WI: The Carlists won the First War?

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Onyx

Banned
Too be real, I have no expertise on Spanish History, I just stumbled upon the Carlists by playing Vicky :D:rolleyes::eek::p

Anyways, would any of you people have good knowledge on the Carlists and there intentions of the war, and what would happen if they won it (I assume massive butterfly swarm approaching)
 
Funny coincidence, I was playing a Vicky game as Spain a few hours ago :p

Still, on topic, the Carlists allied themselves with conservatives, so obviously we would see a more conservative Spain in the 19th century as opposed to a liberal one. This would mean a much stronger Catholic influence, as opposed to the relative anti-clericalism of liberal Spain OTL (as can be seen by the confiscations of church lands). Im not sure what impact a Carlist victory would have on the international stage though, so prehaps a person more knowledgeable on 19th century Spanish history could answer that question.
 
Oh, you can use more graphic terms than that. "Less anticlericalism" means "reinstating the Inquisition". Also restoring the Jesuits to their previous positions.

Carlos V seems rather smarter than his brother, but he's also unwilling to accept the idea that the Spanish Empire is effectively no more. He's going to try and retake Mexico. Since Britain and the USA both have an interest in not letting the Spanish Empire rise again, it won't go well.

Domestically, though, you get a less centralised regime. The people backing the Carlists were the regional nobilities of Aragon, Valencia, Catalonia and the Basques, who really preferred the idea of Spain as personal and monetary union with rather separate governments for the regions (essentially, a return to the Habsburg way of doing things; one of the first things Philip V did was abolish their regional codes, proclaiming that Castilean law would henceforth be the law throughout Spain, and a century later Aragon and Catalonia were still burnt about it).
 
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Part of the answer depends on what happens to Isabella? Is she packed off to a monastery, or does she end up married into the dynasty (after all she DID marry her cousin in OTL anyway) and towing the line? Or is she eventually married off to someone of little status and thus her claims denuded that way?

Or does her mother manage to get her out and they flee into exile? Would this exile come to anything? Would she marry in exile, have children and then support their claims?

Did Carlos ever say what he wanted to do with his niece?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Well, a militar victory for the Carlist side is very unlikely. We discused it some months ago with a POD where Zumalacárregui doesn't die during the siege of Bilbao:

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=151778

In short, due to its own nature the Carlists armies couldn't wage a long war, they had support only in some localized zones of the spanish territory and less resources than the Cristinos, not to mention the french, british and portuguese support to María Cristina's side. Zumalacárregui genious could have balanced a bit the things, but he died too early to know it and how decisive it could have been.

But, most likely, the Carlists can get a victory avant la lettre. If the absolutists are successful in their attempts to derogate the Pragmatic Sanction, Carlos V would have been king of Spain. The most obvious occasion is during the incidents of La Granja in 1832.

Shawn Endresen has made a well put summary of the basic lines of the Carlist political program, though I'm not so sure about Carlos trying to retake Mexico. However I think the recognition of the mexican independence by Spain probably would be delayed. Furthermore, a Carlist regime probably would mean the diplomatic isolation of Spain from France and Britain, and perhaps also open hostility from these powers, thus the spanish economy is even more screwed than in OTL. It would have also inmediate butterflies in the portuguese political conflict, not too different of the spanish one in many traits.

Domestically, sooner or latter (and I think sooner than latter) the, let's call them "Isabelinos", are going to burn the country. Probably they could form an army (or something similar) in the Pyrenees with french support, while they could open another front from Gibraltar with british support, as happened, at some extent, (without official support of any power) during the irregular actions during the Absolutist Decade (nothing important, conspirations and small raids, always with disastrous consequences for the protagonists). Most of the main cities (doubtless Madrid, Barcelona and Cadiz among them) would proclaim juntas in the name of the rights of Isabel (if not something more "extremist") we would see barricades and disorders and if the enemies of Carlos manage to cooperate properly we could have a reversed Carlist war, with the difference that "isabelinos" would have a slighty better base than OTL Carlists. We need to make clear at this point that liberals at this time and in this country is a very vague amalgame of groups and ideologies going from non-absolutist conservatives to democratic radicals and perhaps even some early republicans. Of course I don't mean that in this scenario the "isabelinos" are going to have the support of the "masses". In fact, I think we can expect apathy by the part of the majority of the population, specially in the rural areas (and that's a redundance, because most of spaniards were rurals at the time) with the exception of volunteers in OTL Carlist strogholds, obviously volunteers for the king's side. The key piece would be the army and here all depends on how efficient is the likely purge among the officers (it wouldn't be the first, by the way) once Carlos takes the throne.

Regarding the political fate of Spain under the reign of Carlos V. Well, first of all, I'm baised and I'm not very sympathetic towards the Carlists. In my opinion it would be a very dark hour for the country. Sure, OTL spanish 19th century is not at all the happiest possible, but a Carlist regime would be even worse. If it is long enoguh, I'm scared to think in the long-term consequences.
In the political spectrum, I suppouse that means that maybe the future spanish left will be more similar to the italian and french left (more jacobin-style centralism) than in OTL, where federalism has been always a relatively strong branch inside the spanish left while probably the right wouldn't have kidnaped the originialy revolutionary idea of the National Movement. In the short-term, as Shawn Endresen says, we have a less centralized Spain (to be fair the centralizing tentatives never succeeded properly, but they created political tensions that would be very important in the ulterior spanish history) with an strong religious component, whose constitution would be the old Fundamental Laws of the Kingdom (in some sense british style, but that's a rough comparation) and a harsh repression and a uncomfortable problem for France regarding the exiliates.

Cheers.
 
Part of the answer depends on what happens to Isabella? Is she packed off to a monastery, or does she end up married into the dynasty (after all she DID marry her cousin in OTL anyway) and towing the line? Or is she eventually married off to someone of little status and thus her claims denuded that way?

Or does her mother manage to get her out and they flee into exile? Would this exile come to anything? Would she marry in exile, have children and then support their claims?

Did Carlos ever say what he wanted to do with his niece?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

That's a good point. I'm sorry for the double post, I was typing my post and trying to make it to seem something similar to english while Grey Wolf posted his message.

In OTL there were negotations to arrange a marriage between Isabel and Carlos' son, Carlos Luis, during the first Carlist War, obviously without good end. Similar negotiations are not unlikely in this TL since the original motivation remains: it was seen as a way to settle the division among the spaniards. If they arrange a marriage, that would mean also, I guess, political concessions by the part of Carlos V. If not, all depends on the anti-Carlos side response, as said, it could lead to a reversed situation, with the Isabelinos claiming the throne in the exile if they don't manage to overthrow Carlos. I think so because the social and political base behind OTL Isabel II are going to reamin in place, and probably 1836 in Spain is a bit too early to expect a movement looking for legimitacy without a royal figure as reference, at least if they want to have widespread support. The obvious choice would be still Isabel, since they have the legal imbroglio created by the Pragmatic Sanction* and the young princess is the best candidate to be educated under a liberal mindset.

*The Pragmatic Sanction was redacted under Charles IV reign, but the preludes of the Peninsular War prevented the king to sign it. Everyone forgot it until the question of the succesion raised when Isabel was born.

Cheers.
 
That's a good point. I'm sorry for the double post, I was typing my post and trying to make it to seem something similar to english while Grey Wolf posted his message.

In OTL there were negotations to arrange a marriage between Isabel and Carlos' son, Carlos Luis, during the first Carlist War, obviously without good end. Similar negotiations are not unlikely in this TL since the original motivation remains: it was seen as a way to settle the division among the spaniards. If they arrange a marriage, that would mean also, I guess, political concessions by the part of Carlos V. If not, all depends on the anti-Carlos side response, as said, it could lead to a reversed situation, with the Isabelinos claiming the throne in the exile if they don't manage to overthrow Carlos. I think so because the social and political base behind OTL Isabel II are going to reamin in place, and probably 1836 in Spain is a bit too early to expect a movement looking for legimitacy without a royal figure as reference, at least if they want to have widespread support. The obvious choice would be still Isabel, since they have the legal imbroglio created by the Pragmatic Sanction* and the young princess is the best candidate to be educated under a liberal mindset.

*The Pragmatic Sanction was redacted under Charles IV reign, but the preludes of the Peninsular War prevented the king to sign it. Everyone forgot it until the question of the succesion raised when Isabel was born.

Cheers.

Thank you for the reply. Its very interesting what you say about plans to marry Isabella to the younger Carlos. I guess it all comes down to whether or not King Carlos has enough power in his hands to force this through - either he holds the person of Isabella, or he perhaps holds her mother who negotiates it. If both escape, I can see the uprisings you mention being the likely outcome.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 

Onyx

Banned
Thanks guys for the info, I've been thinking about this and wondered if a butterfly swarm would immerse.

Would thre be any changes in the Colonies? Phillipines, Morocco, etc
 
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