WI the Bourbons win the Battle of the Saintes?

raharris1973

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What if Britain never had its comeback naval victory at the Saintes in 1782 and the Bourbons won again?

How much of the Caribbean could the Bourbons claim, which spoils would go to Spain and which to France, and could the French gain concessions elsewhere in the globe (like India or Africa)?

Could the Dutch be made whole or even make some gains?
 
So seriously, what happens if the British don't reverse the tide of "Bourbonic Plague"?
Bourbons get some more islands in the Carribean? Maybe the Dutch gain some land in South India? Long term it is not possible for the Bourbons to keep naval supremacy because of financial problems, so during the French Revolutionary wars and Napoleonic wars Britain regains all of its lost territories and conquers much of India and few former Dutch colonies like OTL.
 
I'm in the middle of reading a naval history of that war but haven't gotten to the Saintes part yet. However, I gather that the French fleet was on its way to meet up with the Spanish fleet for a planned invasion of Jamaica.

So the immediate effect is a Franco-Spanish invasion of Jamaica.

One thing to consider is that you have to define "victory". During the battle, the British broke with the rigid linear tactics used in naval warfare of the time, and the looser game plan allowed them to break the French line. Is the POD that the British don't do this and you have yet another indecisive naval battle? Or do you want to get a decisive French win, which requires a more radical POD and also has much greater effects.

An actual decisive French win, as opposed to a draw, has huge effects because neither a decisive French win or a decisive British loss has ever happened in naval history, though maybe you can count the loss of the Prince of Wales and Repulse as a decisive British loss. But generally OTL their opponents are doing very well if they can get a draw. Since this is the major British fleet you could get an invasion of Britain and not just Jamaica out of this one. You could get the big revolution happen in Britain and not France. The battle is studied and has a big effect on naval tactics.

A draw, which is more likely, still means an attack on Jamaica and the British are in a position that nothing they can do can keep the French and Spanish from scooping up more of their sugar islands in the West Indies. There is no propaganda gain for the British government. These sugar islands are a big deal, something Americans tend to not understand, since the ruthless use of slave labor meant pure profit. The industrial revolution in Britain was funded by exploiting the slaves on these islands. If the French get more out of the war, the financial position of the monarchy is greatly strengthened, while the British are humiliated the way they weren't OTL and in worse financial straights.
 

raharris1973

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I'm in the middle of reading a naval history of that war but haven't gotten to the Saintes part yet. However, I gather that the French fleet was on its way to meet up with the Spanish fleet for a planned invasion of Jamaica.

So the immediate effect is a Franco-Spanish invasion of Jamaica.

A draw, which is more likely, still means an attack on Jamaica and the British are in a position that nothing they can do can keep the French and Spanish from scooping up more of their sugar islands in the West Indies. There is no propaganda gain for the British government. These sugar islands are a big deal, something Americans tend to not understand, since the ruthless use of slave labor meant pure profit. The industrial revolution in Britain was funded by exploiting the slaves on these islands. If the French get more out of the war, the financial position of the monarchy is greatly strengthened, while the British are humiliated the way they weren't OTL and in worse financial straights.

This alone is a serious divergence. With a French and Spanish Caribbean I suppose the mainline projection is that it gives France enough wealth to avoid the revolution, while slowing down British industrialization.

However, the other alternative is that the French Revolution happens anyway, perhaps a little later, as a result of systemic inefficiencies. And you could end up with Jamaica becoming a second Haiti.

And a revolutionary Britain stripped of its Caribbean sugar colonies might just be fine with that, aiding slave uprisings against the French and taking on emancipation as a cause because it injures France the most.
 
And a revolutionary Britain stripped of its Caribbean sugar colonies might just be fine with that, aiding slave uprisings against the French and taking on emancipation as a cause because it injures France the most.

Britain will still want the islands - they are too valuable not to have. The French Republic OTL still wanted Saint-Domingue and Guadeloupe on its side, just without slavery.
 

raharris1973

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Britain will still want the islands - they are too valuable not to have. The French Republic OTL still wanted Saint-Domingue and Guadeloupe on its side, just without slavery.

protectorates or crown colonies then, but emancipated, but also with things set up so that people need to work on raising and harvesting high-value cash-crops.
 
As many have wrote, there are a number of hypothesis on how the French (the Spanish were not at Saintes) could "win" the battle.

0. OTL, de Grasse asked to be removed from command in October 1781. Vaudreuil would be in command in 1782, but this would also butterfly away "the" Saintes
1. On April 9, de Grasse and Hood sparred a row of distant cannonfire. A first PoD could be a pursuit of Hood's squadron (12 ships) by de Grasse's fleet (31 ships)
1.a. Hood is defeated, maybe captured or even killed (with far more extensive consequences, as Hood was Nelson's mentor)
1.b. Hood's squadron have to disengage and flee and cannot regroup with Rodney's main fleet
2. On April 10, FS Zélé is not accidented and need no towing. When Rodney (37 ships) appears on April 12, de Grasse can refuse the fight and try to regroup with the Spanish (as ordered by the Ministry)
3. During the OTL fight, the signals are better understood.
3.a. Bougainville's squadron slows down in order to keep the line intact.
3.b. When the center of the french line is trapped, Bougainville turns back to save it.

Any way, if the battle is a bloodless draw, a bloody draw or a victory, it is still positive for the French, as they can expect the Spanish squadron (12 ships) while the British cannot reinforce the West India Station with so many ships on a short notice. The French had had some success in islands invasions (Saint Kitts in February), so a successful landing in Jamaica is possible.
 

raharris1973

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Had the Bourbons agreed on which or their countries would keep Jamaica if they seized it from the British? Spain had a historical claim, but if French ships and soldiers were the mainstay of the capture campaign, maybe France would want to hold it.
 
Had the Bourbons agreed on which or their countries would keep Jamaica if they seized it from the British? Spain had a historical claim, but if French ships and soldiers were the mainstay of the capture campaign, maybe France would want to hold it.

If I remember right, Jamaica was a stated war goal of Spain alongside Florida and Gibraltar.
 

raharris1973

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If I remember right, Jamaica was a stated war goal of Spain alongside Florida and Gibraltar.

And Spain also claimed and operated in the Bahamas I think.

So if the Bourbons go from strength to strength in the Caribbean, the distribution of spoils is-

Spain: Bahamas, Jamaica, British Honduras, British Miskito Coast

France: All of the British Lesser Antilles, with Trinidad as the largest prize. British Guyana, if there was one at the time.

Netherlands: Nothing
 
And Spain also claimed and operated in the Bahamas I think.

So if the Bourbons go from strength to strength in the Caribbean, the distribution of spoils is-

Spain: Bahamas, Jamaica, British Honduras, British Miskito Coast

France: All of the British Lesser Antilles, with Trinidad as the largest prize. British Guyana, if there was one at the time.

Netherlands: Nothing

Maybe claiming all of the British West Indies is too much. OTL, no Great power was ever deprived of all its sugar islands in a peace settlement.
 
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