WI The Battle of Leipzig is a french victory

Napoleon has his biggest victory at Leipzig, would the coalition of the allies collaps?
Perhaps an alternate Conges of Vienna any suggestions?
Perhaps a fully restored Kingdom of Poland?
 
Poland was already reoccupied by Prussia and Russia by 1813. IMO, anything east of the Elbe is a foregone conclusion even if Napoleon wins at the Battle Of Nations.
But if Nappy wins the battle, he'll have a lot to gain. The Coalition will be dismantled and its member countries might give up on trying to defeat Napoleon now that he's earned a reputation for invincibility. To the west, the british could end up finding a negotiated peace better than keeping on -- Iberia was already in the british camp. As for France, Napoleon could use such a period of peace and a longer life in control of the country to better consolidate his position and prompt the first empire's survival. That is, if an opportunity for more conquest doesn't show up, as we know how much of a power glutton he was.
 
Poland was already reoccupied by Prussia and Russia by 1813. IMO, anything east of the Elbe is a foregone conclusion even if Napoleon wins at the Battle Of Nations.
But if Nappy wins the battle, he'll have a lot to gain. The Coalition will be dismantled and its member countries might give up on trying to defeat Napoleon now that he's earned a reputation for invincibility. To the west, the british could end up finding a negotiated peace better than keeping on -- Iberia was already in the british camp. As for France, Napoleon could use such a period of peace and a longer life in control of the country to better consolidate his position and prompt the first empire's survival. That is, if an opportunity for more conquest doesn't show up, as we know how much of a power glutton he was.

Firstly, the Continental Allies will not make peace.

Why should they when they have seen Bonaparte repeatedly defeated in person

They will see this setback just as they did Lutzen and Bautzen,
the struggles of a doomed beast caught in the net of it's own arrogance.

They might agree to another temporary armistice
but only because they know they are in a position to make better use of any delay than Bonaparte.

Secondly, Britain will not make peace.
They did not after Austerlitz or Jena or Wagram.
Why should they now when their Naval stranglehold is a tight as ever
and they themselves have driven Bonaparte out Spain humiliating Marshal after Marshal?

Thirdly, Napoleon cannot afford to make peace that leaves him only the ruler of France while still at war with Britain at sea and in Spain with (potentially) hostile nations across the Rhine.

France is bankrupt and cannot rebuild under blockade.

His plans for the Navy are pure fantasy
- building the ships may be possible, creating a fighting navy is not in any practical timescale.

As to the army, there was already a man power crisis.
Conscripts for 1814 have already been called up and of them many had taken to the hills rather than serve.

Smuggling and other evasions are rife in the civilian population.

His only support in among the existing army, and even there was shakier than he liked.
It was not just personal feeling that lead him to say iOTL "Peace? No peace till Munich is in Flames!"

Fourthly, Bonaparte's personality would never accept any limits to his ambition.
He was after all refusing the offers of France's "natural" borders as late as 1814
with Allied armies already marching into France.

It genuinely was all or nothing for him, both practically and psychologically

So even if he wins at Leizig, he has to go forward again

Brer Rabbit, grabbing at the tar baby.
 
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Napoleon has his biggest victory at Leipzig, would the coalition of the allies collaps?
Perhaps an alternate Conges of Vienna any suggestions?
Perhaps a fully restored Kingdom of Poland?
At one point the monarchs of the Coalition had been directly attacked and chased by French cavalry due to bad luck. What if they lost their lifes? Would the Allied side collapse as a result of such a catastrophe ?
 
As Alan said, Even if Leipzig is a French victory, the Coalition will not even remotely surrender...the allies had followed a policy of delay Napoleon and only seriously fight battles against Napoleon's Marshals if Napoleon isn't there. The years have shown that Napoleon isn't the invincible beast that the Coalition feared, but he is still a pretty formidable general. At the end of the day, the goal is to depose Napoleon in favor of...well whomever the Coalition wants as King of France (since at the moment it was not a forgone conclusion that Louis XVIII was going to inherit).
 
As Alan said, Even if Leipzig is a French victory, the Coalition will not even remotely surrender...the allies had followed a policy of delay Napoleon and only seriously fight battles against Napoleon's Marshals if Napoleon isn't there. The years have shown that Napoleon isn't the invincible beast that the Coalition feared, but he is still a pretty formidable general. At the end of the day, the goal is to depose Napoleon in favor of...well whomever the Coalition wants as King of France (since at the moment it was not a forgone conclusion that Louis XVIII was going to inherit).
It depends largely on the scale of victory.If something like half the Coalition army gets wiped out,there's gonna be some drastic changes--especially if it involves something like the Coalition leaders getting killed/captured like someone suggested.
 
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What kind of victory? Or we talking a Wagram-type victory or an Austerlitz-type victory?
I know this is Napoleon we're talking about, but have a really hard time seeing the latter. He's surrounded on all sides by superior forces, with a golden bridge to retreat across at his back. I could see him winning what would become the Leipzig campaign at least theoretically, though it wouldn't be at Leipzig. For example, once the Army of Silesia crosses the Elbe at Wartenburg, they might be caught on their own and destroyed, or Napoleon might not take the bait and make a heavy blow against the Army of Bohemia in the South.
 
Firstly, the Continental Allies will not make peace.

Why should they when they have seen Bonaparte repeatedly defeated in person

Have they? Only in Russia, and that was as much self-inflicted (invading too far beyond what was logistically possible) as anything.
 
Have they? Only in Russia, and that was as much self-inflicted (invading too far beyond what was logistically possible) as anything.

The Austrians will certainly remember Aspern Essling for a start
The Russians Eylau as well as multiple fights in 1812.

and as for being "self inflicted"

take a look at the changes in the form and nature of Bonaparte's battlefield maneuvers over time.
As his enemies became less fragile and his own army less flexible he could not adapt his tactics.
The result was he adopted larger and larger formations which resulted in higher and higher casualties.
A prime example is at Wagram where McDonald took 6,500 out of 8,000 in breaking into the Austrian position.

In addition Bonaparte was losing his instinct for when to "go for the throat"
i.e. turn a temporary ascendancy into a decisive victory.

This failing is well known at Borodino in 1812 and later at Waterloo but showed at other fights as well.
e.g. at Wagram when Bonaparte would not commit the curassiers to exploit McDonalds sacrifice.
The result was that though the Austrian retreated they did so in good order
taking with them 7,000 French prisoners, 12 eagles and 21 French guns
after inflicting almost as many casualties as they took.

Ironically this "caution" was true as early as Austerlitz despite often being considered Bonapartes greatest victory.
After the success of his pre planned counter attack in the center,
Bonaparte chose to abandon his stated intent to envelop the allies right and instead relieve Davout on his own right.
That would have been a great risk but if successful would have knocked out the Russian contingent as well as the Austrian.

Such a victory might have seen a "Tilsit" like settlement in late 1805 rather than 1807
and avoided the Prussian campaign of 1806 entirely.
 
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