WI the Boxer rebellion fizzled or in any case was never supported by the Qing and it never reached the foreign concessions in Zhili province and the Beijing legation quarters?
I would expect the near-term consequences to include:
No 8-nation alliance and Boxer expedition, and consequent looting and massacring of local Chinese on their expeditionary route
No Kaiser's "let's be Huns" speech.
No Russian Cossack occupation of Manchuria
No Boxer indemnity and therefore a less bad Qing dynasty fiscal situation
Less dynasty awareness of abject military helplessness
Less urgency for reform
Continued festering antiforeign sentiment
What are the consequences for China, the region and the world over the next decade and beyond?
For instance, will the lack of a Boxer rebellion necessarily butterfly away the Anglo-Japanese alliance and Russo-Japanese War?
If it does not, is China more likely to take an active role in wars or alliances?
In OTL, I believe China right after the Sino-Japanese War went into an "alliance" with Russia who was providing loans, but by the time of the Russo-Japanese war, Chinese opinion was more favorable to Japan than Russia, Japan was a more popular choice for overseas education, etc. A logical explanation for that might have been the greater brutality of the Russian forces than Japanese during the Boxer suppression and their broader trampling on Chinese sovereignty throughout Manchuria. In this ATL though, that doesn't happen.
I would expect the near-term consequences to include:
No 8-nation alliance and Boxer expedition, and consequent looting and massacring of local Chinese on their expeditionary route
No Kaiser's "let's be Huns" speech.
No Russian Cossack occupation of Manchuria
No Boxer indemnity and therefore a less bad Qing dynasty fiscal situation
Less dynasty awareness of abject military helplessness
Less urgency for reform
Continued festering antiforeign sentiment
What are the consequences for China, the region and the world over the next decade and beyond?
For instance, will the lack of a Boxer rebellion necessarily butterfly away the Anglo-Japanese alliance and Russo-Japanese War?
If it does not, is China more likely to take an active role in wars or alliances?
In OTL, I believe China right after the Sino-Japanese War went into an "alliance" with Russia who was providing loans, but by the time of the Russo-Japanese war, Chinese opinion was more favorable to Japan than Russia, Japan was a more popular choice for overseas education, etc. A logical explanation for that might have been the greater brutality of the Russian forces than Japanese during the Boxer suppression and their broader trampling on Chinese sovereignty throughout Manchuria. In this ATL though, that doesn't happen.
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