WI the BEIC loses the Battle of Buxar?

SunDeep

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IOTL, the Battle of Buxar and its aftermaths laid the foundations which would ultimately lead to the establishment of the British Raj. However, the battle was won not because of the BEIC's strength, but because of the weakness of the fragmented coalition armies of the Mughals, Awadh and Bengal. In an ATL where the coalition armies launch a coordinated attack against Hector Munro's army and achieve a decisive victory, what happens next? Are the British forced to withdraw from India? Can the Mughal Empire endure ITTL, or will its demise be more akin to that of the Qing Dynasty in OTL's China? And can any of the kingdoms in India repel colonial incursions and pull off a Meiji-style modernisation?
 
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IOTL, the Battle of Buxar and its aftermaths laid the foundations which would ultimately lead to the establishment of the British Raj. However, the battle was won not because of the BEIC's strength, but because of the weakness of the fragmented coalition armies of the Mughals, Awadh and Bengal. In an ATL where the coalition armies launch a coordinated attack against Hector Munro's army and achieve a decisive victory, what happens next? Are the British forced to withdraw from India? Can the Mughal Empire endure ITTL, or will its demise be more akin to that of the Qing Dynasty in OTL's China? And can any of the kingdoms in India repel colonial incursions and pull off a Meiji-style modernisation?

The Emperor remains nominal head of an Empire that barely recognises him. Over time, it was conceivable for the Empire to be resurgent (Shah Alam II instituted reforms which did help make the Mughal Army arguably the second best army on the subcontinent)... however there is also an equal chance that he stays nominal head.

IMO, you'd see individual regions become a lot more stronger in India- in a way the Mughal Empire disseminated; a lot of the courtiers began to go to regional courts, so you'll see a cultural renaissance in Bengal and Awadh. If not a resurgent Mughal Empire, Bengal would arguably be the first to pull off industrialisation in India.

The British would not be driven completely from India- even if the coalition is able to turn back the British entirely from Bengal, they still have Bombay and Madras. But I'd wager the French would take the opportunity to strike at the opportune moment, so I think Britain might refocus back to Bombay, while France basically maintains a sphere of influence of various degrees throughout India.

At this point in time, though, you still have Haidar Ali in Mysore, so even the South won't be isolated from the events in the North- things would get interesting, I think.
 
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