WI The Bloc Québécois lost all their seats in the 2011 federal election?

In the 2011 Canadian federal election, the Bloc Québécois achieved it's worst ever result, losing 43 seats due to the NDP's surge in support. They came dangerously close to losing all of their seats, with the majority of the seats that they kept only being won by 2% or less. What if they lost all of their seats? Would the Bloc go the way of Social Credit, fading into irrelevancy? Or would they recover in the next election?

What do you think?
 
Its hard to see the Bloc completely fading given those parameters. The underlying sentiments are still there and barring a change from OTL redirecting those sentiments into different parties (what happened with Social Credit) I don't see it happening.

Perhaps in a TL where Jack Layton lives longer and can consolidate the NDP's gains in Quebec and then Maxime Bernier succeeds Harper instead of Scheer? That could scoop up enough of the BQ votes to render the remainder politically irrelevant for a time. Though I don't see Bernier lasting long as head of the CPC in TTL so I'd imagine that once he's gone the BQ could reassert itself.
 
Its hard to see the Bloc completely fading given those parameters. The underlying sentiments are still there and barring a change from OTL redirecting those sentiments into different parties (what happened with Social Credit) I don't see it happening.

Perhaps in a TL where Jack Layton lives longer and can consolidate the NDP's gains in Quebec and then Maxime Bernier succeeds Harper instead of Scheer? That could scoop up enough of the BQ votes to render the remainder politically irrelevant for a time. Though I don't see Bernier lasting long as head of the CPC in TTL so I'd imagine that once he's gone the BQ could reassert itself.
I think a more likely scenario to keep the Bloc from rising in 2019 would be that the NDP elects another Quebecer to replace Mulcair.
 
Does such a thing have an effect on Quebec provincial politics? IIRC, they have their own set of parties (along with the Quebec Liberals)
The Parti Quebecois barely won the 2012 Quebec provincial election, despite polls being higher for them. Perhaps, Charest and the Quebec Liberals win a minority instead?
 
Last edited:
I think a more likely scenario to keep the Bloc from rising in 2019 would be that the NDP elects another Quebecer to replace Mulcair.
Who though? Guy Caron? That might keep the NDP somewhat afloat in Quebec, but they're really going to struggle with urban progressives in the rest of Canada (hence why he came in 4th in OTL, hard to see how he replaces Mulcair). I doubt they win many more seats or seriously threaten the Bloc's resurgence.

Also worth noting that the NDP hold over Quebec was already weakening under Mulcair in 2015. For the Bloc to truly die out it, would need a more prolonged decline or would need to be effectively replaced by successor parties like the PC's were (BQ/Reform). As a mea culpa, I honestly thought the Bloc were on this pathway to becoming dead after 2011/2015. I totally did not see their current resurgence at all.

However, to answer the OP, after doing some more research I think the BQ is a product of the constitutional debates in the 80s and 90s. Without changing those, (hell, even if you do...) there's always going to be a BQ-esque party around.
 
Who though? Guy Caron? That might keep the NDP somewhat afloat in Quebec, but they're really going to struggle with urban progressives in the rest of Canada (hence why he came in 4th in OTL, hard to see how he replaces Mulcair). I doubt they win many more seats or seriously threaten the Bloc's resurgence. Also worth noting that the NDP hold over Quebec was already weakening under Mulcair in 2015. For the Bloc to truly die out it, would need a more prolonged decline or would need to be effectively replaced by successor parties like the PC's were (BQ/Reform). As a mea culpa, I honestly thought the Bloc were on this pathway to becoming dead after 2011/2015. I totally did not see their current resurgence at all.

However, to answer the OP, after doing some more research I think the BQ is a product of the constitutional debates in the 80s and 90s. Without changing those, (hell, even if you do...) there's always going to be a BQ-esque party around.

No, I meant Ruth Ellen Brosseau or Alexandre Boulerice. The NDP didn't well in 2015 because Mulcair moved the party to the centre. If he hadn't, the NDP would've done better.
 
Top