WI: the Basmachi Revolt had Succeeded

So, some weird PoD leads either/both to the Bolsheviks being unwilling/unable to project power into Central Asia and to British support of the Basmachi. This in turn leads to an independent, non-communist Turkestan with, funnily enough, a northern border strikingly similar to OTL's southern Kazakh border (may or may not include areas of eastern Kazakhstan).

What could this PoD be? What borders could/would it have? What would be the consequenses of this state's existence?
 
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So, some weird PoD leads either/both to the Bolsheviks being unwilling/unable to project power into Central Asia and to British support of the Basmachi. This in turn leads to an independent, non-communist Turkestan with, funnily enough, a northern border strikingly similar to OTL's southern Kazakh border (may or may not include areas of eastern Kazakhstan).

What could this PoD be? What borders could/would it have? What would be the consequenses of this state's existence?
Unwilling? Well, some chain of events far outside of the region's borders, but I do have trouble imagining it, short of all-out disintegration of Soviet Union under external threat. Unable? ASB. Short of direct European military intervention in region there's nothing local there able to stop the Red Army.What could Britons do to turn medieval nomad hordes into something able to find modern army? Give them planes, tanks and artillery and see the stuff broken down within 10 days of being delivered (I had some personal, although very limited, experience with Soviet Army recruits from Basmachi heartlands and those guys possessed truly exceptional ability to break things, even after half-century of "enlightement" of sorts, anything more complicated than bolt-action rifle or AK-47 is too complicated for them) or "liberated" by Reds (Red Army was in dire need of modern miltary tech in 1920s, they would sure be glad to have this supply channel)?
 
New variable: the Red Army (due to a much poorer commander than IOTL and/or some other factor(s)) fails to capture Ekaterinburg in early 1919, leading to a more consolidated--that is, difficult to destroy--Siberian government and a weaker army in the East for a few months, necessitating rebuilding of said army.
 
Okay, assuming the Soviet conquest of Central Asia is delayed by months or years, what sort of government would emerge (for the Soviets to crush later, much like they did with the Caucasian republics)?

Might there be some kind of resurgence of Bokhara, Samarkand, and other little polities that were conquered by the Czarist Russian Empire earlier? Some of them were conquered as late as the 1880s, so there'd be people who'd remember them.

And CG, I think it's a bit harsh to say the Kazakhs, Uzbeks, etc were "medieval nomad hordes." For starters, I think they were sedentary farmers now.
 
Well, it'd certainly be a bit of a stretch [understatement alert] for there to be a unitary state constructed, given the historically divided nature of the region and the personal emnities between Basmachi leaders. Still, they're not absolutely stupid, they know that both Russias to their north want their territory, and they know that the British policymakers are fickle in the extreme.

Domestically, I would imagine a confederation or, at strongest, a federation emerging (the centrifugal forces here, though strong, aren't as strong as the Caucuses, where there were linguistic, religious, and ethnic differences as opposed to a relatively homogeneous Turkish-speaking Muslim population). In foreign policy, I'd imagine that they'd try to play White and Red Russia against each other, and prevent them from moving south. This could involve buying the favor of one power or the other through economic concessions, or some other strategy. In addition, they'd try to garner a GoI for ten years (that's probably the most they'd get) from the British. I could also see them attempting union with Xinjiang, though success would be...difficult.
 
Might there be some kind of resurgence of Bokhara, Samarkand, and other little polities that were conquered by the Czarist Russian Empire earlier? Some of them were conquered as late as the 1880s, so there'd be people who'd remember them.
AFAIK Soviets created number of puppet regimes in "khanates" IOTL. Same development ITTL, couple of years later

And CG, I think it's a bit harsh to say the Kazakhs, Uzbeks, etc were "medieval nomad hordes." For starters, I think they were sedentary farmers now.
"Bitter writing" is my middle name :), but I was not exaggregating all that much. Kazakhs (who weren't the core of Basmachi) are nomads even today (the way today Mongols are, with many sedentiary and urban elements) and nomadic groups were Basmachi's backbone is Uzbek lands. Medieval hordes with "liberated" and British-supplied rifles, that's what they were.
 
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