WI the AWB doesn't join the AVF reinforcement of the Bophuthatswana Defense Force

WI during last minute negotiations, Constand Viljoen of the Afrikaner Volksfront and General Jack Turner of the Bop Defense Force convince Terre Blanche to peaceably withdraw his AWB militiamen from Bop before the dawn of 11 March? In this scenario, let's assume that the AWB men don't start randomly gunning down civilians (nobody's out and about at 0200 or 0300), and subsequently the BDF does not hinder their withdrawal from Bop. However, the Volksfront men stay and reinforce the BDF as per Magope's original request.

What sorts of implications would this have on the fall of Magope's doomed regime in Bop and the general anti-election/anti-ANC coalition in SA?
 
Okay, maybe the initial POD was a bit obscure. How about broadening discussion to include ways in which we could get both Bophuthatswana and Kwazulu from leaving the anti-ANC coalition and leaving the Volksfront dangling in the air with no hope of delaying the general election.
 
Maybe a more deadly Shell House Incident resulting in the fatal wounding of a couple more prominent Inkatha Freedom Party protestors? I'm really grasping at straws here :eek:
 
Times were very confused, and it is a bit hard to get a handle on this one. One option would be for the AVF and Mangope to form an alliance and unite the fragmented parts of Bophuthatswana, and carry on to "liberate"a corridor down to the northern west coast. The alliance could have a stated aim of establishing a Volks staat for the Afrikaaner component, and establishing Bop as a viable geographical entity.

Militarily, if unopposed by staturory forces, the alliance would have been unstoppable, particulalry as Viljoen could have mobilised his loyalists.

I dont believe the then SADF would have been toó keen on opposing Viljoen; If the ANC had tried to intervene, the opposite would have applied possibly - the SADF may have seized the opportunity to squash what they could. Any way, end result, civil war.
 
Huh... how likely might such a scenario be? I know there're innumerable factors at work here, but would things escalate so quickly?
 
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