Yeah, it's pretty much impossible to plausibly prevent the financial crisis by 2000, no matter who is elected. If the financial crisis waits until after 2008 ITTL (not an unlikely scenario, imo), we could even see a non-Cheney Republican succeed Bush.
It'll be like OTL, an open election. Cheney wouldn't be able to go for it, not with his health issues. So no incumbents. And the election will be fought either on the economy or on US internal issues. It could go either way. And whoever wins has been handed a poisoned chalice.