WI: The British Seek Peace After Dunkirk - What Does the Settlement Look Like?

Greenville

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If the British Army is captured at Dunkirk and the British open negotiations, what are the terms of a peace agreement?
 

hipper

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If the British Army is captured at Dunkirk and the British open negotiations, what are the terms of a peace agreement?

"If this long island story of ours is to end at last, let it end only when each one of us lies choking in his own blood upon the ground."

Was the agreed Cabinet decision on the 28th of May 1940

Less than 8000 troops had been evacuated at this point, the Belgian Army had just surrendered.
 
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CaliGuy

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If the British Army is captured at Dunkirk and the British open negotiations, what are the terms of a peace agreement?
Britain would probably lose some of its colonies to Italy; indeed, what did Italy want? Malta? What else?

Also, Hitler would probably demand 1648 borders for France but might be willing to compromise if this means getting Britain to make peace. At the very least, though, Hitler will insist on acquiring and annexing Alsace-Lorraine.
 
What I would think would be in the peace deal:

A substantial part -- probably half if not more -- of the Royal and French navies go over to Germany. Some captains, and perhaps some admirals, pull a Scapa Flow and scuttle their ships, which causes the Germans to execute naval POWs, bombard ports, or do some other suitably Nazi form of retribution. Germany would want at least naval parity with Britain and France and might want even more than that.

British tank and airplane production goes to Germany. Either factories are stripped and moved, or the output is seized like it was in Czechoslovakia. British motorized vehicles in particular would be a boon for the Germans in the inevitable war with the USSR -- OTL they still largely depended on horses and French vehicles. If they had British production on their side as well, the Landsers might not have had to walk so much.

Any colonies which were formerly German and are, in 1940, British or French, become German again.

Huge reparations in cash and gold. By 1940 the British hadn't actually incurred that much damage on Germany, but a victor can demand what he wants, and the Germans wouldn't necessarily have to demand an amount that would cripple Britain. They could ask for entirely reasonable financial reparations and benefit tremendously from them because of the size of the British economy. That enables even larger shipments from the USSR until the war with them starts.

No German soldiers would be placed on British soil, but the Germans would still want to somehow exterminate the Judeo-plutocratic-democratic clique that started the war. (It's at the core of Nazi ideology that the British upper class started the war... by somehow forcing said Nazis to invade Poland...) Perhaps a Gestapo or SD detachment would be permitted to arrest and detain individuals "acting against the European peace."

In summary, the Germans were terribly sore about Versailles and their peace terms would be brutal. It's been said on here that asking an enemy what his terms are is effectively the same thing as agreeing to those terms. It makes sense; when a nation sues for peace it is essentially placing itself on its knees before the victor and asking what they must do to end the war. The UK in 1940 might have been in a position to refuse the German terms, but there would have been at least some public backlash as many people would view the German terms as fair, compared to their own personal risk of getting bombed. And the Germans could always have reacted with poison gas against the recalcitrant British.
 

Deleted member 1487

"If this long island story of ours is to end at last, let it end only when each one of us lies choking in his own blood upon the ground."

Was the agreed Cabinet decision on the 28th of May 1940

Less than 8000 troops had been evacuated at this point, the Belgian Army had just surrendered.
That was on the 28th, the usual POD is on the 24th when Hitler affirmed the Halt Order and ordered a pull out of bridgeheads over the Aa Canal would mean 0 troops get out and the War Cabinet Crisis going very differently. Churchill won the debate because the perimeter was able to be set up on the 26th, with Hitler striking down the Halt Order no perimeter is set up at all, Dunkirk is taken before the BEF even gets there, and they are surrounded and totally wiped out. In that case Churchill either asks for terms or loses a vote of No Confidence.

In terms of OP's question the terms could only be that Britain has no restrictions placed on it (no reparations, military restrictions, lost primary territory), prisoners exchanged, German future treaties with the continentals recognized, governments in exile expelled, probably no German offensive units based in conquered countries (naval, air, major armor forces) just occupation units. Perhaps German WW1 colonies held by Britain returned, maybe Malta to Italy. Definitely recognition of any colonial transfers from France or other European imperial powers.
 
A substantial part -- probably half if not more -- of the Royal and French navies go over to Germany

At this point, the British politely walk out in their very British way, and don't really hear what else the Germans had to say. Because, really, Germany is in no position to enforce a Versailles equivalent on the British so long as the Royal Navy stands, indeed, the Nazis would be hard pressed to push any terms beyond White Peace. So, it would really not make much sense for the British to surrender half their fleet, and any government that seriously suggested such an insane, suicidal measure would likely be hung for treason. Not every peace deal results in the winners being able to completely eviscerate the losers. It worked after WW1, because the allies had pretty much crushed the CP. In this scenario, though, the British are very, very far from crushed, for even if Dunkirk goes badly, the British still control the waves, and they know this. And even in an extreme state of war weariness, the British populace would hardly be willing to turn themselves over to the tender mercies of the Nazi regime while they still had a very good fighting chance which could only improve as time went on.
 
At this point, the British politely walk out in their very British way, and don't really hear what else the Germans had to say. Because, really, Germany is in no position to enforce a Versailles equivalent on the British so long as the Royal Navy stands, indeed, the Nazis would be hard pressed to push any terms beyond White Peace...

Politely walking out in their very British way is what I expect they would do. Germany would not be in a military position to claim everything that I listed -- even if they destroyed the BEF at Dunkirk -- but Germany is led by Adolf Hitler, and Hitler is not going to settle for a white peace after a year of war and all that German blood spilled in various countries he invaded. I suspect he would have wanted to punish the British in a Versailles-like fashion, and if they said no or began to look at their watches and quietly retreat towards the door, then Hitler would have threatened them with massive bombing raids or gas warfare, along the lines of Rotterdam. The British would have then chosen to weather that storm, knowing they could do so.
 

hipper

Banned
That was on the 28th, the usual POD is on the 24th when Hitler affirmed the Halt Order and ordered a pull out of bridgeheads over the Aa Canal would mean 0 troops get out and the War Cabinet Crisis going very differently. Churchill won the debate because the perimeter was able to be set up on the 26th, with Hitler striking down the Halt Order no perimeter is set up at all, Dunkirk is taken before the BEF even gets there, and they are surrounded and totally wiped out. In that case Churchill either asks for terms or loses a vote of No Confidence.

In terms of OP's question the terms could only be that Britain has no restrictions placed on it (no reparations, military restrictions, lost primary territory), prisoners exchanged, German future treaties with the continentals recognized, governments in exile expelled, probably no German offensive units based in conquered countries (naval, air, major armor forces) just occupation units. Perhaps German WW1 colonies held by Britain returned, maybe Malta to Italy. Definitely recognition of any colonial transfers from France or other European imperial powers.

I doubt that The BEF would have been compelled to Surrender in 4 days, and the decision to fight on was made before any substansial evacuation had taken place.

Hitler could not be relied upon to keep any agreement rendering negotiations pointless.
 

Deleted member 1487

I doubt that The BEF would have been compelled to Surrender in 4 days, and the decision to fight on was made before any substansial evacuation had taken place.

Hitler could not be relied upon to keep any agreement rendering negotiations pointless.
You're misunderstanding. I didn't say they would have totally capitulated in 4 days, just that there would be no mistake that they wouldn't be getting out, even 8000 men, by the 28th. IOTL on the 28th it was clear they'd be getting out tens of thousands of men, enough for the nucleus of a new army, ITTL by the 28th it would be clear the BEF was doomed, just a question of how many days until they surrendered after being cut off from the coast. Given the Belgian surrender on the 28th that would be the final nail in their coffin. Hitler's trustworthiness wouldn't matter when Churchill is removed by the Halifax coalition, which still dominated the Tory party as of May 1940.
 

hipper

Banned
You're misunderstanding. I didn't say they would have totally capitulated in 4 days, just that there would be no mistake that they wouldn't be getting out, even 8000 men, by the 28th. IOTL on the 28th it was clear they'd be getting out tens of thousands of men, enough for the nucleus of a new army, ITTL by the 28th it would be clear the BEF was doomed, just a question of how many days until they surrendered after being cut off from the coast. Given the Belgian surrender on the 28th that would be the final nail in their coffin. Hitler's trustworthiness wouldn't matter when Churchill is removed by the Halifax coalition, which still dominated the Tory party as of May 1940.

The planning Figure for Evacuating the BEF was 45,000 troops,However Britain evacuated 150,000 troops from France between late June and August after the Dunkirk evacuation had completed. There was no problem about a nucleus for a new army.

I always thought that the driving dynamic for Halifax was the thought that the evacuation would be unsuccessful.

Anyway Churchill could not have been clearer to the Cabinet, he planned to fight untill defeated whatever the cost. he was supported by the full cabinet which included labour members who would not back Halifax. The success of the Evacuation was irrelevant to the Cabinet discussion.
 
What I would think would be in the peace deal:...

Huge reparations in cash and gold. By 1940 the British hadn't actually incurred that much damage on Germany, but a victor can demand what he wants, and the Germans wouldn't necessarily have to demand an amount that would cripple Britain. They could ask for entirely reasonable financial reparations and benefit tremendously from them because of the size of the British economy. That enables even larger shipments from the USSR until the war with them starts.

....

In summary, the Germans were terribly sore about Versailles and their peace terms would be brutal. It's been said on here that asking an enemy what his terms are is effectively the same thing as agreeing to those terms. It makes sense; when a nation sues for peace it is essentially placing itself on its knees before the victor and asking what they must do to end the war. The UK in 1940 might have been in a position to refuse the German terms, but there would have been at least some public backlash as many people would view the German terms as fair, compared to their own personal risk of getting bombed. And the Germans could always have reacted with poison gas against the recalcitrant British.

So to edit down to the key points. One that a victor can demand what he wants and that the British were in the same position as the Germans at Versailles the answer is no to both. A conqueror may be able to demand what they want but Germany has not conquered Britain here and still remains in no position to conquer Britain unless it commits to actually finding out just how dreadfully the Sea Mammal That Laughs at Sensible Planning would perform. The Germans know they still face British superiority at sea even with the Italians on board and this also gives Vichy a stick to negotiate with for as long the British stop trying to sink their ships they can always threaten to send them off to join the English (obligatory hawk spit) and that will put an outright victory even further beyond Hitler's grasp.

Further there is the US with its big Navy and bigger factories, Hitler would like to fight them but after he has finished the Soviets. Finishing the Soviets would be a lot easier if the British are not blockading him. Thus a peace offer even by Hitler will be something he adjudges to be reasonable and conciliatory.

Also remember Hitler is on a timetable, he really wants to invade the USSR before they get dug in on their new frontiers so fighting a war against Britain must be something that can reasonably concluded by May 1941 because after that the focus of resources is east.

So actually Hitler is unable to completely eviscerate the British at the negotiating table in much the same manner he had to leave Vichy plenty of goodies likes fleets and colonies and even armies in those colonies because the British were still around.
 
Britain would probably lose some of its colonies to Italy; indeed, what did Italy want? Malta? What else?

Also, Hitler would probably demand 1648 borders for France but might be willing to compromise if this means getting Britain to make peace. At the very least, though, Hitler will insist on acquiring and annexing Alsace-Lorraine.
1648 borders for France mean for France the loss of Southern Lorraine, a bit of Barrois and Strasbourg.
And Franche-Comté, Artois, Roussillon, French Flanders, Savoy and Nice. Plus Montbéliard and the Comtat Venaissin.
Overall, weird borders.
 
Quite simply Hitler is in no position to force the British to do anything. He can probably get a free hand in europe, and some kind of "German-British Friendship pact" which isn't worth the paper it is written on. And get to get this he will have to release all POW's and probably allow any remaining British forces in Europe a orderly evacuation with equipment.
 
1648 borders for France mean for France the loss of Southern Lorraine, a bit of Barrois and Strasbourg.
And Franche-Comté, Artois, Roussillon, French Flanders, Savoy and Nice. Plus Montbéliard and the Comtat Venaissin.
Overall, weird borders.

always question what would happen with borders IF Germany really attempted a final treaty? was Nord Pas-de-Calais administered with Belgium as leverage or clue to their intentions?

always think they might have kept that region (Nord Pas-de-Calais) similar to Allied control of Saar after WWI? and then install themselves in Maginot Line fortifications (obviously re-constructed, re-oriented westward) that leaves Strasbourg and Longwy (?) on German side of line.

Maginot_Line_ln-en_svg.svg.png
 
-- but Germany is led by Adolf Hitler, and Hitler is not going to settle for a white peace after a year of war and all that German blood spilled in various countries he invaded. I suspect he would have wanted to punish the British in a Versailles-like fashion, and if they said no or began to look at their watches and quietly retreat towards the door, then Hitler would have threatened them with massive bombing raids or gas warfare, along the lines of Rotterdam. The British would have then chosen to weather that storm, knowing they could do so.
Actually from what I've read over the years Hitler more or less intended to offer the British a soft peace at worst, bordering on a white peace, and was surprised when the British opted to continue the war.
 
So to edit down to the key points. One that a victor can demand what he wants and that the British were in the same position as the Germans at Versailles the answer is no to both. A conqueror may be able to demand what they want but Germany has not conquered Britain here and still remains in no position to conquer Britain unless it commits to actually finding out just how dreadfully the Sea Mammal That Laughs at Sensible Planning would perform. The Germans know they still face British superiority at sea even with the Italians on board and this also gives Vichy a stick to negotiate with for as long the British stop trying to sink their ships they can always threaten to send them off to join the English (obligatory hawk spit) and that will put an outright victory even further beyond Hitler's grasp.
In other words, the Germans by their spectacular (and highly fortunate) victory have simply managed to escape from a small cage into a bigger one.

Thus a peace offer even by Hitler will be something he adjudges to be reasonable and conciliatory.
...and which London will adjudge to be outrageous and provocative. :)

Also remember Hitler is on a timetable, he really wants to invade the USSR before they get dug in on their new frontiers so fighting a war against Britain must be something that can reasonably concluded by May 1941 because after that the focus of resources is east.
Very much this. As far as the bad man is concerned everything up to this point is mere prologue to the real war.
 
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