things. China, however, really wants her lands returned to her myself.

If Germany wants to purchase cheap goodwill, she can formally sign them over to one or the other in the peace treaty. Enforcement not in favor of Japan would be a bitch, but that boosts Germany's standing in China's eyes.

Or she can demand back a concession whose purpose is rapidly becoming more obsolescent by the day, at the same time being met by a blunt refusal to comply by Japan, and shooting away any Chinese goodwill they might have had at the same time.
 
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NothingNow

Banned
Zmflavius said:
I think that the only response Germany would get wrt Micronesia would be a straight 'piss off' from the world's third biggest naval power.
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Not just the third largest Naval, but the power with what was man for man, the absolute best navy on the Planet.

That also happens to be on the other side of the world from the High Seas Fleet, (which wasn't built to handle operations in the tropics anyway.)

They could probably get Nauru, New Guinea and German Samoa back from the Commonwealth if they wanted, but they'll be getting jack-shit from Japan, who is likely going to shake down the other allied powers as it is, since they've got war loans to collect on (and could really use a shiny new Slice of Borneo or Indochina.)
 

Generaloberst

Banned
PhoenicianLegacy said:
Look what I've found guys :

http://www.reddit.com/r/HistoricalWhatIf/comments/18wuzo/what_if_the_central_powers_had_won_wwi/

Why not use this for reference?
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Germany will not be gaining colonies anywhere. In a CP victory, they'd be in no position to barter for more. They'd probably have to fight tooth and tail to keep their Asian colonies, if they even wanted them regardless. They might retain the African colonies and maybe get some token concessions out of Britain and Belgium (ie, two villages and some dirt) but nothing extravagant.
 

elkarlo

Banned
Generaloberst said:
Germany will not be gaining colonies anywhere. In a CP victory, they'd be in no position to barter for more. They'd probably have to fight tooth and tail to keep their Asian colonies, if they even wanted them regardless. They might retain the African colonies and maybe get some token concessions out of Britain and Belgium (ie, two villages and some dirt) but nothing extravagant.
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They didn't lose Tanzania yet. So that would be on the table
 

Riain

The disposition of colonies won't have a hell of a lot to do with who holds what in Africa and Asia, they are possessions of European powers who will have a lot of problems at home. Will Belgium accept German occupation as the price of keeping the Congo, will France accept annexation of more border areas when they can trade away parts of Africa, will Britain be happy to have the HSF parked in Ostend in order to keep South West Africa?
 

PhoenicianLegacy

Banned
Loosing all those territories on the western front (eg. Finland, Baltic states, Poland) to Germany who carves them out as their own satellite states would be like loosing a right arm for Russia.

That would mean conditions of Stalin's rule would've been even worse.
 
Glen

Glen

Moderator
Your finished timelines and scenarios version of this timeline needed serious editing (about a quarter of it was repeated twice in the post) and a link to the discussion. Please rewrite and post in appropriate format with link if you wish it to be included in finished timelines and scenarios.
 

PhoenicianLegacy

Banned
Glen said:
Your finished timelines and scenarios version of this timeline needed serious editing (about a quarter of it was repeated twice in the post) and a link to the discussion. Please rewrite and post in appropriate format with link if you wish it to be included in finished timelines and scenarios.
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Will do. ;)
 

PhoenicianLegacy

Banned
Just one more thing.

Assuming the Ottoman Empire survives after WWI and obtains the Middle eastern Oil wealth, that would mean Europe would not carve out all those artificial borders such as Iraq, Syria, Jordan ect.

That would mean the Ottomans would control The Levant, Iraq, the Gulf states and Hejaz at least until the end of WWII, assuming their is an ATL equivalent.

Afterwards, let's assume the Ottoman Empire grants those territories independence as a general wave of decolonialism affects this timeline akin to ours. But unlike our timeline, the local tribes/ethnic groups carve out the borders as they desire in both the Arabian peninsula, Levant and Mesopotamia. What Principals will would be used to divide up the land?

For one thing, I believe their will be no Saudi Arabia or Saudi Dynasty.
 
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