WI the Boxer rebellion fizzles before reaching Zhili & Beijing Legations?

What are the international consequences

  • This butterflies away Anglo-Japanese alliance

    Votes: 2 25.0%
  • Anglo-Japanese alliance still happens

    Votes: 6 75.0%
  • Butterflies away Russo-Japanese war

    Votes: 1 12.5%
  • Russo-Japanese war still happens

    Votes: 6 75.0%
  • China more likely to become an early belligerent in an R-J war or WWI-equivalent

    Votes: 2 25.0%
  • China no more likely to become an active belligerent in R-J War or WWI than OTL

    Votes: 4 50.0%

  • Total voters
    8

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
WI the Boxer rebellion fizzled or in any case was never supported by the Qing and it never reached the foreign concessions in Zhili province and the Beijing legation quarters?

I would expect the near-term consequences to include:
No 8-nation alliance and Boxer expedition, and consequent looting and massacring of local Chinese on their expeditionary route
No Kaiser's "let's be Huns" speech.
No Russian Cossack occupation of Manchuria
No Boxer indemnity and therefore a less bad Qing dynasty fiscal situation
Less dynasty awareness of abject military helplessness
Less urgency for reform
Continued festering antiforeign sentiment

What are the consequences for China, the region and the world over the next decade and beyond?

For instance, will the lack of a Boxer rebellion necessarily butterfly away the Anglo-Japanese alliance and Russo-Japanese War?

If it does not, is China more likely to take an active role in wars or alliances?

In OTL, I believe China right after the Sino-Japanese War went into an "alliance" with Russia who was providing loans, but by the time of the Russo-Japanese war, Chinese opinion was more favorable to Japan than Russia, Japan was a more popular choice for overseas education, etc. A logical explanation for that might have been the greater brutality of the Russian forces than Japanese during the Boxer suppression and their broader trampling on Chinese sovereignty throughout Manchuria. In this ATL though, that doesn't happen.
 
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raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
I think that a Qing regime that has not experienced the beat-down of the Boxer rebellion of OTL stands a greater chance of surviving through 1914. It also has a decent chance of deciding, if WWI breaks out along lines similar to OTL that year, that joining the CP side provides a long-sought opportunity to roll back the greatest number and most successful of China's foreign tormentors.
 
R-J would probably happen sooner or later anyway, given that Japan still owned Liaodong. On the other hand the Western powers would continue to carve out chunks of land from Qing (which OTL ceased after 1900 or so).
 
The 8-Nation Alliance made Japanese leadership more bold in their foreign policy, and helped them to shake off the shock caused by the Tripartite intervention. Now, the Russian railway Empire in Manchuria is still there regardless, and Aleksandr Mikhailovich Bezobrazov will continue to stir up trouble in Korea. For British leadership the inability to send troops to China during the Boer War was also a factor in their future foreign policy considerations.

For Manchus, the continued nominal control of their ancestral homelands and the survival of their northern Banner Armies is a huge bonus. The relations of southern viceroys and the court is also affected by this. Interesting POD, all in all.
 
Now, the real question is why would the revolt fizzle out? Floods and drought are still there. The railroads have still rendered the traditional economy obsolete. The trade deficit is still there, so taxes have to be increased. Naming someone else than Yuxian as the buzengshi of Shandong could work - Yuan Shikai? But even that is just playing a long game of whack-a-mole. A revolt of some sort was on the way, one way or another.
 
The Anglo-Japanese alliance talks were quite a long process so I can't see them being derailed this simply

The immediate catalyst for the Russo-Japanese War was Korea - Japan probably is not that interested in whether more than the Liaodong peninsular is in Russian hands here. It is the anger at Port Arthur, now Russian, and concerns over Korea, where their position is threatened by Russia
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Now, the real question is why would the revolt fizzle out? Floods and drought are still there. The railroads have still rendered the traditional economy obsolete. The trade deficit is still there, so taxes have to be increased. Naming someone else than Yuxian as the buzengshi of Shandong could work - Yuan Shikai? But even that is just playing a long game of whack-a-mole. A revolt of some sort was on the way, one way or another.
I can't think of any better, non-disruptive reason for it to fizzle than just regime repression and whack-a-mole. Maybe your Yuan Shikai idea. But are you thinking that if the Qing just play whack-a-mole whenever the Boxers get too close to foreigners, it could end encouraging an earlier set of anti-Qing provincial revolutions and secessions against a government willing to repress at home but never willing to stand up to the foreigners. So a Xinhai revolution earlier than OTL?
 
I can't think of any better, non-disruptive reason for it to fizzle than just regime repression and whack-a-mole. Maybe your Yuan Shikai idea. But are you thinking that if the Qing just play whack-a-mole whenever the Boxers get too close to foreigners, it could end encouraging an earlier set of anti-Qing provincial revolutions and secessions against a government willing to repress at home but never willing to stand up to the foreigners. So a Xinhai revolution earlier than OTL?
Yes. It was either the dynasty or the foreigners - someone was going to meet the wrath of the Boxers.The OTL treatment of the Boxers was at one level a conscious attempt to steer the revolt away from the dynasty itself - for all their faults, the Qing leaders knew that the dynasty could not survive another major revolt.
 
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