WI The Bulgarian Communists support Stamboliyski?

Aleksandar Stamboliyski is one of the more interesting political figures of the 20th Century - he was an agrarian leftist who wasn't a Marxist-Leninist (indeed, at the time he was active Marxist-Leninism was still very much focused on urban workers). In the aftermath of WW1, he served as Prime Minister of Bulgaria from 1919 to 1923 and managed to get a pretty impressive amount of stuff done in both domestic and foreign policy, considering how much internal opposition his reforms aroused.

As a leftist and since Bulgaria was a pariah state after WW1, Bulgaria under Stamboliyski was wooed by the Soviet Union (rather unsuccessfully).

However, in 1923, a coup would out him from his office and while Stamboliyski fled and tried to rally support in the countryside, he was captured by IMRO (the Macedonia terrorist/freedom fighter organization which played a big role in the region in the early 20th Century) and tortured to death. During all this, the Bulgarian Communists stood by and did nothing, despite Moscow very much desiring that they should act. To expunge their sin with blood, the Communists in Bulgaria would be ordered by Moscow to revolt - this rising which came well after Stamboliyski was dead and his BZNS was suppressed - was crushed easily. The Bulgarian rising would be the last Soviet attempt to spread revolution in Europe until WW2.

But what if the Bulgarian Communists rose in support of Stamboliyski? And what if we further assume that this support is enough to tip the balance? What impact might it have for Bulgaria and Stamboliyski to be pushed into an alliance with the Bolsheviks?

I suspect that the Bulgarian Agrarianists could have a real impact on the evolution of Soviet ideology at this early stage. Even if it is as small a change as convincing the Bolsheviks that the peasants are the key revolutionary section of the population. Might that result in less support for Communist parties in the developed world and an early shift to nurturing Communist parties in the less developed world? (With potentially huge impacts in China - the Soviet support for Chang Kai Shek was important for the success of the Chinese republicans in the interwar period.)

Russia having a Bulgarian ally in the run up to WW2 could be interesting as well (though it is quite possible that Stamboliyski could fall to a later coup attempt, or it could be that Bulgaria and the Soviets have a falling out - over Collectivization say).

And what sort of impact would a continuing BZNS/Stamboliyski government have on Bulgaria?

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There's a decent chance that a Bolshevik Bulgaria triggers a response from the Little Entente & Greece
 
There's a decent chance that a Bolshevik Bulgaria triggers a response from the Little Entente & Greece

But Bulgaria isn't Bolshevik. And Stamboliyski was about the only leader in Bulgaria pushing for better relations with the neighbours (part of why he was overthrown, and absolutely why he was murdered so gruesomely).

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But Bulgaria isn't Bolshevik. And Stamboliyski was about the only leader in Bulgaria pushing for better relations with the neighbours (part of why he was overthrown, and absolutely why he was murdered so gruesomely).

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Well, if the Bolsheviks rise up, defeat their bourgeois opponents and prop up a Stamboliyski puppet gov't, I'd call the new state Bolshevik
 
Well, if the Bolsheviks rise up, defeat their bourgeois opponents and prop up a Stamboliyski puppet gov't, I'd call the new state Bolshevik

Hm. I have a hard time seeing the Communists in Bulgaria being able to take over like this. While it is maybe possible that they could make a difference in the 1923 coup, in normal politics, they are still a small group with dangerously radical politics.

It is entirely possible (indeed, I suspect very likely) that Stamboliyski would purge the Communists after they help him (and I can't see the Soviets caring much if the end result was improved diplomatic relations). Even if the purge is a gentle one of telling the organizers of the Bulgarian Communist party "take a holiday to Moscow friend, else our next visit to your trade union meeting will be more painful", it would still suffice to say that Stamboliyski wasn't beholden to the Communists.

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Hm. I have a hard time seeing the Communists in Bulgaria being able to take over like this. While it is maybe possible that they could make a difference in the 1923 coup, in normal politics, they are still a small group with dangerously radical politics.

It is entirely possible (indeed, I suspect very likely) that Stamboliyski would purge the Communists after they help him (and I can't see the Soviets caring much if the end result was improved diplomatic relations). Even if the purge is a gentle one of telling the organizers of the Bulgarian Communist party "take a holiday to Moscow friend, else our next visit to your trade union meeting will be more painful", it would still suffice to say that Stamboliyski wasn't beholden to the Communists.

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If he purges the Communists, then he's likely to just expose himself to another, more successful fascist coup attempt in the future. I think more likely Stamboliyski would maintain a continued alliance with the Communists and become a key ally for Moscow.
 
I'm not sure if the support of the Bulgarian communist guarantees Stambolyski a quick victory. Remember that the entire Bulgarian Army is still vehemently opposed to the situation and though Stambolyski was popular with the peasants he also faced a considerable amount of resistance. A Bulgarian civil war seems more likely to me in this situation with the Left being divided between the Agrarians and the Communists.

Further complicating matters is the fact that Stambolyski in OTL had a difficult time convincing other powers that he wasn't an agent from Moscow and incurring foreign intervention. If the Bolsheviks rise up and together they're able to seize control of parts of the countryside, this isn't going to necessarily play in Stambolyski's favour internationally even if he is an opponent of Bulgarian revanchism. At the very least, Bulgaria's neighbours are going to be cold to the Agrarians, if not overtly hostile and aiding the Military. Romania certainly is going to want the anti-Agrarians to prevail due to the potential of having potentially Socialist states on both its northern and southern borders. IMO Stambolyski still loses but TTL's Bulgaria is probably even more anti-communist than OTL which could have interesting ramifications long term.
 
I'm not sure if the support of the Bulgarian communist guarantees Stambolyski a quick victory. Remember that the entire Bulgarian Army is still vehemently opposed to the situation and though Stambolyski was popular with the peasants he also faced a considerable amount of resistance. A Bulgarian civil war seems more likely to me in this situation with the Left being divided between the Agrarians and the Communists.
A civil war favors an Agrarian-Communist alliance. It would give them time to rouse their supporters which outnumbered those of the other parties (and were far more likely to fight) and the very small Bulgarian army as well. Also the political alliance behind the coup was largely one of convenience and might collapse once the situation turns against them, plus there is always the chance of the King stabbing them in the back.

Further complicating matters is the fact that Stambolyski in OTL had a difficult time convincing other powers that he wasn't an agent from Moscow and incurring foreign intervention. If the Bolsheviks rise up and together they're able to seize control of parts of the countryside, this isn't going to necessarily play in Stambolyski's favour internationally even if he is an opponent of Bulgarian revanchism. At the very least, Bulgaria's neighbours are going to be cold to the Agrarians, if not overtly hostile and aiding the Military. Romania certainly is going to want the anti-Agrarians to prevail due to the potential of having potentially Socialist states on both its northern and southern borders. IMO Stambolyski still loses but TTL's Bulgaria is probably even more anti-communist than OTL which could have interesting ramifications long term.
Alternatively, the neighbors could be persuaded that the right-wing forces are too weak to control Bulgaria and its better to use Stamboliyski who hasd a better track record of dealing with the Communists - as seen when he used armed force to disperse a Communist strike.

There's a decent chance that a Bolshevik Bulgaria triggers a response from the Little Entente & Greece
Stamboliyski had quite friendly relations with Yugoslavia (one of the reasons for the coup). If he's restored to power, they might prefer him rather than an anti-Yugoslavian government.

I suspect that the Bulgarian Agrarianists could have a real impact on the evolution of Soviet ideology at this early stage. Even if it is as small a change as convincing the Bolsheviks that the peasants are the key revolutionary section of the population.
In Bulgaria this happened anyway in OTL. The peasants were the backbone of the Communist armed forces both in the September uprising and the resistance during WWII. And the typical Communist functionary was of middle-class landholder origin. In fact, since one of the reasons this happened is that the Agrarians mostly gave up armed resistance, in this scenario this might not be the case.
 
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