WI The Central Powers won the First World War?

PhoenicianLegacy

Banned
Hey Guys, PhoenicianLegacy here once more.

Here's something I'd like to discuss another topic brought up on this forum before only to be discontinued God knows how many times.

What if during World War I, the Central Powers of Germany, Austro-Hungary and the Ottomans emerged victorious rather than the Entente? The PoD of my timeline being that the German Spring offensive of 1918 proves successful and by the time American reinforcements arrive, it is too late.

What would be the immediate effect of such a turning point? For one thing, the Kaiser's Government of Germany will survive, meaning no Weimar-era and no Nazis. Rather than Germany's Empire meet an end, it would get a boost out of the gradual dissolution of Britain and France's own Empires. Also, since OTL's outcome of WWI marked the death knell for the Ottoman Empire, maybe a Central Victory would've actually helped them survive a little longer, especially with all that oil on their doorstep.

In addition, America will be very conflicted over the Central Power's victory and will decide to remain isolationist for a longer period of time.

I very much find this theoretical timeline much more interesting than if Germany had won WWII (AKA a skinhead's wet-dream).
 

Riain

The war was politically radicalised by 1918, you can only get a Brest-Litovsk/Versailles punitive peace by then rather than something all parties can live with long term, which is what can happen if the war ends in 1916-17.
 

Mikestone8

A lot depends on the attitude of France. Does she try and come back for revenge a generation or two later, or does this second lost war cause her to resign herself to being Germany's sidekick? If the latter we get the Common Market half a century ahead of time.

Also, what happens to Russia? If the Germans are smart (admittedly a big if) they will leave the Bolsheviks controlling the core of European Russia, but surrounded by independent White regimes. Basically don't let it reunite under either Red or White auspices.

Next question is whether they can get a lasting peace with Britain. If not expect a naval war a decade or two down the line, but with a far bigger German U-boat fleet.
 

sciscisciortino

Mikestone8 said:
A lot depends on the attitude of France. Does she try and come back for revenge a generation or two later, or does this second lost war cause her to resign herself to being Germany's sidekick? If the latter we get the Common Market half a century ahead of time.
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That depends on how much Britain is willing to go for Round 2. France itself will be far too weakened.

Russia itself will be Red, yeah. Good question on what that'll mean, they want to regain those territories. Let along the incentive for international revolution.
 

Enceladus

The Ottoman Empire was already pretty much on life support well before WWI, so I couldn't see it lasting more than a few more years.

The better question is what would happen to all its former territory without it being spoils of war. I doubt Austro-Hungary would be interested in it since taking Serbia from the Ottomans didn't work so well.
 

Gurroruo

Northern France to Germany. Some French colonies to Germany. Britain gets away with only war reparations. AH gets Serbia and maybe Albania and Montenegro. AH also gets some of Italy. Soon after AH goes for Ottomans. Bulgaria is quickly forgotten. France is crippled with debt and goes extreme nationalist. Portugal pays small war reparations. Possibility of Spain joining German camp, maybe even a political marriage. Russia reels back and starts planning revenge on German. America goes isolationist.

All in all Britain is the big winner, Germany gets second prize, and third place is contested.
 

PhoenicianLegacy

Banned
If Britain had departed from the India region, Japan might have taken advantage of that. Also, would've Britain and France developed the same kind of organized anti-semetism in the midst of their ordeal?
 
Vingilótë

Vingilótë

Gurroruo said:
Northern France to Germany. Some French colonies to Germany. Britain gets away with only war reparations. AH gets Serbia and maybe Albania and Montenegro. AH also gets some of Italy. Soon after AH goes for Ottomans. Bulgaria is quickly forgotten. France is crippled with debt and goes extreme nationalist. Portugal pays small war reparations. Possibility of Spain joining German camp, maybe even a political marriage. Russia reels back and starts planning revenge on German. America goes isolationist.

All in all Britain is the big winner, Germany gets second prize, and third place is contested.
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Eastern France (at least, those portions Germany wanted), you mean. Germany doesn't border Northern France.

Bulgaria would probably get Macedonia and possibly more of Dobrudja, since it wanted it OTL. Not forgotten, but definitely the junior partner of the coalition.

PhoenicianLegacy said:
If Britain had departed from the India region, Japan might have taken advantage of that. Also, would've Britain and France developed the same kind of organized anti-semetism in the midst of their ordeal?
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I don't see Britain departing from India, at all. It's still too concentrated there for that.

Very probably, yes; especially in France; it's often forgotten that in many respects, at the time, France was every bit as anti-Semitic as Germany.
 

Zaius

Gurroruo said:
All in all Britain is the big winner, Germany gets second prize
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Huh? Britain bleeds itself out terribly, still loses, and is the big winner instead of Germany which, well, won? I suppose Britain could grab a number of colonies and say, "If you want them, come and try claiming them", but it would still be no more then a consolation prize, not changing the basic fact that it failed to prevent Germany from becoming hegemon on the continent. Germany on the other hand will have a nightmare running its' new empire, but even a few decades of this will likely bring immense profit and produce serious long-term advantages even if much of it is eventually lost. And if the treaty of Brest-Litovsk went as OTL, which is to be expected with the OP's point of divergence, Germany doesn't have to worry about being stuck between Russia and France for a long time.
 
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lukedalton

PhoenicianLegacy said:
Hey Guys, PhoenicianLegacy here once more.

Here's something I'd like to discuss another topic brought up on this forum before only to be discontinued God knows how many times.

What if during World War I, the Central Powers of Germany, Austro-Hungary and the Ottomans emerged victorious rather than the Entente? The PoD of my timeline being that the German Spring offensive of 1918 proves successful and by the time American reinforcements arrive, it is too late.

What would be the immediate effect of such a turning point? For one thing, the Kaiser's Government of Germany will survive, meaning no Weimar-era and no Nazis. Rather than Germany's Empire meet an end, it would get a boost out of the gradual dissolution of Britain and France's own Empires. Also, since OTL's outcome of WWI marked the death knell for the Ottoman Empire, maybe a Central Victory would've actually helped them survive a little longer, especially with all that oil on their doorstep.

In addition, America will be very conflicted over the Central Power's victory and will decide to remain isolationist for a longer period of time.

I very much find this theoretical timeline much more interesting than if Germany had won WWII (AKA a skinhead's wet-dream).
Click to expand...

Ehmm...sorry but a victory in the spring offensive will not mean a 'CP win' scenario, except in the sense that they goes for a negotiating peace...in the best case scenario for Germany they keep the B-L gain but retreat from the western front and forget their colonial empire. With the american coming the Entente know that they can replenish their loss in men and material but the CP not. Not counting that the often forgot italian front play a role here, a more succesfull spring offensive can tip the hand of Diaz and so launch an offensive against the A-H line and even if not succesfull as OTL Vittorio Veneto will probably break the front risking to open south Germany to attack.

The minor CP powers are still history by this date; A-H lost too many men, their leaderships disgraced and basically a puppet of Germany, too much economic damage and the various minority are becoming to see the writing on the wall on the entire Hasburg rule.

Same for the Ottoman Empire, even if a minor degree and can get hold in more territory than OTL Turkey.

Germany will need to digest the conquest of East Europe and will face political and economic strife due to the war and the fight between junkers and socialist so the possibilty of some extremist taking power still exist.
 
Baconheimer

Baconheimer

If a CP victory occurs, then France goes Fascist. Napoleonic Wars Mk. II probably, of course, alot shorter and with more tanks.
 

deathscompanion1

Banned
Baconheimer said:
If a CP victory occurs, then France goes Fascist. Napoleonic Wars Mk. II probably, of course, alot shorter and with more tanks.
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France isnt Germany.

Germany had much greater population and industry OTL against a stronger France, if France gears up for round 2 (3) it will probably get smashed and it would be pretty clear to everyone that would be the case so I doubt they would actually fight another war.
 
Baconheimer

Baconheimer

deathscompanion1 said:
France isnt Germany.

Germany had much greater population and industry OTL against a stronger France, if France gears up for round 2 (3) it will probably get smashed.
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Thats why it would be shorter. Although, with a victory in 1918, Germany will definetly have less population. A revanchist france may be able to overtake that gap with new weapons.
 

Zaius

Baconheimer said:
Thats why it would be shorter. Although, with a victory in 1918, Germany will definetly have less population. A revanchist france may be able to overtake that gap with new weapons.
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After Germany annexes the industrial areas close to the border farther increasing its advantage, this would be extremely difficult for France to even contemplate. When discussing CP victories it sometimes seems as if every second person expects "OMG Fascist France Attacks!!!" while paying much less attention to the only continental power which actually would have the potential to threaten Germany.
 

MonAngel

deathscompanion1 said:
France isnt Germany.

Germany had much greater population and industry OTL against a stronger France, if France gears up for round 2 (3) it will probably get smashed and it would be pretty clear to everyone that would be the case so I doubt they would actually fight another war.
Click to expand...

Then how will be relationship between Red Russia and Entente in TTL?
If Entente is serous about 2nd round they need strong Russia to beat Germany.
I agree without strong Russia, Entente has no chance beating Germany.
 

lukedalton

deathscompanion1 said:
France isnt Germany.

Germany had much greater population and industry OTL against a stronger France, if France gears up for round 2 (3) it will probably get smashed and it would be pretty clear to everyone that would be the case so I doubt they would actually fight another war.
Click to expand...

Germany had the mess of East Europe and the post-A-H empire to resolve plus her internal problems, so it will not be in the best position herself.
With a PoD so late, basically there are only loser.
 

Catspoke

1918 victory scenerio:

Hidenburg economic plan not implemented, German economy incrementally better by 1918 allowing the Germans to flesh out a few more divisions with better weaponry to make the "attack" worthy. Hoffman also comes west to help corrdinate the attacks better.

Amiens captured 1918 in Michael. Houffailze captured in Georgette, Germans shut down offensives in the west then (no Blucher). Allies can't really lauch counterattacks due to messed up supply situation due to loss of these key objectives.

Germany announces peace objectives to the world. Germany gets free hand in the east to keep her gains, back to 1914 boundries in the west. Germany loses all colonies but gets a 15 year occupation on Briery basin and a 15 year occupation on Liege as compensation. This is ignored by the Allies at first.

Germans switch 12 of their best divisions to Italy to support Piave offensive in June. Italians forced back to the Adige River, Venice falls.

Germany repeats her proposal. Austria notes she has no desire to add Italians to her territory as part of any peace deal and notes that she has no problem with Italian occupation of Albania. Italy starts pushing the other Allies to make peace behind the scenes and makes no further offensive plans.

Faced with little prospect of anything sucesfull happening in 1918 at least and a war pushing into 1919. The Allies agree to these terms as long as Germans agree to put limits on naval size including a greatly reduced number of submarines.

Winners:
Germany gains infuence in the east, her greatest fear a Russian colosus is reduced and pushed further away. She has lost only money losing colonies. She has also gained temporarily some military and economic advantages in the west. The navy is reduced, but it was expensive anyway.

Britain: Has gained German colonies, some Turkish territory and a naval agreement. Her security is assured.

Turkey: Has gained Batum and the Caucasus are independent and open for domination, Russia weakened. British retain Jerusalem and Baghadad however Mosul, Syria nand Jordan still Turkish

Losers:
Russia of course.
France, huge wartimes losses, Alcase Lorraine not gaied, Briery basin given up for 15 years (and thats only if the Germans really give it back)

Confused:
Austria is around but really is a German client state by this point. But for the Germans of the empire thats probably ok.

Italy: 1914 boundries restored. Albania gained. The war didn't help her military reputaion though.

USA: Entering the war ensured Britain is still strong and thus improves her security. However there is no clear victory gained but without the October 1918 OTL offensives, losses are less.
 
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