WI The Central Powers won the First World War?

[PhoenicianLegacy]

It's likely that Hitler could've actually gained himself a job as a governor to one of Germany's newly acquired colonies rather than trying to attempt a coup in 1922.

However, like OTL Germany would've still faced a wave of radical nationalists (not quite as bad as the Nazis) taking seat, victory or no victory. Since Germany had a weak constitution even before the war, they would've felt that democracy was not acting fast enough to capitalize on Germany's post-war jockeying.

Just trying to breath new life into the thread before it's too late.

 

[Zaius]

Not counting that at least the Soviet had a proper ideology behind they conquest, something that they can spread, something that at least in some sense will justify it even in the eyes of the world and the population of the 'puppetized' nations.
Post WWI Germany? None of the above and as said earlier unlike the Soviet post war they will have their internal political problem (not counting that mess that is now the A-H empire...a wholly owed subsidiary of the German Empire)

And another thing.

A large segment of Mitteleuropa will be part of greater Hungary, greater Bulgaria, and (in a Brest-Litovsk scenario) a large Ukraine and mega-Lithuania. Sufficient promotion of Lithuanian, Ukrainian,etc nationalism won't directly hurt Germany due to the lack of territorial conflicts They and Germany aren't really going to have any territorial conflicts, but will have a mutual interest in keeping "troublesome" nations like Poles or Serbs down. This might contribute to Ukraine, Lithuania, Hungary, Bulgaria tending to support Germany on their own, potentially (economic exploitation still won't endear Germany to anybody) relieving it of much of the burden of keeping its puppets in line.

Hmm. On second thought, out of the four countries I mentioned, Lithuania might be a bad example. If it stretches from Siaulai and Panzevys to Bialystok and the vicinity of Brest-Litovsk it could easily turn into a pseudo-Yugoslavia. "Fortunately" for the argument I am making, it would still be much smaller then the other three.

Even if Russia did go Soviet, things would went differently if the victorious Germany carved out new states from its western borders as satellite states, meaning it would've been weaker.

Assuming Germany does carve out as much as it did in OTL Brest-Litovsk, which isn't universally mandated.

 

[PhoenicianLegacy]

Many sources I've read elsewhere shift from suggesting that the Ottomans would've collapsed anyway, or reached their former height at most (a bit of a far stretch).

I prefer to think that the Ottoman Empire's fate would've been somewhere in between.

 

[Orville_third]

I could see the US shifting more to focusing on their hemisphere. Of course, Britain might be trying to shift its influence there to protect its colonies. France too.
And there is the issue of Irish independence.

 

[Dustin]

Many sources I've read elsewhere shift from suggesting that the Ottomans would've collapsed anyway, or reached their former height at most (a bit of a far stretch).

I prefer to think that the Ottoman Empire's fate would've been somewhere in between.

I personally think that the Ottomans would have stayed at their 1914 borders but eventually developed into a regional-great power because of the oil in Iraq and already emerging Ottoman identity.

 

[Avskygod0]

Austria-Hungary would collapse or would need to make a lot of autonomous kingdoms(turning into Austria-Hungary-Croatia-Serbia etc etc) World War 2 would simply be a awful shit-slinging that results in France, Russia, UK and their allies to win and Germany is gain a bunch of tiny countries

 

[Mikestone8]

Austria-Hungary would collapse or would need to make a lot of autonomous kingdoms(turning into Austria-Hungary-Croatia-Serbia etc etc)

Why should it collapse?

With a degree of German propping it fought on till October 1918, when the collapse of the Macedonian front made its borders indefensible. Before the war about the worst it had to deal with was some IRA-style terrorism by Bosnian Serbs, and Reichsrat deputies occasionally throwing inkpots at the Speaker - not very decorous but hardly the sort of thing that brings down empires. If it's still on its feet when peacetime returns, there's no particular reason for it to collapse.

Even if it does, in a CP wins scenario, the likeliest form for this to take would be a separate Hungary (still allied to Germany) with the bulk of the Austrian half being absorbed into the Reich, and a few odds and sods like Galicia and Bosnia being tacked on to various German satellite states. Overall, the CP would be no weaker than before, and might well be stronger, in this configuration.

 

[lukedalton]

Why should it collapse?

With a degree of German propping it fought on till October 1918, when the collapse of the Macedonian front made its borders indefensible. Before the war about the worst it had to deal with was some IRA-style terrorism by Bosnian Serbs, and Reichsrat deputies occasionally throwing inkpots at the Speaker - not very decorous but hardly the sort of thing that brings down empires. If it's still on its feet when peacetime returns, there's no particular reason for it to collapse.

Even if it does, in a CP wins scenario, the likeliest form for this to take would be a separate Hungary (still allied to Germany) with the bulk of the Austrian half being absorbed into the Reich, and a few odds and sods like Galicia and Bosnia being tacked on to various German satellite states. Overall, the CP would be no weaker than before, and might well be stronger, in this configuration.

Because the OP state a PoD in 1918 and by that the expiration date of the Hasbourg Empire is passed, too much death and destruction, too much lost confidence in the leaderships.

Honestly, by that time is irrilevant if the CP win or lose, as the post war economic and social troubles, the political uphveal who will hit winner and loser alike will be the final hit on the coffin.

Sure the Germans can prop them for a while, but they have their problem so it will not be forever and frankly too much 'help' will deligitimize the ruling class even more.

The biggest flaw who i had always see in the great part of the CP victory scenarios, is the fact that even after a war of comparable lenght and destruction of OTL things goes ok almost immediately it end if the German and their allies win. We are talking of the most destructive conflict in human history till that moment, a war who had create great ripple in all societies, who had see the mobilization of entire nation and an entire generation lost; it's not that victory had bring much joy in the Entente in OTL and frankly the OE and the A-H had even bigger internal problem than them to face, expecially with a so late PoD like that.

 

[Queeney]

Wasn't there a famous English historian who said that the British Empire could still exist today if Germany had won WW1?

 

[Simreeve]

It's likely that Hitler could've actually gained himself a job as a governor to one of Germany's newly acquired colonies

A corporal with no important connections?!?

 

[Mikestone8]

Even in victory, there is going to be a radicalization of the german populace. He could still end up leading an influential political party, and I could see him being bought off with a political appointment to govern a small bit of the new territories.

But where does the money come from? He got crucial support from industrialists etc who feared Communism and despised the Weimar Republic. Are such men likely to support him in subverting the Imperial regime?

 

[Mikestone8]

Because the OP state a PoD in 1918 and by that the expiration date of the Hasbourg Empire is passed, too much death and destruction, too much lost confidence in the leaderships.

Sorry, I don't know what you mean by "expiration date". As I said, A/H fought on with German help right through 1918, so why should it collapse after coming through the war?


And after all, what is the alternative? If it falls, its non-German peoples have nowhere to go except under some more direct form of German domination. Would they particularly want that?

 

[lukedalton]

Sorry, I don't know what you mean by "expiration date". As I said, A/H fought on with German help right through 1918, so why should it collapse after coming through the war?

Because the war is over, and now is time to face the problem, in that case, economy destroyed (and the soldiers coming back from the front who will enlarge the numbers of jobless) not counting the various millions of death and a ruling class total deligimited aka what happened to the victors in OTL, at this you must add all the problems A-H had at the beginning of the war and hoped to resolve. By the end of the war Austria-Hungary was a German puppet, with the army keep going only with German support, frankly this don't make the proper Hasbourg goverment look very good or even usefull, look at the offensive of Vittorio Veneto (happened just two months after the end of the OTL German spring offensive), the Austrian Army basically dissolved due to famine, low morale and general lack of supply and direction...not the picture for an optimistic. So sorry, A-H can be put on life support for a while, but is history in the medium term...hell probably even on the short.

And after all, what is the alternative? If it falls, its non-German peoples have nowhere to go except under some more direct form of German domination. Would they particularly want that?

As said above, with the A-H already been a German puppet...why they must keep the facade or even recognize the utility of keep the Empire united as they are already under the control of Berlin. Better cut the middleman and at least being nominally independent (and at least have a degree of autonomy at home)

 

[Mikestone8]

Because the war is over, and now is time to face the problem, in that case, economy destroyed (and the soldiers coming back from the front who will enlarge the numbers of jobless) not counting the various millions of death and a ruling class total deligimited aka what happened to the victors in OTL, at this you must add all the problems A-H had at the beginning of the war and hoped to resolve. By the end of the war Austria-Hungary was a German puppet, with the army keep going only with German support, frankly this don't make the proper Hasbourg goverment look very good or even usefull, look at the offensive of Vittorio Veneto (happened just two months after the end of the OTL German spring offensive), the Austrian Army basically dissolved due to famine, low morale and general lack of supply and direction...not the picture for an optimistic. So sorry, A-H can be put on life support for a while, but is history in the medium term...hell probably even on the short.

The Austrian army collapsed because everyone knew the war was lost. After all it was still fighting well into October 1918. If victorious, whether by its own efforts or (more likely) Germany's, it will be eating comfortably at the expense of the inhabitants of the occupied parts of Northern Italy. Why rebel in that situation?

As said above, with the A-H already been a German puppet...why they must keep the facade or even recognize the utility of keep the Empire united as they are already under the control of Berlin. Better cut the middleman and at least being nominally independent (and at least have a degree of autonomy at home)

What autonomy?

The German-Austrians will presumably join the Reich, and geography means that the Czechs and Slovenes will be dragged in with them willy-nilly. The smaller nationalities of Hungary will still be as miserable as ever under Magyar rule. That just leaves the Magyars themselves, and maybe the Galician Poles and/or Bosnian Serbs - and even if all three rebel in concert they are likely to be soon suppressed - certainly if Vienna gets a modicum of German support, and probably even without it.

 

[lukedalton]

The Austrian army collapsed because everyone knew the war was lost. After all it was still fighting well into October 1918. If victorious, whether by its own efforts or (more likely) Germany's, it will be eating comfortably at the expense of the inhabitants of the occupied parts of Northern Italy. Why rebel in that situation?

No, in October 1918 what they do is not called fighting, basically the italian army rolled over them, they were hungry, very tired and with little supply and the Italian not...and the idea of eating with what found in occupied Veneto is almost ASB as during the Caporetto retreat the italians applied a policy of burned earth (plus the territory was very poor from the beginning) and what little left was already been consumed by 1918. If the Spring offensive will be a success, Diaz will be try an offensive in Veneto to reconquer much territory posssible before any negotiation, and frankly even with less time to prepare the possibility of the Austrian army to stop the Italian at this stage are very low.

But i sense that you have not understand what i mean, so i will try to explain again: At this stage victory is meaningless for A-H, as after any peace will be signed, the soldiers will come back home and the real trouble will begin. By this date, trust in the ruling class is basically zero, the army exist only thanks to German help, the is famine in the entire nation, incredible loss of men (not counting the wounded both phisically and mentally) and the economy will be in shamble, in practice all the problems that the victorious nation of the OTL Entente faced, all in addition to the pre-war problem of the Empire; now how can the goverment of the Emperor realistically survive something similar to the italian 'Red two years'.

What autonomy?


The German-Austrians will presumably join the Reich, and geography means that the Czechs and Slovenes will be dragged in with them willy-nilly. The smaller nationalities of Hungary will still be as miserable as ever under Magyar rule. That just leaves the Magyars themselves, and maybe the Galician Poles and/or Bosnian Serbs - and even if all three rebel in concert they are likely to be soon suppressed - certainly if Vienna gets a modicum of German support, and probably even without it.

And remain in the A-H what advantage mean? By the end the goverment in Vienna was wholly owned subsidiary of the German one, so even stay united mean nothing. Regarding the failure of any rebellion, well is not that the victorious entente has fought very hard to keep much of their gain, as the soldiers were tired and there were no stomach for prolonged fight and frankly at all the inter-ethnic problem we must add the communist and the local right extremist.

A-H had won the war, ok, but so Italy in OTL and very few of good as coming from that, and at least we don't have ethnic problem or face a sclerotic oligarchy.

 

[PhoenicianLegacy]

I personally think that the Ottomans would have stayed at their 1914 borders but eventually developed into a regional-great power because of the oil in Iraq and already emerging Ottoman identity.

Their ascendency from the gutter they were in would've occurred in steps. Eventually they could've transformed into TTL's Saudi Arabia.

 

[Mikestone8]

No, in October 1918 what they do is not called fighting, basically the italian army rolled over them, they were hungry, very tired and with little supply and the Italian not...and the idea of eating with what found in occupied Veneto is almost ASB as during the Caporetto retreat the italians applied a policy of burned earth (plus the territory was very poor from the beginning) and what little left was already been consumed by 1918.

They were "rolled over" because of what had happened in Macedonia, where the collapse of that front led to the Hungarian units demanding to go home to defend their southern border. This of course led to a rapid disintegration. Until then they were still resisting, and of course it would not have happened TTL, since given a CP victory the Balkan Front will presumably not have collapsed.

As for "Venetia", I presume you are referring to the little bit conquered after Caporetto. I wasn't. The OP assumes an outright CP win, at least on the Continent, so both France and Italy have collapsed and sizeable chunks of both are under CP occupation. Even if the Austrians can't manage this unaided, once France has fallen the Germans will be free to send whatever support is required.

But i sense that you have not understand what i mean, so i will try to explain again: At this stage victory is meaningless for A-H, as after any peace will be signed, the soldiers will come back home and the real trouble will begin. By this date, trust in the ruling class is basically zero, the army exist only thanks to German help, the is famine in the entire nation, incredible loss of men (not counting the wounded both phisically and mentally) and the economy will be in shamble, in practice all the problems that the victorious nation of the OTL Entente faced, all in addition to the pre-war problem of the Empire; now how can the goverment of the Emperor realistically survive something similar to the italian 'Red two years'.

Sure, the place is a mess, but why should that mean disintegration? None of the victorious powers disintegrated OTL, and in some ways the ethnic diversity may even help, since if, say, a Magyar regiment mutinies, a Croatian one can be called in to suppress them.

There'll undoubtedly be riots, but no reason to assume that order can't be restored. After all, OTL there were red flags hoisted in all sorts of places (though mostly on the defeated side) in 1919/20, but by 1923 what was there to show for it outside Russia? In the end, law and order won, and I don't see why it couldn't have won in a victorious Austria - especially if the even more victorious German army stood ready to lend a hand if needed.

And remain in the A-H what advantage mean?

And equally what advantage rejecting it? Are people going to rush out and get massacred on barricades just to replace indirect German domination by direct?

 

[lukedalton]

They were "rolled over" because of what had happened in Macedonia, where the collapse of that front led to the Hungarian units demanding to go home to defend their southern border. This of course led to a rapid disintegration. Until then they were still resisting, and of course it would not have happened TTL, since given a CP victory the Balkan Front will presumably not have collapsed.

As for "Venetia", I presume you are referring to the little bit conquered after Caporetto. I wasn't. The OP assumes an outright CP win, at least on the Continent, so both France and Italy have collapsed and sizeable chunks of both are under CP occupation. Even if the Austrians can't manage this unaided, once France has fallen the Germans will be free to send whatever support is required.

No, the OP state that the German spring offensive is more succesfull so there is a negotiated peace before the american soldiers arrive, aka a barely win by the CP, in this scenario Germany is not the overlord of continental Europe and cannot ask much as the entente need to wait for the arrival of the american soldiers if she goes for too outrageous demand. In the end they will go for a status quo ante for France (and forget any reparation) and keep what she gained in the East, the colonial empire is history and regarding Belgium they can go for the hard stance and try to keep (very hard thing) but in this case Congo will be divided between France and UK
Italy is not collapsed, she is itching for a rematch and as almost completed the resupply of the army and the training of the new soldiers and Germany can't send too much help to the Austrian for logistical reason and because she had already scrap the bottom of the barrel with the mentioned offensive.
And yes, the Balkan front is collapsed.

Sure, the place is a mess, but why should that mean disintegration? None of the victorious powers disintegrated OTL, and in some ways the ethnic diversity may even help, since if, say, a Magyar regiment mutinies, a Croatian one can be called in to suppress them.

Sure nobody disintegrated (if you don't count Russia) but no other power was a hodgepodge of nationality kept together in a precarious equilibrium by a softer version of the Tsar like the A-H empire and regarding your proposal, well what happened when even the Croatian mutinies?

There'll undoubtedly be riots, but no reason to assume that order can't be restored. After all, OTL there were red flags hoisted in all sorts of places (though mostly on the defeated side) in 1919/20, but by 1923 what was there to show for it outside Russia? In the end, law and order won, and I don't see why it couldn't have won in a victorious Austria - especially if the even more victorious German army stood ready to lend a hand if needed

.

Humm...let me see Italy after the Biennio Rosso become the prototype of the Fascist takeover, France experienced political turmoil and instability till the second world war with two or three close call for coup or civil war, Great Britain basically begin her decline and all that with a more modern state than A-H, so sorry but by a PoD so late in the war there is very little that can be done for save the empire

And equally what advantage rejecting it? Are people going to rush out and get massacred on barricades just to replace indirect German domination by direct?

In all honestly, this is not a very good premise for any healthy nation, and frankly the German will have enough internal problem that help the A-H empire will become soon a lower priority.

 

[Mikestone8]

No, the OP state that the German spring offensive is more succesfull so there is a negotiated peace before the american soldiers arrive, aka a barely win by the CP, in this scenario Germany is not the overlord of continental Europe and cannot ask much as the entente need to wait for the arrival of the american soldiers if she goes for too outrageous demand.

The OP states as follows -

What if during World War I, the Central Powers of Germany, Austro-Hungary and the Ottomans emerged victorious rather than the Entente? The PoD of my timeline being that the German Spring offensive of 1918 proves successful and by the time American reinforcements arrive, it is too late.

IOW the CPs win the war, pure and simple, at least on the Continent, before the AEF gets a chance to do anything about it. There's no mention of a compromise peace.

In all honestly, this is not a very good premise for any healthy nation, and frankly the German will have enough internal problem that help the A-H empire will become soon a lower priority.

Iirc the German Army's normal peacetime strength is around 700,000, and they won't need more than a fraction of that to blow away a few barricades in Prague, Budapest and maybe one or two other places.

And stationing the troops in a foreign country, with presumably the right to requisition supplies, may well cost less than maintaining them at home.

In any case how long would it need to continue? The Russians intervened in 1849 to help Austria, but once Kossuth was scotched, they didn't need to remain. The Austrians were able to look after themselves thereafter. Would it be any different following a similar German intervention in say 1919?

 

[Glenn239]

But i sense that you have not understand what i mean, so i will try to explain again: At this stage victory is meaningless for A-H, as after any peace will be signed, the soldiers will come back home and the real trouble will begin.

Not the entire Austrian collapsed. On the Italian Front , Boroević had extracted part of the Army of Isonzo from the Italian pursuit and was ready to march on Vienna to put down the rebellion against the monarchy. His offer was declined by the Emperor, but before demobilizing, he had kept his remaining Army of the Isonzo together for several days, waiting for orders to march to Vienna.

The army had originally collapsed because the peoples of the empire, seeing that defeat was inevitable after the failure of the German 1918 offensives, had fractured in response to Allied demands the Empire disintegrate. The notion that the Austrian Empire would collapse because of inevitable Central Powers victory? That seems a little farfetched. What exactly is this Czech rebellion going to fight the German army and K.u.K. with?