WI The Central Powers won the First World War?

[Mikestone8]

There is, incidentally, a third possibility besides survival and disintegration.

Suppose there is a German-instigated coup in Vienna. The Habsburgs are deposed and Kaiser Wilhelm is proclaimed Emperor. Budapest is caught flat-footed but the arrival of a German army Corps brings them to see the light. Austria and Hungary retain separate Parliaments, but steps are put in hand to formally amalgamate the two armies - which by late 1916 are already partially "amalgamated" by the seconding of large numbers of German NCOs and junior officers.

James W Gerard (US Ambassador in Berlin) reported widespread rumours of such a plot to take effect on the death of Franz Josef. In the event nothing happened, whether because the whole thing was scuttlebutt or because FJs death came so suddenly that everyone was caught off guard.

Makes the Anschluss look sick.

 

[machine3589]

In all honesty, the breakup of Austria-Hungary is more likely than not if the war lasts this long, but not because everyone will spontaneousely start rebellions everywhere more than three people feel slighted - empires don`t fall apart after victorious wars, no matter how closely fought.

The problem will come when someone brings up the question of the Ausgleich. After that, there is a whole range of questions that could be translated into the straw that would brake the camel`s back, as the Hungarians basically wanted their own state within a sate (nevermind the fact that they barely make a majority within that state IF you don`t count Croatia-Slavonia). I can easily see Austria-Hungary falling apart after the war, but ten to fifteen years after, not immediately after.

As for the Ottomans... even if they do survive, their fall will come sooner as by this point IIRC they have lost Iraq and the majority of the Levant to the British (and Indian, Australian, African, etc.) forces. Even if the regime survives, what they have left is not enough to turn them into an alt-Saudi Arabia.

 

[anotherlurker]

As for the Ottomans... even if they do survive, their fall will come sooner as by this point IIRC they have lost Iraq and the majority of the Levant to the British (and Indian, Australian, African, etc.) forces. Even if the regime survives, what they have left is not enough to turn them into an alt-Saudi Arabia.

why would the british keep all that? have the ottos surrendered and signed it away? germany isnt going to annex 90% of belgium and a good portion of north france, so why should the british? without foreign support the arab nationalist uprising does exactly what it did in real life - go nowhere.

 

[lukedalton]

IOW the CPs win the war, pure and simple, at least on the Continent, before the AEF gets a chance to do anything about it. There's no mention of a compromise peace.

It's implied, because by that time the German are on the last leg regarding supply, morale and endurance regarding the war as for this offensive they had used all what they have, and if Berlin decide to play the hard stance and try to demand to the Entente the usual treaty that is spelled out in the CP victory scenario, the Wallies can simply wait the arrival of the american troops. The entire reasoning of the Spring Offensive was to 'force' the Entente to the negotiating table for a compromise peace, the moment for the Septemberprogram is long gone and frankly A-H just hope for a white peace so to try to put her piece together

Iirc the German Army's normal peacetime strength is around 700,000, and they won't need more than a fraction of that to blow away a few barricades in Prague, Budapest and maybe one or two other places.

The army will be tired,not very well supplied and full of men who want to back home plus it will be needed on the rest of the B-L aquisition not counting quell the political unrest at home, OTL the Entente had difficulty even on fighting on the former OTttoman and Russian Empire and various other place due to the fatigue of war and they were even in better shape than late Germany army.

And stationing the troops in a foreign country, with presumably the right to requisition supplies, may well cost less than maintaining them at home.

Oh and this will really help in making friends and influence people around.

In any case how long would it need to continue? The Russians intervened in 1849 to help Austria, but once Kossuth was scotched, they didn't need to remain. The Austrians were able to look after themselves thereafter. Would it be any different following a similar German intervention in say 1919?

Because the 48's revolution are basically a joke compared to the sheer destruction both on the phisical and social level that WWI caused, not counting the full blow nationalism and the fact that the autocratic system of governance of the A-H was on the last leg and the ruling class discredited and the coming of fascism and communism.

 

[Rascallite]

Snowden takes over UK,Pivert takes over france,Italy split into two,Boghd Khan on Mongolia,Mittleeuropa,National france...

I've seen this before...

 

[machine3589]

why would the british keep all that?

Why wouldn`t they?

have the ottos surrendered and signed it away?

The "ottos" (which sounds more like a German folk group than anything else ) have lost these territories by virtue of military conquest. They have the option of negotiating the return of these territories from the British, and with no real bargaining chips to negotiate the return.

germany isnt going to annex 90% of belgium and a good portion of north france, so why should the british?

Very poor comparison. The idea people have behind German annexations in the west is direct incorporatrion into Germany proper, while the British will do the exact same thing they did in the Middle East IOTL, except insted of the "mandate system" (which requires the formation of the LoN), they might just name them "colonies" and end it there.

without foreign support the arab nationalist uprising does exactly what it did in real life - go nowhere.

And the British won`t support them because?

 

[Mikestone8]

It's implied, because by that time the German are on the last leg regarding supply, morale and endurance regarding the war as for this offensive they had used all what they have, and if Berlin decide to play the hard stance and try to demand to the Entente the usual treaty that is spelled out in the CP victory scenario, the Wallies can simply wait the arrival of the american troops.

Arrival where? With France and Italy defeated, there isn't anywhere for them to land, and a "D-Day" type invasion of Europe is impossible with WW1 technology.

In any case, a scenario where France and Italy don't fall renders this whole thread ASB. If they haven't collapsed, they'll just "hang in" while more and more American troops arrive, the tide turns and the Entente wins a complete victory, much as OTL.

Quite simply, if France and Italy collapse you get a total victory (on the Continent at least) for the CP. If they don't, you get a total victory for the Entente, with only minor differences from OTL. What you don't get, either way, is any kind of stalemate. Whatever may or may not have been true earlier in the war, by 1918 it's "all or nothing" for both sides.

The army will be tired,not very well supplied and full of men who want to back home plus it will be needed on the rest of the B-L aquisition not counting quell the political unrest at home, OTL the Entente had difficulty even on fighting on the former OTttoman and Russian Empire and various other place due to the fatigue of war and they were even in better shape than late Germany army.

Tired or not, Germany will still maintain its normal peacetime military establishment, which has to be stationed somewhere. And A/H is a next door neighbour where the German language is widely understood - not a bad posting.

And OTL, the German Freikorps - not even the regular army, just a handful of self-appointed paramilitaries - were getting the better of it in 1919 on the Polish borders and in the Baltic lands until ordered out by an ultimatum from Marshal Foch. If a defeated (and still blockaded) Germany could manage that much, a victorious one should have no trouble mopping up some Czech and Hungarian rebel bands.

Because the 48's revolution are basically a joke compared to the sheer destruction both on the phisical and social level that WWI caused, not counting the full blow nationalism and the fact that the autocratic system of governance of the A-H was on the last leg and the ruling class discredited and the coming of fascism and communism.

Not that much of a joke. In 1849 Hungary had a regular army of its own, which it wouldn't have in this situation. And the basic situation remains the same, with a whole conglomeration of ethnic groups, many of whom hate each others' guts, and who can be played off against each other in 1919 (or whenever) just as in 1849 (The Austrians had put down the Cattaro Mutiny in early 1918 by precisely such means). And the Germans can supply at least as much help in the later year as the Russians did in the earlier.

 

[Alpha Trion]

Why do people always assume that Germany would allow Austria-Hungary to fall apart in a Central Powers victory TL? Wouldn’t it make sense for Germany to maintain the Habsburgs in power rather than dealing with the various nations that would form if Austria-Hungary dissolved? People tend to forget how much the economy of Austria-Hungary was growing before World War I. Germany would certainly want to expand their interests in Central Europe and Austria-Hungary could definitely aid their expansion. Besides with the military commitments Germany would have in the former Russian Empire, they would still find Austria-Hungary to be a valuable client state.

 

[lukedalton]

Why do people always assume that Germany would allow Austria-Hungary to fall apart in a Central Powers victory TL? Wouldn’t it make sense for Germany to maintain the Habsburgs in power rather than dealing with the various nations that would form if Austria-Hungary dissolved? People tend to forget how much the economy of Austria-Hungary was growing before World War I. Germany would certainly want to expand their interests in Central Europe and Austria-Hungary could definitely aid their expansion. Besides with the military commitments Germany would have in the former Russian Empire, they would still find Austria-Hungary to be a valuable client state.

Because it will be long and thankless work, with Germany having her internal problem both social and economic so much depend on how much A-H can be usefull to Germany and what's the cost aka aid will not be eternal or even free.

 

[Alpha Trion]

Because it will be long and thankless work, with Germany having her internal problem both social and economic so much depend on how much A-H can be usefull to Germany and what's the cost aka aid will not be eternal or even free.

In TTL, Germany does not have to worry about Great Britain and France interfering in a potential civil war in Austria-Hungary. I find it hard to believe that a Germany strong enough to win WWI, would not be strong enough to help the Habsburgs maintain their regime. The nationalities in Austria-Hungary always wanted independence but without the aid of another country, I do not see them winning a civil war.

 

[Vingilótë]

In TTL, Germany does not have to worry about Great Britain and France interfering in a potential civil war in Austria-Hungary. I find it hard to believe that a Germany strong enough to win WWI, would not be strong enough to help the Habsburgs maintain their regime. The nationalities in Austria-Hungary always wanted independence but without the aid of another country, I do not see them winning a civil war.

I think what he means is that the cost of maintaining several allied states will be less than maintaining A-H.

 

[lukedalton]

In TTL, Germany does not have to worry about Great Britain and France interfering in a potential civil war in Austria-Hungary. I find it hard to believe that a Germany strong enough to win WWI, would not be strong enough to help the Habsburgs maintain their regime. The nationalities in Austria-Hungary always wanted independence but without the aid of another country, I do not see them winning a civil war.

Being strong enough to win something like WWI don't mean having the force and the will to continue the job for long more after.

 

[PhoenicianLegacy]

Even after the war, a streak of authoritarianism would come across Germany anyway. It had a weak constitution even before the war.

Instead of trying to right the wrongs of Germany's hardships imposed on it by the Entente, Ultra-nationalists would've felt democracy was not acting fast enough to capitalize on the gains of victory. Overall, the the notions of liberal democracy in Europe would've been defeated in favor of German-style aristocracy, which would soon become the norm afterwards.

 

[Vingilótë]

Even after the war, a streak of authoritarianism would come across Germany anyway. It had a weak constitution even before the war.

Instead of trying to right the wrongs of Germany's hardships imposed on it by the Entente, Ultra-nationalists would've felt democracy was not acting fast enough to capitalize on the gains of victory. Overall, the the notions of liberal democracy in Europe would've been defeated in favor of German-style aristocracy, which would soon become the norm afterwards.

Also rather pessimistic in my opinion. You realize, that even before the war ended; Germany was rapidly moving in the direction of further reform; and without defeat to discredit liberal and leftist forces; a more liberal constitutional monarchy was practically a given, as the reward for four years of faithful service.

 

[PhoenicianLegacy]

Also rather pessimistic in my opinion. You realize, that even before the war ended; Germany was rapidly moving in the direction of further reform; and without defeat to discredit liberal and leftist forces; a more liberal constitutional monarchy was practically a given, as the reward for four years of faithful service.

That could've been the case, at least until the great depression.

 

[Glenn239]

I think what he means is that the cost of maintaining several allied states will be less than maintaining A-H.

Germany breaks up Austria after fighting a world war to protect it?

 

[Vingilótë]

That could've been the case, at least until the great depression.

Germany breaks up Austria after fighting a world war to protect it?

Sounds dumb; but honoring its Russian alliance didn't stop France from adopting a policy by the end of the war to contain her, to use another example. Basically, policy changes when the ground situation changes.

 

[PhoenicianLegacy]

Germany breaks up Austria after fighting a world war to protect it?

While not collapsing completely, Austria-Hungary will survive albeit both sides of the dual monarchy divorcing and going their own paths and keeping their traditional lands instead of dividing further.

 

[Glenn239]

Sounds dumb; but honoring its Russian alliance didn't stop France from adopting a policy by the end of the war to contain her, to use another example. Basically, policy changes when the ground situation changes.

The Russian regime changed and Russia dropped out of the war having violated its committments under the September Declaration of 1914. After the war, France was part of the coalition that invaded Russia to try and reestablish the regime.

Fischer did a study of German war aims back in the 1960's. I recall some fairly expansive thinking, but I can't recall the Germans considering breaking up Austria-Hungary.

 

[Vingilótë]

The Russian regime changed and Russia dropped out of the war having violated its committments under the September Declaration of 1914. After the war, France was part of the coalition that invaded Russia to try and reestablish the regime.

Fischer did a study of German war aims back in the 1960's. I recall some fairly expansive thinking, but I can't recall the Germans considering breaking up Austria-Hungary.

It's quite probable, thinking about it, that it wouldn't have happened. I mean, it's an incredibly common trope on this site, but I think the personal fantasies of Germanophiles (speaking as one myself) probably play into it more than a little.